The key will be getting some help from starters not named Justin Verlander. Doug Fister, Rick Porcello and Max Scherzer should be much better than they’ve shown, but if they don’t produce soon, I’d expect to see the Tigers buying at the trade deadline.
I don’t think Cleveland and the White Sox can continue to do what they’ve done in the past month or so for the rest of the season, so I see things falling into place in Detroit. Chicago doesn’t have the arms to keep pace with the Tigers’ lineup.
Also, look for San Francisco to push the Dodgers in the weak NL West. It’s so bad, I think the NCAA Champ Arizona Wildcats just got invited into the division bring it some legitimacy.
Neill: The Nationals shall crumble. Mark my words. Oh, so will my Orioles. But it’ll hurt more for those fair-weather fans in D.C.
Which players aren’t being mentioned right now for MVP who nevertheless stand the best chance of winning?
Joe: I think Jose Bautista will backdoor an AL MVP race that should be wide open come September. His numbers are all in line with his last two seasons, except for his BABIP. It’s criminally low at .215, meaning he’s been horribly unlucky so far. Once his luck bounces back to the norm, people will start showing him some love.
James: The two players I see coming out of the AL as MVP possibilities are Adam Jones and Albert Pujols. Jones has put together a fantastic campaign thus far, hitting .289 with 20 homers and 44 RBIs. He’s a five-tool player who will have to be in the MVP discussion as long as the Orioles remain competitive.
And you can’t ever count out Pujols. Now that he’s coming around in the AL and less focused on meeting the expectations of his contract, I expect him to lead a surging Angels team to the Wild Card.
For the NL, it’s David Wright and Hunter Pence. Wright has to be considered a candidate for MVP if the Mets remain in the playoff race. His power numbers are not what they were, but no one is more important to his team’s chances. Similarly, Pence could garner some votes if the Phillies catch fire in the second half. He’s been one of the few brights spot so far on that team.
Adam: David Wright has been essential to the Mets’ success, but the key to New York’s stretch run will be R.A. Dickey. And if the Mets are on pace for a Wild Card spot late in the season, he should be in the MVP conversation.
Dickey has been the story of the season, and despite that, his success can’t be overstated. Not only is he a knuckleballer who wins consistently (which is rare enough), he’s doing so while throwing strikes, striking hitters out and avoiding walks at rates that are elite for traditional pitchers, much less those who rely on one fluttering pitch. The most striking stat to come out of the first half for me has been Dickey’s number of wild pitches. He has one. We are watching something unprecedented in the history of baseball, and that has to count for something.
Neill: Can I throw out Ronny Paulino (the Orioles’ backup catcher) for this one? No? How about Mark Reynolds’ fielding coach? I must admit, I haven’t paid much attention to the MVP races, because there’s just too much baseball left to be played. Albert Pujols, for example, could crush the ball in the second half and win MVP. It’s so open. As a matter of fact, I’m taking Pujols. I’m taking Pujols in the AL, and Dickey (wishful I know) in the NL. God, I love R.A. Dickey.
Can Josh Hamilton win the Triple Crown?
Joe: He can, but I don’t think he will. His stats are in the ballpark, and he has the help around him, but average will hold him back. He’s at .308 right now, and has a long way to go to catch the guys batting in the .330s.
James: If anyone can this year, it will be Josh Hamilton. The man just knows how to mash the ball. However, I do not think he will because of injuries down the line. He hasn’t shown the durability to last a full season, and could end up falling far behind Robinson Cano in the race for the AL batting title.
Adam: No. Winning the Triple Crown requires a season of full health, uncanny consistency and little competition from one-dimensional players (speedy singles hitters, home run hitting DHs, etc.). All three won’t line up for Hamilton this season.
Neill: Josh Hamilton already won the triple crown once. He was shooting up heroin while doing shots of tequila in a back room in a bar in Texas right before going home with three gorgeous Texas blondes. He can do it again. I believe in you, Josh.
Who will be the biggest name to move before the trade deadline, and where will he land?
Joe: I don’t think Cole Hamels is going anywhere. Ruben Amaro Jr. has a reputation as a dealer, but it’s a bit misrepresented. The deals he has made involving Lee, Pence and Oswalt were no-brainers at the time, and the Phillies still have a good chance at re-signing Hamels.

Instead, I think Matt Garza will be the biggest name to move. Theo Epstein is building from scratch and will have no interest in keeping such an expensive pitcher on his roster. Teams like the Yankees, Red Sox, Orioles, Blue Jays and Dodgers are all seeking arms, and the combination of a motivated seller and multiple buyers means we’ll get a deal.
James: I think Cole Hamels gets traded to the Texas Rangers. The Phillies are getting older, and their window is closing fast. The Rangers, meanwhile, are aggressive and will make a strong push for the left hander. They have the prospects to do the trade and the money to keep him.
Adam: Zack Greinke. While Hamels has attracted much of the attention so far, Greinke is just as good and on a team that’s also going nowhere. The difference is that the Phillies have pieces on the DL (Howard, Utley) to justify sticking it out for a little while longer. Milwaukee’s time has come and gone quicker than it would have liked, and retooling while Ryan Braun is still a star will take some major moves in the short term.
Neill: As much as I want to see Zach Greinke to the O’s, I think he’s staying put. I like James’ Hamels pick. I’ve heard the Justin Upton to Atlanta rumors, but I’m not sure he’ll end up there, so I’m going to go with Garza and Ryan Dempster to the Dodgers.
Why are the Phillies so bad? Can they turn it around? What about the Tigers?
James: The Phillies are so bad for a number of reasons. They’ve had a lot of injuries, they lack great leadership, can’t hit and are getting older. Losing Roy Halladay, Ryan Howard and Chase Utley has hurt far more than expected.
As for the Tigers, I believe the team simply hasn’t come together quite yet. Detroit doesn’t have the necessary chemistry, and their pitching has struggled at times. However, I do see them bouncing back as the schedule gets easier.
Adam: Let me count the ways when it comes to the Phillies. The supposed cakewalk of an NL East suddenly turned tough. Cliff Lee has one win, and the most devastating part is that he hasn’t pitched all that bad. The lineup is so thin that Freddy Galvis starts. Juan Pierre is one of Philadelphia’s best at getting on base. This is a team suddenly in need of rebuilding, and expect Hamels and Shane Victorino to be among the ones gone before things get better.
I addressed the Tigers a bit earlier, but the bottom line is that it comes down to pitching. The Detroit lineup can hold its own, and Justin Verlander will always be a force. The question is whether they can make the move at the deadline to add another reliable pitcher. Do that, and this is not a team you want to face in a five-game series.
Neill: The Phillies are literally falling apart. Injuries keep racking up, and even though Shane Victorino and Jimmy Rollins lead the league in smiles, it’s just not enough. All those bandwagon fans jumping ship is pretty fun to watch though. Imagine how sad all these girls are going to be come October when they can’t show off their brand-spanking new custom MLB jersey that reads “Mrs. Pence” on the back?
The Tigers can turn it around because they just need to gel and get into their comfort zone. Plus, the weak division helps their chances.
What is the biggest story in baseball no one is talking about?
James: The biggest story that no one is talking about (yet) is that Mariano Rivera will be back to pitch in 2012. He will be there this October. Count on it.
Another would be how the new CBA is affecting the way teams do business. Franchises can’t recoup draft picks anymore if they pick up type A and B free agent to be at the trade deadline. The 2014 luxury tax is also forcing teams to cut their payroll and win wth homegrown talent. GMs are going to have to be more clever with where they allocate their funds going forward.
Adam: I
might be a
bit biased, but I think the Marlins struggles have gotten very little coverage compared with the hype when they started the season. The implosion has simply happened quicker than anyone expected. Heath Bell has lost his job more times than
Billy Martin in the '80s. Starting first baseman Gaby Sanchez got demoted. Josh Johnson is a different (worse) pitcher. And the lone bright spot just underwent surgery. This is a Marlins team that was supposed to cruise to an NL East title and contend for the World Series, and halfway through, they can’t get out of their own way.
Neill: R.A. Dickey is the biggest story no one is talking about. Yes, I’ve seen the Sportscenter Sunday conversations. Yep, read the ESPN/MLB.com/SI articles too. But I just want people to truly think about what Dickey has been able to accomplish, not just this year, but since joining the Mets in 2010.
I don’t care how amazing his knuckleball is. I don’t care about the scoreless inning streak (which was downright beautiful). The fact of the matter is, R.A. Dickey is a victim of sexual abuse; a vile, disgusting crime that is
all too prevalent in our society today.
Victims of sexual abuse routinely succumb to personality disorders, suicidal ideations, and multiple academic, professional and interpersonal problems. These voiceless figures don’t have families, children, a support system or meaningful opportunities to overcome their horrid pasts. They suffer in the dark, in the shadows of society as victims whom people feel sorry for, but never dare to help or understand.
R.A. Dickey singlehandedly stood up for victims of sexual abuse everywhere and proved there’s hope. He proved there is a chance for them to succeed. He proved that yes, the road is arduous and sometimes overwhelming, but the path to any semblance of normalcy exists. Dickey’s story is one that can never be told too much or too often, and it is my sincerest belief that he will inspire scores of victims across the country to speak out and start their own personal healing process. Let us never forget R.A. Dickey.
The Pirates have surprised not just because they’ve got the third-best record in the league, but because they’re doing it while barely hitting. Does this continue through the second half?
Joe: It is really kind of amazing how well they’ve done despite an inability to score runs. While I don’t think the Pirates will fall off a cliff the way they did last year, I do think they will fall off pace a little because the lack of offense leaves them walking a fine line in a division with two juggernauts in the Reds and Cardinals.
What the Pirates do at the trade deadline will be fascinating. They have a deep farm system that they can leverage into a quality major league hitter. But after years of ignoring the riches that could be found in the draft, teams are
probably overvaluing their prospects. So the Pirates could sell the farm to land a Justin Upton type player, or they can be a little more conservative and go after Carlos Quentin or Chase Headley. Winning now adds more to the bottom line than potential future wins, and the Pirates should make a move to secure their first .500 season in years.
Adam: Obviously, I think they’re due for a drastic fall at some point soon. The only way they can stay competitive is to add a player or two at the deadline, preferably a power hitter and third starter. That makes these next two weeks absolutely crucial. If the Pirates come out of the break and immediately falter, they could be in third place by the time the trade deadline rolls around. If that happens, it will be much harder to convince the penny-pinchers in the front office to shell out for a big acquisition.
Neill: Just realized that I put a lot into that last response. Feeling extra sleepy and winded now. Saw the Orioles play the Pirates. Think the Orioles took two of three. The Pirates’ lineup around McCutchen is so weak that they can’t sustain their success. Not in this day and age. Their bats won’t carry them through a tough stretch in the schedule, and especially not deep into October.
Which player has impressed you the most thus far?
Joe: I’m in love with Andrew McCutchen. There was no doubting his talent before, but he’s taken it to another level. McCutchen is hitting .362/.414/.625 while playing quality defense at a premium position and racking up a 4.5 WAR. Not to mention his 14 stolen bases at a success rate just under 80%. There’s nothing this guy can’t do.
James: No one comes close to R.A. Dickey. What a phenomenal story. A guy who is in his late 30s having his best career year right after telling the story of his awful sexual abuse as a child. Beyond that, he is the last remaining knuckler. It has been wonderful watching Dickey pitch, and I only hope he continues to succeed.
Adam: Dickey and McCutchen have been great to watch. But Giancarlo Stanton is who I have to go with. He’s 22 years old, with 19 home runs and 50 RBI on a bad team, and has been a bit overlooked because of Bryce Harper and Mike Trout. But he had arguably the
best month of May out of anyone in the league (1.201 OPS), and was just as valuable to his team as Dickey or McCutchen. It’s a shame that he’ll have to miss extended time due to injury.
Neill: Paulino’s still got my vote. The way he warms up Orioles bullpen pitchers is Yogi Berra-esque. He’s the modern day Roy Campanella.
As much as it pains me, I have been genuinely impressed by Robinson Cano. He’s been unstoppable. Even so, I’m taking this time to thank Kansas City and the entire Royals fanbase for my second favorite moment in All-Star week history (next to Cal Ripken’s homer in ’01), when they treated Cano the way he deserved for leaving Billy Butler off his Home Run Derby squad. Kudos to you, KC. Let him hear it.
And who has been the most disappointing?
James: The most disappointing player for me has to be Albert Pujols. I understand that it takes time to adjust to a new league, but we’re talking about “The Machine.” He’s arguably the best hitter, not only of our generation, but of all time. Nevertheless, he’s been, dare I say, human in his endeavors thus far on the left coast.
Adam: For me, it’s Tim Lincecum. There’s been rampant speculation that he’s not completely healthy, which would be a shame if the Giants are insisting on throwing him out there every few days. Whether it’s due to injury or something else, though, there is something seriously wrong with Lincecum’s mechanics. His front foot is landing too soon to let his arm rotate far enough toward its release point, jarring the body and resulting in a lot more pitches left up in the zone. That should be a simple fix, but with Lincecum’s unorthodox delivery, it’s likely a more delicate procedure than usual.
Neill: Love this question because it doubles as my comeback story for the second half of the season. Tim Lincecum has been a shell of his former self, and it’s all been put out there for the world to see. I’ve heard it from beat reporters, clubhouse managers, workout partners, etc. Tim doesn’t work out or train enough. Doesn’t push himself physically. He’s not in the shape he should be. He doesn’t work hard in the off-season. He eats poorly. He likes to drink. He’s never given up so many runs in one half of a season. The list goes on.
I could care less. I love Lincecum and have always wished the Orioles took a flier on him when they had a shot in the 2006 draft. The Orioles took Bill Rowell at ninth overall. Bill is the All-Star third baseman the Orioles are currently riding on their way to the AL pennant, in case anyone was wondering. Tim Lincecum went 10th to the Giants, and he’s, well, he’s Tim Lincecum. He’s the Freak.
Adam Cancryn and Joe Schackman are editors and co-founders of Began in '96.
Neill Thupari is the site's DMV correspondent, and finally an official resident of Baltimore. James Epstein is a contributor and resident salary cap guru.