Began in '96's Major League Baseball midseason roundtable

By Joe Schackman, James Epstein, Adam Cancryn and Neill Thupari

The Major League Baseball season is halfway done, and we're in a bit of a weird place. The Nationals and Pirates are winning. The Phillies are down and out. And it's actually an open question whether Albert Pujols will factor into the MVP race. 

To help make sense of everything that's happened so far and predict what we might see over the next few months, Began in '96 assembled its crack team of baseball writers to take us through the most pressing questions in the Majors. 

All opinions are solely those of the author, especially when they're dead wrong. As usual, pick your battles and wage them in the comments, or Twitter-fight us like a real man @BeganIn96.

The Yankees have the best record in the American League and the Nationals are the best in the National League. Are these the two best teams in baseball? Is this who we see in the World Series?

Joe: Neither the Yankees nor Nationals will reach the World Series. The Yanks have done a great job overcoming some injuries in their rotation, but I just don’t think they’re good enough to make the World Series. Their pitching staff has question marks, Derek Jeter has regressed and Alex Rodriguez is struggling mightily. That leaves a lot of offensive production for Robinson Cano, Mark Teixeira and Nick Swisher to make up for. I don’t see that happening.

The Nationals, meanwhile, have had a few good drafts and had a particularly notable off-season this past winter to set themselves up well for the future. They’re not quite there though, and are playing a bit over their heads.

James: The Yankees and Nationals are polar opposites, but have both had fantastic first halves. New York is a veteran club with a character that battled through injuries to maintain the pole position in the tight AL East. The Nationals are the new kids on the block, finally enjoying the fruits of their years spent hoarding prospects.

But are these the two best teams in baseball? No, I don’t think so. The Yankees have overcome a lot, but I believe the Texas Rangers are the better team. The Rangers are younger and deeper, and will be players in the bidding for Cole Hamels.

The Nationals have a better shot of coming out on top, but I think the Cincinnati Reds have put it all together and will emerge from the NL. Also on the periphery are the San Francisco Giants. With their pitching, you can’t count them out.

Adam: For all the publicity that the Yankees get, I was still surprised to see them at the top of the AL East standings come the All-Star break. They’ve faced a ton of injuries, had key players struggle at the plate, and are seemingly in their eighth straight year of finally being “too old” to keep up. But this is what the Yankees do: they quietly string together a few series victories, and then next thing you know they’re 15 games above .500. That’ll continue into the second half.

But all that being said, they are still the second-best team in the AL. The Rangers have no holes, and will eventually pull away from the rest of their division. With a lineup that is somehow better than last year, and a pitching staff good enough that they can afford to slowly work Roy Oswalt into the rotation, I don’t see anyone standing in their way.

The Nationals, though, will make their first World Series appearance. They have arguably the best rotation in the National League, and possibly the entire MLB. The lineup is solid and will only get better, as a variety of players return from early-season injuries and hit their stride. And with the rest of the NL East overachieving to this point, Washington will likely pull away enough by late August to the point where they can rest young players like Stephen Strasburg and Bryce Harper. This is a good team, age be damned, and there’s no one else in the NL close enough to challenge them.

Neill: The Yankees are the best team in baseball. The AL East is the best division in the league by far, and they somehow still have a seven game lead over Baltimore. They’ve been on an impossibly hot tear throughout the past few weeks, and there’s no end in sight. It’s nice to see a small market team like the Yankees take the time to build around its farm system and create a winner with a middle-of-the-pack payroll.

Secondly, the Nationals are the not the second-best team in the MLB. We’ll see how they rebound after Strasburg gets shut down. The World Series will be Yanks and… wow, the NL is pathetic.

Mike Trout and Bryce Harper have captivated fans across the country with their precocious play. Is there anyway they keep this up in the second half?

Joe: In short: No.

Both guys are extremely talented and will be stars for years to come, but they’re rookies playing under immense pressure and scrutiny. Their teams are competing for playoff spots and the intensity will increase as we hit the home stretch. They don’t have enough games under their belts to keep up these monster numbers.

Looking at Trout’s numbers in particular, there’s a strong possibility of regression. His home-run-to-fly-ball percentage is 17.6%, which puts him on par with Joey Votto, Miguel Cabrera and A-Rod. It’s hard to see Trout maintaining that power as pitchers start to give him different looks.

James: Both have been absolutely spectacular contributors to their respective teams. Do I think it’s possible for both of them to keep that up in the second half? Absolutely. Do I think they will? I do not, for one basic reason: Rookies hit walls.

Bryce Harper is still a teenager who has never played this much baseball in his life and has never played through a September stretch. While his power numbers might not drop off significantly, I do believe you will see a decline in his .282 batting average and .354 OBP.

Mike Trout, on the other hand, has a better shot at maintaining his success because of the guys around him. He’s on an experienced team, and has Albert Pujols to guide him through the rest of the season. Again, though. I am a strong believer in the rookie wall.

Adam: I’ll break with the pack here and say that both Harper and Trout maintain their pace. There are certainly a number of factors working against them, but these two have already proven that they’re more equipped to handle the Majors than any other rookies in recent history.

Harper has shown great patience at the plate, and seems to have intimate knowledge of his limits (however high they may be). That means that he doesn’t have the holes in his swing that pitchers exploit with other rookies once they’ve seen them for the fifth or sixth time. And no matter what happens, he’ll continue to be an above-average contributor in the field and on the base paths.

I feel pretty much the same way with Trout, except his ceiling is even higher. He’s got the basic skills that don’t disappear late in the season: patience, baserunning skills and a great glove. He’ll slump at the plate at some point soon, like everyone does. But expect him to snap out of it quickly and take Rookie of the Year honors in a landslide.

Neill: I hope Trout keeps it up. Last year, I got to see the O’s play the Angels in Baltimore, and had the pleasure of sitting near Trout’s family. They were standup people who rooted proudly for their son, and it was a warm sight to see. I think Trout has a great head on his shoulders, is a class act and is someone who just gets it. He understands the game, and I hope he continues to flourish.

Harper is a classless prima donna, and I hope Cole Hamels nails him in the head soon. I hope he falls into a clown coma, bro.

Which teams are bound for a second half surge?

Joe: I think the Boston Red Sox are poised for a big second half. They have question marks all over the field, but their run differential is leaning heavily in their favor at +43. Their offense is one of the best in the game, and they’ll get Jacoby Ellsbury and Carl Crawford back at some point soon. Provided they keep scoring, the Sox are bound to improve on their .500 record.

St. Louis is also sitting pretty, just 2.5 games out of first behind the Pirates and Reds. They have the second-best run differential in the game, which technically should have translated into 50 to 51 wins. They only won 46 in the first half. Hard not to believe that will balance out over the next few months..

James: I think the Detroit Tigers are bound for a second half surge. I wouldn’t be surprised if they end up having the best record in the second half. They just have too much talent to be playing this poorly in a weak AL Central. All due respect to the White Sox and Indians, but they don’t have the firepower to get it done.

Another team likely to pick it up is the Tampa Bay Rays. Three words when it comes to them: pitching, pitching and pitching. If the Rays can pick up a bat at the deadline to better improve their anemic offense, their starters can carry them the rest of the way to the Wild Card.

Adam: It’s the Detroit Tigers. They’ve not played as badly as everyone makes it sound, it’s just that they haven’t come close to living up to the sky-high hype. At two games above .500 and sitting just behind the perpetually wobbly Indians and White Sox, they’re bound to move in front in the second half. 

The key will be getting some help from starters not named Justin Verlander. Doug Fister, Rick Porcello and Max Scherzer should be much better than they’ve shown, but if they don’t produce soon, I’d expect to see the Tigers buying at the trade deadline.

Neill: I don’t think Cleveland and the White Sox can continue to do what they’ve done in the past month or so for the rest of the season, so I see things falling into place in Detroit. Chicago doesn’t have the arms to keep pace with the Tigers’ lineup.

Also, look for San Francisco to push the Dodgers in the weak NL West. It’s so bad, I think the NCAA Champ Arizona Wildcats just got invited into the division bring it some legitimacy.

Which teams are in for a decline?

Joe: Is it cheating to say the Orioles? They’re already seven games out of first and simply don’t score enough runs to be a serious contender. 

James: The Baltimore Orioles are due for a decline. Their season reminds me of their 2007 campaign, where they got off to a fast start only to stumble down the stretch. The Orioles’ schedule gets much tougher in the second half, where they’ll have to fight through the thick AL East jungle.

In the NL, I see the Pittsburgh Pirates declining. They’ve had an amazing first half thanks to several breakout players, but the Reds and the Cardinals have more quality pieces in place.

Adam: It’s unfortunate, but I think you’ll see the Pirates start to fade. For as much credit as their pitching staff has gotten, only two full-time starters have winning records (A.J. Burnett at 10-2 and James McDonald at 9-3). Wins are overrated, that much is true. But I think in this case it reveals how close Pittsburgh has been to a total meltdown. If Burnett or McDonald hit a cold streak or are just plain unlucky, there is no one to pick up the slack. And don’t even think about counting on the offense. One-third of their lineup has an on-base percentage below .300. Andrew McCutchen can only do so much when no one’s on base. 

Neill: The Nationals shall crumble. Mark my words. Oh, so will my Orioles. But it’ll hurt more for those fair-weather fans in D.C.

Which players aren’t being mentioned right now for MVP who nevertheless stand the best chance of winning?

Joe: I think Jose Bautista will backdoor an AL MVP race that should be wide open come September. His numbers are all in line with his last two seasons, except for his BABIP. It’s criminally low at .215, meaning he’s been horribly unlucky so far. Once his luck bounces back to the norm, people will start showing him some love.

James: The two players I see coming out of the AL as MVP possibilities are Adam Jones and Albert Pujols. Jones has put together a fantastic campaign thus far, hitting .289 with 20 homers and 44 RBIs. He’s a five-tool player who will have to be in the MVP discussion as long as the Orioles remain competitive.

And you can’t ever count out Pujols. Now that he’s coming around in the AL and less focused on meeting the expectations of his contract, I expect him to lead a surging Angels team to the Wild Card.

For the NL, it’s David Wright and Hunter Pence. Wright has to be considered a candidate for MVP if the Mets remain in the playoff race. His power numbers are not what they were, but no one is more important to his team’s chances. Similarly, Pence could garner some votes if the Phillies catch fire in the second half. He’s been one of the few brights spot so far on that team.

Adam: David Wright has been essential to the Mets’ success, but the key to New York’s stretch run will be R.A. Dickey. And if the Mets are on pace for a Wild Card spot late in the season, he should be in the MVP conversation.

Dickey has been the story of the season, and despite that, his success can’t be overstated. Not only is he a knuckleballer who wins consistently (which is rare enough), he’s doing so while throwing strikes, striking hitters out and avoiding walks at rates that are elite for traditional pitchers, much less those who rely on one fluttering pitch. The most striking stat to come out of the first half for me has been Dickey’s number of wild pitches. He has one. We are watching something unprecedented in the history of baseball, and that has to count for something.

Neill: Can I throw out Ronny Paulino (the Orioles’ backup catcher) for this one? No? How about Mark Reynolds’ fielding coach? I must admit, I haven’t paid much attention to the MVP races, because there’s just too much baseball left to be played. Albert Pujols, for example, could crush the ball in the second half and win MVP. It’s so open. As a matter of fact, I’m taking Pujols. I’m taking Pujols in the AL, and Dickey (wishful I know) in the NL. God, I love R.A. Dickey.

Can Josh Hamilton win the Triple Crown?

Joe: He can, but I don’t think he will. His stats are in the ballpark, and he has the help around him, but average will hold him back. He’s at .308 right now, and has a long way to go to catch the guys batting in the .330s.

James: If anyone can this year, it will be Josh Hamilton. The man just knows how to mash the ball. However, I do not think he will because of injuries down the line. He hasn’t shown the durability to last a full season, and could end up falling far behind Robinson Cano in the race for the AL batting title.

Adam: No. Winning the Triple Crown requires a season of full health, uncanny consistency and little competition from one-dimensional players (speedy singles hitters, home run hitting DHs, etc.). All three won’t line up for Hamilton this season.

Neill: Josh Hamilton already won the triple crown once. He was shooting up heroin while doing shots of tequila in a back room in a bar in Texas right before going home with three gorgeous Texas blondes. He can do it again. I believe in you, Josh.

Who will be the biggest name to move before the trade deadline, and where will he land?

Joe: I don’t think Cole Hamels is going anywhere. Ruben Amaro Jr. has a reputation as a dealer, but it’s a bit misrepresented. The deals he has made involving Lee, Pence and Oswalt were no-brainers at the time, and the Phillies still have a good chance at re-signing Hamels.

Instead, I think Matt Garza will be the biggest name to move. Theo Epstein is building from scratch and will have no interest in keeping such an expensive pitcher on his roster. Teams like the Yankees, Red Sox, Orioles, Blue Jays and Dodgers are all seeking arms, and the combination of a motivated seller and multiple buyers means we’ll get a deal.

James: I think Cole Hamels gets traded to the Texas Rangers. The Phillies are getting older, and their window is closing fast. The Rangers, meanwhile, are aggressive and will make a strong push for the left hander. They have the prospects to do the trade and the money to keep him.

Adam: Zack Greinke. While Hamels has attracted much of the attention so far, Greinke is just as good and on a team that’s also going nowhere. The difference is that the Phillies have pieces on the DL (Howard, Utley) to justify sticking it out for a little while longer. Milwaukee’s time has come and gone quicker than it would have liked, and retooling while Ryan Braun is still a star will take some major moves in the short term.

Neill: As much as I want to see Zach Greinke to the O’s, I think he’s staying put. I like James’ Hamels pick. I’ve heard the Justin Upton to Atlanta rumors, but I’m not sure he’ll end up there, so I’m going to go with Garza and Ryan Dempster to the Dodgers.

Why are the Phillies so bad? Can they turn it around? What about the Tigers?

James: The Phillies are so bad for a number of reasons. They’ve had a lot of injuries, they lack great leadership, can’t hit and are getting older. Losing Roy Halladay, Ryan Howard and Chase Utley has hurt far more than expected.

As for the Tigers, I believe the team simply hasn’t come together quite yet. Detroit doesn’t have the necessary chemistry, and their pitching has struggled at times. However, I do see them bouncing back as the schedule gets easier.

Adam: Let me count the ways when it comes to the Phillies. The supposed cakewalk of an NL East suddenly turned tough. Cliff Lee has one win, and the most devastating part is that he hasn’t pitched all that bad. The lineup is so thin that Freddy Galvis starts. Juan Pierre is one of Philadelphia’s best at getting on base. This is a team suddenly in need of rebuilding, and expect Hamels and Shane Victorino to be among the ones gone before things get better.

I addressed the Tigers a bit earlier, but the bottom line is that it comes down to pitching. The Detroit lineup can hold its own, and Justin Verlander will always be a force. The question is whether they can make the move at the deadline to add another reliable pitcher. Do that, and this is not a team you want to face in a five-game series.

Neill: The Phillies are literally falling apart. Injuries keep racking up, and even though Shane Victorino and Jimmy Rollins lead the league in smiles, it’s just not enough. All those bandwagon fans jumping ship is pretty fun to watch though. Imagine how sad all these girls are going to be come October when they can’t show off their brand-spanking new custom MLB jersey that reads “Mrs. Pence” on the back?

The Tigers can turn it around because they just need to gel and get into their comfort zone. Plus, the weak division helps their chances.

What is the biggest story in baseball no one is talking about?

James: The biggest story that no one is talking about (yet) is that Mariano Rivera will be back to pitch in 2012. He will be there this October. Count on it.

Another would be how the new CBA is affecting the way teams do business. Franchises can’t recoup draft picks anymore if they pick up type A and B free agent to be at the trade deadline. The 2014 luxury tax is also forcing teams to cut their payroll and win wth homegrown talent. GMs are going to have to be more clever with where they allocate their funds going forward.

Adam: I might be a bit biased, but I think the Marlins struggles have gotten very little coverage compared with the hype when they started the season. The implosion has simply happened quicker than anyone expected. Heath Bell has lost his job more times than Billy Martin in the '80s. Starting first baseman Gaby Sanchez got demoted. Josh Johnson is a different (worse) pitcher. And the lone bright spot just underwent surgery. This is a Marlins team that was supposed to cruise to an NL East title and contend for the World Series, and halfway through, they can’t get out of their own way.

Neill: R.A. Dickey is the biggest story no one is talking about. Yes, I’ve seen the Sportscenter Sunday conversations. Yep, read the ESPN/MLB.com/SI articles too. But I just want people to truly think about what Dickey has been able to accomplish, not just this year, but since joining the Mets in 2010.

I don’t care how amazing his knuckleball is. I don’t care about the scoreless inning streak (which was downright beautiful). The fact of the matter is, R.A. Dickey is a victim of sexual abuse; a vile, disgusting crime that is all too prevalent in our society today.

Victims of sexual abuse routinely succumb to personality disorders, suicidal ideations, and multiple academic, professional and interpersonal problems. These voiceless figures don’t have families, children, a support system or meaningful opportunities to overcome their horrid pasts. They suffer in the dark, in the shadows of society as victims whom people feel sorry for, but never dare to help or understand.

R.A. Dickey singlehandedly stood up for victims of sexual abuse everywhere and proved there’s hope. He proved there is a chance for them to succeed. He proved that yes, the road is arduous and sometimes overwhelming, but the path to any semblance of normalcy exists. Dickey’s story is one that can never be told too much or too often, and it is my sincerest belief that he will inspire scores of victims across the country to speak out and start their own personal healing process. Let us never forget R.A. Dickey.

The Pirates have surprised not just because they’ve got the third-best record in the league, but because they’re doing it while barely hitting. Does this continue through the second half?

Joe: It is really kind of amazing how well they’ve done despite an inability to score runs. While I don’t think the Pirates will fall off a cliff the way they did last year, I do think they will fall off pace a little because the lack of offense leaves them walking a fine line in a division with two juggernauts in the Reds and Cardinals.

What the Pirates do at the trade deadline will be fascinating. They have a deep farm system that they can leverage into a quality major league hitter. But after years of ignoring the riches that could be found in the draft, teams are probably overvaluing their prospects. So the Pirates could sell the farm to land a Justin Upton type player, or they can be a little more conservative and go after Carlos Quentin or Chase Headley. Winning now adds more to the bottom line than potential future wins, and the Pirates should make a move to secure their first .500 season in years.

Adam: Obviously, I think they’re due for a drastic fall at some point soon. The only way they can stay competitive is to add a player or two at the deadline, preferably a power hitter and third starter. That makes these next two weeks absolutely crucial. If the Pirates come out of the break and immediately falter, they could be in third place by the time the trade deadline rolls around. If that happens, it will be much harder to convince the penny-pinchers in the front office to shell out for a big acquisition.

Neill: Just realized that I put a lot into that last response. Feeling extra sleepy and winded now. Saw the Orioles play the Pirates. Think the Orioles took two of three. The Pirates’ lineup around McCutchen is so weak that they can’t sustain their success. Not in this day and age. Their bats won’t carry them through a tough stretch in the schedule, and especially not deep into October.

Which player has impressed you the most thus far?

Joe: I’m in love with Andrew McCutchen. There was no doubting his talent before, but he’s taken it to another level. McCutchen is hitting .362/.414/.625 while playing quality defense at a premium position and racking up a 4.5 WAR. Not to mention his 14 stolen bases at a success rate just under 80%. There’s nothing this guy can’t do.

James: No one comes close to R.A. Dickey. What a phenomenal story. A guy who is in his late 30s having his best career year right after telling the story of his awful sexual abuse as a child. Beyond that, he is the last remaining knuckler. It has been wonderful watching Dickey pitch, and I only hope he continues to succeed.

Adam: Dickey and McCutchen have been great to watch. But Giancarlo Stanton is who I have to go with. He’s 22 years old, with 19 home runs and 50 RBI on a bad team, and has been a bit overlooked because of Bryce Harper and Mike Trout. But he had arguably the best month of May out of anyone in the league (1.201 OPS), and was just as valuable to his team as Dickey or McCutchen. It’s a shame that he’ll have to miss extended time due to injury.

Neill: Paulino’s still got my vote. The way he warms up Orioles bullpen pitchers is Yogi Berra-esque. He’s the modern day Roy Campanella.

As much as it pains me, I have been genuinely impressed by Robinson Cano. He’s been unstoppable. Even so, I’m taking this time to thank Kansas City and the entire Royals fanbase for my second favorite moment in All-Star week history (next to Cal Ripken’s homer in ’01), when they treated Cano the way he deserved for leaving Billy Butler off his Home Run Derby squad. Kudos to you, KC. Let him hear it.


And who has been the most disappointing?

James: The most disappointing player for me has to be Albert Pujols. I understand that it takes time to adjust to a new league, but we’re talking about “The Machine.” He’s arguably the best hitter, not only of our generation, but of all time. Nevertheless, he’s been, dare I say, human in his endeavors thus far on the left coast.

Adam: For me, it’s Tim Lincecum. There’s been rampant speculation that he’s not completely healthy, which would be a shame if the Giants are insisting on throwing him out there every few days. Whether it’s due to injury or something else, though, there is something seriously wrong with Lincecum’s mechanics. His front foot is landing too soon to let his arm rotate far enough toward its release point, jarring the body and resulting in a lot more pitches left up in the zone. That should be a simple fix, but with Lincecum’s unorthodox delivery, it’s likely a more delicate procedure than usual.

Neill: Love this question because it doubles as my comeback story for the second half of the season. Tim Lincecum has been a shell of his former self, and it’s all been put out there for the world to see. I’ve heard it from beat reporters, clubhouse managers, workout partners, etc. Tim doesn’t work out or train enough. Doesn’t push himself physically. He’s not in the shape he should be. He doesn’t work hard in the off-season. He eats poorly. He likes to drink. He’s never given up so many runs in one half of a season. The list goes on.

I could care less. I love Lincecum and have always wished the Orioles took a flier on him when they had a shot in the 2006 draft. The Orioles took Bill Rowell at ninth overall. Bill is the All-Star third baseman the Orioles are currently riding on their way to the AL pennant, in case anyone was wondering. Tim Lincecum went 10th to the Giants, and he’s, well, he’s Tim Lincecum. He’s the Freak.

Adam Cancryn and Joe Schackman are editors and co-founders of Began in '96. Neill Thupari is the site's DMV correspondent, and finally an official resident of Baltimore. James Epstein is a contributor and resident salary cap guru.