www.amazinavenue.com

By Joe Schackman

Why is Michael Bourn still sitting at home? It has something to do with his agent.

Scott Boras is likely the first person that comes to mind when you think of a sports agent. And with good reason; he’s built his reputation on helping the some best baseball players in the world ink some of the biggest contracts in history. Of the four $200 million deals ever signed in Major League Baseball, Boras had a hand in three of them. He’s a super agent.

But even a super agent fails sometimes, and Michael Bourn is in the middle of finding that out.

Any conversation about Bourn’s lengthy free agency has to include Boras, because Boras is the main reason that the former Atlanta Braves outfielder is still sitting at home. It’s clear that Bourn still has the kind of talent coveted by big-league teams. He was ranked among the top three defenders by both Baseball Reference and Fangraphs at a premium position, and is a potent leadoff hitter at the plate. What he lacks in power (a career-high nine in 2012), he makes up for with a decent walk rate and excellent speed on the basepaths. As an overall offensive package, he’s a solid addition to any lineup. Couple that with his best-in-show defense, and you have a player consistently putting up 4+ WAR seasons. The stats all say the same thing: Michael Bourn is a very good baseball player.

So in a market that shelled out $125 million for Josh Hamilton and $75 million for B.J. Upton, why is the best player available still without a home?

Part of the answer is that teams are worried about investing in a player whose talents might not age so well. As Dave Cameron detailed a few weeks ago at Fangraphs, players who excel defensively from from ages 18 to 29 tend to drop off significantly after they hit 30. Andruw Jones, Carl Crawford and Aaron Rowand are each recent cautionary tales. With so much of Bourn’s value wrapped in outfield range that could quickly diminish, there could be some hesitation in giving him a lengthy and potentially bloated contract.

Then, of course, there’s the Boras factor. He’s notorious for extracting big-money contracts for players that at times haven’t panned out as expected, and as a result teams have learned to think twice before jumping into bed with him. With Bourn, he’s used his traditional method of dangling his client on the open market far longer than any other top player. The advantage is that there is no disputing that Bourn is the best one available. But in the meantime, the demand for him has shrunk. The Nationals, A’s, Braves, Red Sox and Angels all addressed their needs with other players through free agency or a trade while Boras was driving a hard bargain.

Bourn will play somewhere next year, though, even if it takes him longer than he’d like. The Mets would make the most sense given their current outfield personnel, which is the worst in the league. Lucas Duda is a horrible defender, center field is a platoon between Kirk Nieuwenhuis and newcomer Colin Cowgill, and Mike Baxter and Andrew Brown are battling it out in right field. Bourn would give them one legitimate everyday outfielder, and help them cover Citi Field’s cavernous confines. But there are some major obstacles. New York is still mired in its messy financial situation, and signing Type-A free agent Bourn would mean forfeiting their top draft pick. Though the Mets were the 10th-worst team in the league last year, they’re picking 11th because the Pirates couldn’t sign their first rounder from last year. That means the typical protections for top-10 picks don’t apply to New York, unless the MLB grants them an exception. Should Bud Selig rule in their favor, they could be a good bet to end up with Bourn. Without that, though, it seems unlikely.

If not the Mets, the Mariners and Rangers are the top contenders. Seattle has flirted with outfielders this entire offseason, from their Josh Hamilton pipe dream to a legitimate courtship of Nick Swisher that ended when he signed with Cleveland. Adding Bourn would instantly infuse them with much-needed talent. But like the Mets, it would mean giving up a relatively high first-round pick (No. 12). They’ve also been burned in the past by a poorly aging defensive wonder. After watching Chone Figgins and his four-year, $36 million deal flame out, they might not be too eager to pony up the cash again.

Texas also has a hole at center field after Hamilton’s departure, and has also missed on just about every free agent and trade prospect so far this offseason. Bourn would mitigate that issue, especially with Nelson Cruz facing a 50-game suspension. But in the Rangers’ hitter-friendly ballpark, his defensive value would also be somewhat limited. They might instead opt to give homegrown Leonys Martin a shot at the job, rather than commit to a long-term contract.

Outside of those three, it looks bleak for the last remaining big talent. Though Prince Fielder played a similar role of odd man out last year and got a nine-year, $214 million deal, that only came after Victor Martinez tore his ACL and the Tigers found themselves with an unexpected hole to fill. And don’t forget, Fielder signed his contract on Jan. 26. We’re now into early February.

If all else fails, Bourn could always take a one-year deal and reset his market next year. That would bring a lot of teams back into the mix, including the Yankees and Phillies. It’s always a risk though, especially after coming off a career year. As hard as it might be to believe, Bourn’s value might never be higher than it is now, and the super agent Boras might have overplayed his hand.

Joe Schackman is a co-founder of Began in '96

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Deadspin.com

By Adam Cancryn

The Angels, Mets and Red Sox. Three teams with the same goal, and wildly different strategies.

With apologies to Kenny Rogers, the secret to surviving the MLB offseason is knowing what to throw away and what to keep. Every trade and no-trade, signing and release, is sure to reverberate through the subsequent season, subtly tipping the scales of wins and losses. String a few good moves together, and you've set the franchise on a prosperous long-term path. Yet for every dynasty in the making, it seems there are an equal number haunted by the mistakes of winters past.

These stakes make for a kind of segregational dynamic when the weather turns and ballcaps are replaced by suits and ties. This isn't Opening Day, where hope springs eternal and everyone has a shot at glory. This is business: cold, calculating and jarringly realistic. You're either in it to win, to sell, or floundering somewhere in the middle.

Narrowed down, you're either the Angels, the Mets or the Red Sox.

While others have certainly made moves that could prove momentous down the road, these three franchises captured much of the attention this offseason. The Angels are the proud new owners of center fielder Josh Hamilton, which is the equivalent of buying a Lamborghini to wedge in between your Bentley and Maybach. Sure, it's probably too expensive and not the most practical investment. Hamilton's addiction struggles could sink him at any moment. But when everything is humming just right, it's a rare experience. After all, how many players have found themselves compared to Mickey Mantle? In Hamilton and Mike Trout, the Angels now have two. 

There was Twitter speculation that Trout could score 200 runs in front of a lineup including Hamilton, Albert Pujols and Mark Trumbo. That might sound absurd, but consider that he reached 129 runs in just 139 games during Pujols' worst year ever. Maybe 200 is a bit of a stretch, but 180 certainly seems reasonable.

Lost amid all that late-offseason excitement was the fact that Los Angeles also shored up its pitching corps. That unit held the team back in 2012, but Ryan Madson, Joe Blanton and Tommy Hanson should help on the margins and provide significant upside for an 89-win team that only needs a small boost to leapfrog its way to a division title. 

With the Angels holding all aces, the Mets can take some consolation in the fact that they are finally playing with a full hand again. General Manager Sandy Alderson warned that the rebuilding process would be lengthy, and on that point at least, the underachieving Mets have come through. But give them points for sticking to a plan, especially amid the typical New York uproar. They chose one fan favorite (David Wright) over another (R.A. Dickey), an accomplishment considering their still-stretched finances. And for all of the botched optics around Dickey's trade, they played the 38-year-old knuckleballer into an impressive haul. By adding Travis D'Arnaud and Noah Snydergaard, the Mets now have long-term solutions at catcher, shortstop (22-year-old Ruben Tejada) and for three-fifths of its pitching rotation. Add in Wright, and it's almost enough to dull the pain of being perhaps the first franchise to let a batting champ (Jose Reyes) and a Cy Young winner (Dickey) walk in two consecutive years. It could be ugly for a season or two, but Alderson and the Mets are hoarding their chips and settling in for the long haul.

Which brings us to the Red Sox, the third big-market player and perhaps the most baffling. The team's main haul so far is catcher/first baseman Mike Napoli and outfielders Jonny Gomes and Shane Victorino, which sounds like the core of a .500 team in 2009 and isn't much more promising in this day and age. Napoli is wholly unpredictable, following a standout 2011 with a .227/.343/.469 line in 2012. He also creates a glut behind the plate. The Sox already have backstops Jarrod Saltalamacchia and Ryan Lavarnway, and this offseason also added human placeholder David Ross. At first base, meanwhile, Napoli's total zone defense was a bruising five runs below average.

Similarly, it's hard to see where the impatient, low-power Gomes fits in beyond a stopgap role. He did hit .480 with runners in scoring position and two outs, but for that to pay dividends, there's a lot of work that needs to be done with the rest of the lineup. 

Victorino could be the worst signing of them all. For three years and $39 million, the Sox get an aging center fielder coming off his worst year for a price on par with with what more promising players like B.J. Upton or Angel Pagain are receiving. Not to mention that Boston already has a centerfielder in 29-year-old Jacoby Ellsbury. For those scoring at home, that's four catchers, two center fielders and approximately zero progress toward replacing the talent lost following this past year's epic collapse.

That's the difficulty with getting stuck in the middle, though. The Angels see an opportunity and are throwing everything at it in hopes of a grand payoff. The Mets are folding in 2013 and in search of a more promising future. And the Sox can either bide their time and bleed chips or jump the gun and do something crazy. Either way, you hope they have a plan.

That's how it appears now, at least. Fortunes can turn on a small decision, and the games are far from started. The Red Sox could stage a full reveal that puts all the seemingly mismatched pieces each perfectly in their place. The Mets could grow up quick, reeling off win after precocious win and wash away this year's sour taste. Los Angeles could trip and then topple under the pressure, becoming just the latest superteam to disappoint. The offseason is a crucial time, but ultimately just one hand in a long and unpredictable game. 

Adam Cancryn is an editor and co-founder of Began in '96.

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By Joe Schackman

Carlos Beltran's career as a Met has been overshadowed by one at-bat. For that, I am sorry.

Few moments in my life as a sports fan have been lower than the last out of the 2006 National League Championship Series. Specifically, Carlos Beltran’s strike three looking that sent the St. Louis Cardinals to the World Series and knocked the Mets out of the playoffs. The Cardinals went on to win the championship that year, won it again last year and are now leading yet another assault on baseball’s top prize. The Mets haven’t been back to the playoffs since.

For most Mets fans, the image of Beltran, bat glued to his shoulder, is the only thing they remember about him. He was blamed, ridiculed and then traded by the franchise that should have instead launched him to stardom. And for all that, plus everything else, I want to say something that most Mets fans aren’t ready to: Carlos, I’m sorry.

When Beltran joined the Mets, he brought with him absurdly high expectations. His contract was huge, one of just 10 $100+ million deals to that point. While since then, inflation has watered down the impact of that nine-figure mark, at the time it was a rare honor bestowed only on the league’s super elite. Fans rightfully expected a lot from their new center fielder. The problem is that they expected far more than Beltran, or perhaps any player, could ever provide.

Nevertheless, Beltran did his best to live up to the hype. Despite an okay, but not great, 2005, he still managed to cement himself as one of the best players in baseball over the first couple years of his contract. His combined WAR from ‘05 and ‘06 reached 23.7, thanks to a rare combination of power and speed that made him one of the top all-around outfielders in the MLB. He would finish fourth in MVP voting in 2006.

Of course, that legacy was washed away the moment he watched Adam Wainwright’s ninth-inning curveball fly by.

And while Beltran played extremely well again in ‘07 and ‘08, the Mets’ back-to-back collapses down the stretch overshadowed his accomplishments. Injuries hit then, and the rest of his time in a Mets’ jersey was seemingly spent biding his time until the team could hand him off. New York finally found a taker, trading him in 2011 for Zack Wheeler.

That change was just what Beltran needed. He played 44 games for the Giants, hitting seven homers and finishing with a .920 OPS. Then the Cardinals brought him over to fill an offensive void left by Albert Pujols. For much of this year, he looked a lot like the MVP-caliber outfielder the Mets thought they would have roaming Citi Field for years to come. And like all of the others before this year, his postseason has been fantastic. The Wainwright strikeout might be his playoff legacy, but there’s no denying that he’s one of the best post-season hitters ever.

Above all else, that’s what’s so painful for me as a Mets fan. It sucked that he struck out to end the NLCS. It sucked even more that he left the bat on his shoulder the whole time. And it sucked that he couldn’t stay healthy his last few years in New York. But worse than all that is the realization that we, as Mets fans, wasted our years with Beltran.

Here we were, with the best center fielder in the game, and we not only couldn't embrace him, but we couldn't even appreciate his talent. I can criticize Yankee fans for a lot of things, but loyalty to their players is not one of them. Play well for the Bombers, and you’ll likely never be forgotten. That’s not true when it comes to the Mets and their fans.

I’m just as guilty of this as anyone else. I didn't give Beltran the respect he warranted, and I’m not even exactly sure why I now feel the need to make up for lost time. Maybe it’s because I’m watching him play, and excel, in a different uniform while the Mets wallow at home for another October. Maybe it’s because I hope that if I apologize enough, he’ll start to forgive our fan base and the team that in many ways did him so wrong. Maybe at some point in the future he’ll come back to Queens, stride to the plate with that bat that looks as long as a hockey stick, and watch the entire stadium stand and cheer. And then maybe Mets fans will earn a shot at another superstar, and this time we’ll recognize that we have something special and treat him right.

Beltran’s career is far from over. He’ll be back next year, and the year after, and maybe for a few more after that. He’ll likely move to the AL so he can take some pressure off his aging knees. But a return to the Mets probably isn't in his plans. If he someday hobbles into Cooperstown, he’ll don a Royals cap. It’ll be a painful moment, watching a man who should have been a Met forever shun my team, and wondering how different things would have been if he had just taken that bat off his shoulder.

Joe Schackman is a co-founder of Began in '96

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By Joe Schackman

New York is where sports stars shine brightest. So why are so many in the dark when it comes to David Wright?

Countless ingredients went into making the magic potion that was Linsanity. From Jeremy Lin’s nationality, to his college major, to his couch surfing early days, you couldn’t draw up a more organically interesting story.

But even with all of that, Lin would not have gone from NBA sensation to global phenomenon without the New York City Factor.

In early February, the Knicks and the City were ripe for the taking. The Knicks were star-studded but floundering, a point guard away from contention. The New York fans and media were desperate for a feel-good story, someone to erase the cloud of brooding underachievement that blanketed Madison Square Garden. Lin answered both simple needs, and was briskly rewarded with fame that soon escalated beyond the Manhattan streets.

Broadway’s bright lights molded Lin’s legacy. He wasn’t the first and certainly won’t be the last. New York City loves its stars, embellishes their careers and makes them into legends. A player who excels in New York will never be ignored. 

Except for one.

***

David Wright is the player that every team wants. He’s a clean cut, team-first, homegrown star. He stays out of the tabloids and handles the media well. And most importantly, is really good at baseball. Here’s a question for you: According to Fangraph’s WAR, the all-encompassing baseball stat, who are the five best position players in baseball since 2004?

Most likely, you’re on a first-name basis with the top four: Albert, Chase, Alex and Miguel. They’re undeniable superstars, players on a fast track toward Cooperstown. At number five, it’s David Wright.

Now, WAR is a counting stat, meaning the more you play, the greater the potential number. And the parameters are a bit geared in Wright’s favor; he broke into the league in ‘04 (although he only played 69 games in his first season) and is having a monster 2012 season. 

But his stellar play holds up against the best players of this generation no matter how you splice it. Condense the parameters to 2007-2012 to bring in guys like Ryan Braun and Joey Votto, and Wright still holds strong at the fifth slot. Compare him head-to-head against New York icon Derek Jeter’s first nine seasons, and he beats out the captain by a WAR of 45.4 (and climbing) to 44.1. Simply put, Wright has ranked better statistically than all but four position players for nearly a decade. 

So if David Wright is among the best players in baseball and also plays in the world’s largest sports market, all the ingredients should be there. If Lin was a comet shooting through New York, Wright should be one of the city’s suns. 

And yet. He’s largely left out of the superstar conversation nationally, and in his own city is excluded from the Jeter/Manning/Lundqvist circle of sports elites. Why?

The answer is that Wright plays for the New York Mets. And the Mets suck. While David Wright was putting up MVP numbers, the organization’s string of embarrassments routinely overshadowed any individual praise he deserved.

Wright cemented himself as a premier player in 2006, his second full year in the bigs. He compiled a 5.2 WAR driven by 26 home runs and 40 doubles. He stole 20 bases and played decent defense. 

But 2006, for better or worse, was the Year of Beltran. The Mets centerfielder put up MVP-like numbers that propelled the team into the 2006 NLCS. There, the Mets’ season, and in many ways Beltran’s entire career, became obscured by New York’s crippling Game Seven loss. 

Then came 2007. Everything about Wright that season screamed Most Valuable Player. He upped his ‘06 numbers, mashing 30 home runs and 42 doubles while stealing 34 bags. He played the best defense of his career. The Mets, meanwhile, jumped out to a big lead in the NL East and looked ready for another trip to the NLCS. Until the collapse. After building a seven-game divisional lead on Sept. 12, New York lost 12 of its next 17 games and missed the playoffs. Wright’s monster season was erased.

The MVP award went instead to Jimmy Rollins, whose numbers were not as good as Wright’s, but whose team did not just complete one of the most stunning collapses in baseball history. Wright finished either tied with or better than Rollins in home runs, doubles, walks, average, on-base percentage and slugging percentage. Rollins stole more bases (41), but Wright had 35 and was caught less, giving them the same successful steal rate. Rollins played better defense at a more crucial position, but Wright’s third base was anything but poor. 

None of it mattered, though, though thanks to the collapse. It wasn’t even a contest. There was no way Wright was going to be handed the MVP award after his team failed down the stretch.

Wright maintained his high-level performance in ‘08, hitting a career-high 33 home runs and driving in 124. But the Mets stumbled again down the stretch and, instead of the postseason rhetoric revolving around Wright’s Hall-of-Fame level start, the team and its fans dwelled on the collapses. 

***

Everything about Wright seemed to fit as the unequivocal face of the Mets. Unlike Beltran, who arrived via free agency, Wright was their player. The Mets drafted him, groomed him and watched him grow into a star. But it never clicked the way it did across town with Derek Jeter. Burdened by the Mets’ struggles, he remained underrated and underappreciated in a town that knows not the meaning of either. 

And when things turned south in 2009, those around the team failed to realize they had something special. After three years of just above-average play (even then, he ranked 10th among third basemen in WAR), Owner Fred Wilpon called him a “very good player. Not a superstar.” The Mets, busy returning to their familiar mediocrity after a period of botched attempts at success, dangled him as high-priced bait.

But Wright chose just then to return to his true form. He rejuvenated his power stroke in ‘12, played lock-down defense and carried the Mets for the season’s first half. And for once, it feels like people are beginning to realize the true extent of Wright’s talent and importance to the franchise.

But it’s not yet genuine. It feels any-port-in-a-stormish on a team that doesn’t have Jose Reyes or Carlos Beltran anymore. A few months ago, fans were preparing themselves for his departure. Wright burst out the gate, and that talk evaporated. For now. 

Wright is up for free agency at the end of 2013. Fairly or not, one more under-the-radar season could spell the end of his time in the City, because for every athlete that New York launches into orbit, it sends hundreds, even thousands, crashing to Earth.

Joe Schackman is an editor and co-founder of Began in '96.

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By Adam Cancryn

By tossing a no-hitter, Johan Santana conquered 51 years of near misses. By doing it against the Cardinals, he helped the Mets take one big step in their healing process.

This weekend was supposed to be about the past. October 2006, to be exact.

The Mets' history is full of failure and disappointment and defeat snatched from the jaws of victory, but even in that context, October 2006 is particularly painful. That year, everything seemed to fall into place. Young stars David Wright and Jose Reyes broke out. Veterans like Carlos Delgado and Tom Glavine put up one last, great season. The Mets, with contributions from their headliners on down to their bit players, put together a wonderful season that brought them all the way to game seven of the NLCS.

Nearly everything had fallen New York's way that year, and on that October night, it again looked like luck was on their side. Propelled by Endy Chavez's game-saving catch for the ages just innings earlier, the Mets appeared destined for another come-from-behind win.  Down 3-1 in the bottom of the ninth, Jose Valentin singled to center. Then Chavez dropped a single into left. Two outs later, catcher Paul Lo Duca drew a walk. With the bases loaded, Carlos Beltran approached the plate.

***

If there is one player who defined the Mets in the first decade of the 21st century, it was Carlos Beltran. After several standout seasons with the Royals and a record-setting postseason with the Astros, Beltran became the Mets' number one target. They proceeded to pour every resource into acquiring the soon-to-be 28-year-old outfielder, and succeeded in outbidding everyone for his services.

This was not the franchise's first flashy signing by any means; Glavine, Delgado and Pedro Martinez came before him. But even amid those, Beltran represented the Mets' highest-profile acquisition during an era in which New York routinely showered veteran players with riches right as they hit the downslope of their career. Thanks to these signings, the Mets were winning the back-page battle and matching the Yankees' star power. But they were doing it in much the same manner that an amateur investor copies Warren Buffett's trades three months after the fact: too late and for far too much money.

That approach also did no favors for the new signees. The high expectations dogged Beltran for much of his first two years in New York, even as he remained one of the league's best. In '06, he made the All-Star game and finished fourth in NL MVP voting. But for $119 million over seven years, above-average was unacceptable. The fans wanted a hero. As Beltran strode to the plate that October night in the bottom of the ninth, he stood just one hit away from fulfilling their wishes.

***

Via STLToday.com

We all know how this story ended. Beltran, facing rookie closer Adam Wainwright, fell behind 0-2. Then Wainwright unleashed his next pitch, snapping his wrist and sending the ball into a parabolic tumble. It prompted no reaction from Beltran. His bat remained motionless, resting easy on his shoulder as the pitch curled down and to the left, crossing the plate's middle. All involved knew the outcome. Beltran sauntered off the field, while Wainwright and the Cardinals celebrated. Eight days later they would celebrate again, as World Series champions.

Since then, the Cardinals and Mets have taken divergent paths. St. Louis largely built on that year's success, improving incrementally until they reached the pinnacle again in 2011. New York, meanwhile, remained haunted by the called third strike. Twice they appeared headed for another playoff berth, and twice they collapsed in historic fashion. In the Mets' efforts to exorcise their demons, the axe fell on Omar Minaya, Willie Randolph and eventually, Carlos Beltran. The center fielder finished his Mets career with a library full of highlights, and yet the only play that mattered was the one he didn't make.

***

In the build-up to this weekend, all the bitter memories from '06 came rushing back. This would be a reunion of sorts for the Mets and their tormentors, and while the franchise had spent the past few years struggling to stay above water, Wainwright, Yadier Molina and Beltran excelled. Wainwright became a Cy Young candidate. Molina won four Gold Gloves and a fat new contract. Beltran is in the middle of a late-career resurgence. This weekend was about them, and what-ifs and remember whens.

And then Johan Santana took the mound. Throughout Citi Field, the ghosts of '06 swirled.

***

Through them cut Santana's array of offerings, twisting and biting from every angle. Like Beltran and the others before him, Santana's time with the Mets has been victimized by his past success. He was the best pitcher in baseball from 2003 to 2008. To become the hero that Mets fans wanted, he'd somehow have to top that. Santana gave it a valiant try, and through three seasons had a .615 winning percentage and a 2.85 ERA. But injuries often kept him off the field, and after a hurt shoulder forced him out for an entire year, he looked like just another example of too late and for far too much.

Santana is not the pitcher he once was, especially on this night. For much of the game, his fastball barely touched 90. He walked five, the most since June 2010. And just 15.8% of his outs were ground balls, about half his career average.

But Santana adjusted. He turned to his slider, and then leaned heavily on his still-world-class changeup. The result was far from dominant. But in the end, he did what Beltran and Glavine and Delgado and all the would-be Mets legends could not: He got the job done.

***

Over the past couple days, I've struggled with what this means, and whether it makes up for 2006. After all, it's just one game. It doesn't count any more in the standings, and there won't be a new banner in Citi Field. The Mets and Cardinals took the field again the next night, with the Mets still listed as the underdog.

But while little has changed on the surface, everything has changed psychologically. In two hours and 35 minutes, Santana erased 51 years of near misses, of so-closes and maybe-next-times. In that short period, everything went right when historically, it should have gone horribly wrong: Beltran's phantom double, Mike Baxter's stumbling catch at the wall, Daniel Murphy's take-charge moment in the eighth inning. For once, Mets fans could play what-if and then sleep soundly.

As for '06, nothing can atone for such a crushing moment. It happened, and the Mets will always carry that with them. But if they can't let it go, this no-hitter means that they can at least move on. The spell cast by Beltran, Molina and Wainwright is broken. The Mets have their milestone. In Santana, they have their hero. And thanks to him, the past no longer stands in the way of the future.

Adam Cancryn is an editor and co-founder of Began in '96.

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By Adam Cancryn

The Mets' owners settled their Madoff case, ensuring they'll be around to ruin the team for years to come.

In the end, everybody won. Except, of course, for Mets fans.

After months of debate between the Wilpon family and trustee Irving Picard over whether the Mets' owners were willing participants or just horrendously naive in buying into Bernard Madoff's Ponzi scheme, the two sides reached an agreement: Horrendously naive it was.

In a settlement announced March 19, Fred Wilpon and brother-in-law Saul Katz consented to paying $162 million of "fictitious profits," slightly more than half the maximum amount they stood to lose had the case gone to trial. Even better for them, there's little chance the two will ever have to shell out even a fraction of that total. In exchange for forfeiting their claim as victims of the Ponzi scheme (Wilpon and Katz contended that Madoff cheated them out of $178 million), Picard agreed to first try to recover that $162 million from others that he is suing in connection with the fraud. Only if he cannot claw that amount back over the next three years will the Mets' owners have to pay a cent of the penalty. And if they do have to pay some part of it? They can do it in installments.

The settlement has the strange effect of putting Wilpon and Katz and Picard on the same team. Both parties now have a vested interest in recovering the $162 million, if for vastly different reasons. The Mets' owners simply want to escape any punishment for their bumbling ineptitude, while Picard just wants to get the real victims their money, no matter where it comes from.

And so everyone emerged from the Manhattan courthouse that morning with a smile, while Mets fans the world over shook their heads in disbelief. These two stooges, who treated a baseball team like a personal investment vehicle, who gave the keys to that vehicle to the nation's largest fraudster, who sunk the team into incredible debt and then gutted it to save themselves — these same two stooges simply waltzed away from the only situation that could have forced them to end their abusive marriage to the Mets.

Image via Mets Journal

Now, as the Wilpon family's troubles end, the Mets' problems are ramping up. The settlement means that Wilpon and Katz will not have to sell the franchise to cover their fines, allowing them to return to running a team that they drove into the ground a couple of years ago and have left, smoldering, by the side of the road since then. Even if the team's owners no longer face dire financial straits, the Mets themselves will for years to come.

The franchise lost $120 million over the past two years despite playing in the nation's biggest and best market. That deficit forced the Mets to cut their payroll by about $52 million this offseason, the greatest year-over-year drop in MLB history. To tide over their day-to-day operations in 2011, the team took out multiple loans, including a $40 million advance from Bank of America and a $25 million one from Major League Baseball.

To pay back those loans, the Mets turned around and begged other people for money, this time in the form of minority investments. They did find enough investors to purchase 12 stakes worth $240 million total, even if at least half of those were purchased by Wilpon, Katz or the Wilpon-owned company SNY. In financial terms, the cash-strapped team borrowed money from both a bailed-out bank and a sympathetic regulator, then turned around and paid off those loans using funds partially provided by that same team's cash-strapped owner. In simpler terms, the Mets are their own self-contained financial crisis.

Just like any fiscal meltdown, these issues will cripple the franchise long into the future. Even after much of the $240 million was whisked off to various creditors, the Mets still needed to cover part of the $430 million in debt it took out with JP Morgan. Only after that can it begin thinking about funding its current-year obligations, of which Capital New York's Howard Megdal chronicled on March 20:

The owners will have to make a pair of payments on Citi Field — those payments totaled $43.7 million last year. They'll have $20 million in interest on the $450 million debt against SNY due in 2015, plus $30 million in interest on the $430 million debt against the Mets. If we assume that's been knocked down by a quarter, or even a third — those three obligations still total right around $75 million.

All those payouts, he adds, would only bring the Mets up to speed for this year. Massive operating losses for a third consecutive year would plunge the team right back into unsustainable debt. Given the lower ticket prices and dismal attendance predictions, it's a good bet we could be right back here at this same time next year, especially if the Mets fail to sell off their only two remaining stars, David Wright and Johan Santana.

That crushing financial burden is the Wilpon family's legacy when it comes to the Mets. Or at least, it would be, if they had been forced to sell the team. A sale would not have wiped the slate clean, but at least the new owner would have had ample personal funds to inject into the team. He or she could stabilize its finances, and still have the cash to put toward the building of a competitive baseball team, the concept of which seems to have been lost in this entire mess.

But Wilpon and Katz escaped from that Manhattan courthouse with just enough money and an abundance of arrogance to continue this sad charade.

"I can't wait to get back to our businesses, which I love, and the first order of business, the first priority, is getting down to Florida tomorrow, getting to that spring training camp and bringing the Mets back to the prominence our fans deserve," Wilpon said following the settlement, according to The New York Times.

That's a popular refrain, Wilpon saying that he loves the New York Mets. But there's a major difference between loving a team and loving having ownership of a team. If an owner whose mistakes have left the team financially broken, culturally depressed and devoid of talent can't bring himself to step down for the good of the franchise, then it's not hard to see on which side he falls.

Adam Cancryn is an editor and co-founder of Began in '96, and likely has a better credit score than Fred Wilpon.

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By Adam Cancryn

Looking ahead to the 2012 Major League Baseball season, one sentence at a time.

I know. Baseball season is still a month away. But that's the thing: It's only a month away! Maybe it's the unseasonably warm weather or just the general sports drudgery of our current the post-Super Bowl, pre-March Madness purgatory, but baseball season can't come soon enough. And so to celebrate those first whiffs of fresh cut grass and early thwaps of bat against ball, here's an easy, one-sentence preview of what to look forward to (or dread) about each team this year.

Arizona Diamondbacks- There are worse excuses for getting out of the oppressive desert heat than watching a middling ball club with a bunch of former high school All-Americans, but there are better ones too.
Player to watch: First baseman Paul Goldschmidt

Atlanta Braves- Enough talent to compete deep into the season before falling short, a storyline known in Atlanta as the last 20 years of Braves baseball.
Player to watch: Right fielder Jason Heyward

Baltimore Orioles- Possibly the best six-inning team playing what is unfortunately a nine-inning game.
Player to watch: Catcher Matt Wieters

Boston Red Sox- No beer and no chicken make Red Sox win 90 (Having Adrian Gonzalez helps too).
Manager to watch: Bobby Valentine

Chicago White Sox- There's no way Adam Dunn hits .159 for an entire season again... right?
Player to watch: Designated hitter Adam Dunn (out of morbid curiousity)

Chicago Cubs- Ryan Dempster, Matt Garza and Travis Wood are not the trio to lead the Cubs to their first championship since 1908.
Player to watch: Shortstop Starlin Castro

Cincinnati Reds- Everyone's sleeper pick for the fourth straight year, in a tradition that's just starting to get a little sad.
Player to watch: First baseman Joey Votto

Cleveland Indians- Cleveland is Major League Baseball's team of misfit players.
Player to watch: Second baseman Jason Kipnis

Colorado Rockies- The Rockies' hitters will need to take advantage of that thin air to support their untested rotation.
Player to watch: Pitcher Jeremy Guthrie

Detroit Tigers- The Tigers will start three sweet-swinging, brick-gloved designated hitters this year, with the hapless twist being that two of them have to play the field.
Player to watch: Right fielder Brennan Boesch

Miami Marlins- Few teams have more talent, and none have a better chance of imploding by the All-Star break.
Player to watch: Right fielder Mike (aka Giancarlo) Stanton

Houston Astros- By September, the only team the Astros could be neck-and-neck with is the 1962 Mets.
Player to watch: Second baseman Jose Altuve

Kansas City Royals- A team that is perpetually one year away from competing, its young talents (Hosmer, Moustakas) can't make up for all of the holes.
Player to watch: Third baseman Mike Moustakas

Los Angeles Angels- Have a bull's eye on their backs after a busy offseason, but Albert Pujols, Kendry Morales and a scary pitching staff should have the Angels cruising into the playoffs.
Player to watch: First baseman Albert Pujols

Los Angeles Dodgers- Broke and suddenly overshadowed by the upstart Angels, good pitching and the addition of a healthy Andre Ethier means that the Dodgers could have a sneaky-good season.
Player to watch: Pitcher Clayton Kershaw

Milwaukee Brewers- The team is about 350 lbs. and eight wins lighter without Prince Fielder, but could still win out in a weak division.
Player to watch: Pitcher Yovani Gallardo

Minnesota Twins- Mauer's legs and Liriano's arm are the few things worth watching on this snoozer of a team.
Player to watch: Pitcher Francisco Liriano

New York Mets- Between the Giants, Knicks and Rangers, it's been a good run, New York.
Player to watch: Right fielder Lucas Duda

New York Yankees- Loaded as usual, but will need Ivan Nova, Phil Hughes and Michael Pineda to deliver to keep pace with the Red Sox.
Player to watch: Pitcher Michael Pineda

Oakland Athletics- After losing its top two pitchers and adding a slew of middle-tier outfielders, we can only hope this is one of Billy Beane's genius plots.
Player to watch: Pitcher Brandon McCarthy

Philadelphia Phillies- This could be their last chance at a run before Miami and Washington take over the NL East, but Ryan Howard's lengthy recovery is already the season's first setback.
Player to watch: Pitcher Vance Worley

Pittsburgh Pirates- All you need to know about the promise-turned-inevitable disappointment that is the Pittsburgh Pirates: Big offseason acquisition A.J. Burnett is already sidelined after fouling a ball off of his face.
Player to watch: Third baseman Pedro Alvarez

San Diego Padres- The Padres are a collection of answers to obscure trivia questions.
Player to watch: Closer Huston Street

San Francisco Giants- Always in the mix with Tim Lincecum headlining the rotation, but the main story is whether they'll let Buster Posey continue catching.
Player to watch: First baseman Brandon Belt

Seattle Mariners- Unfortunately for Seattle, Felix Hernandez can only pitch once every five days.
Player to watch: Second baseman Dustin Ackley

St. Louis Cardinals- The Cardinals have neither abundant speed nor overwhelming power, but somehow have a knack for coming out on top more often than not.
Player to watch: Pitcher Adam Wainwright

Tampa Bay Rays- The little kid on the block for the past few years, the Rays have finally hit their growth spurt, but that also means they can't sneak up on anyone anymore.
Player to watch: Pitcher Matt Moore

Texas Rangers- Downright terrifying on paper, but it won't be a cakewalk to the division crown this year.
Player to watch: Pitcher Yu Darvish

Toronto Blue Jays- Jose Bautista is no flash in the pan, but not as much can be said for the hitters surrounding him.
Player to watch: Third baseman Brett Lawrie

Washington Nationals- A potential powerhouse, but inexperience at all the key positions means the season could derail quickly.
Player to watch: Pitcher Gio Gonzalez

Image via The Sacramento Bee

Adam Cancryn is an editor and co-founder of Began in '96.

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By Joe Schackman

Bud Selig has sat by silently as Fred Wilpon has run the Mets into the ground. If only they weren't friends. 

In Haruki Marukami’s short story The Rise and Fall of Sharpie Cakes, the narrator of the story finds himself in a cake baking contest. He’s supposed to be making “sharpie cakes,” but there’s a big problem: he doesn’t really know what a sharpie cake is, and no one seems willing to explain what one is. All he knows is that at the end, the cake will be judged by “sharpie cronies,” a pack of birds that only eat these sharpie cakes. If they devour the cake, it’s a sharpie; if they spit it back up, then it’s just a normal cake.

He spends a week baking a variety of cakes he hopes will qualify as sharpies. But when he presents his unorthodox entries for judging, a fight breaks out amongst the cronies. Half of them love the cake, while the other half vehemently disagree. The controversy throws the entire place into chaos, leaving the narrator with nothing to do but walk out, a bit befuddled over how a bunch of birds managed to screwed him out of his money.

Believe it or not, this story parallels life as a Mets fan over the past few years. While our narrator spent hours baking cakes in hopes his dedication would be rewarded, I spent hours on the couch or at the park watching baseball, in hopes my dedication would be rewarded. Yet like the protagonist, the reward is not a glorious victory. No, the reward is having to watch a bunch of stupid cronies tear each other apart at the expense of a professional baseball team. The only difference? I can’t walk out. But how I wish I could.

There is no breaking news in the miserable and pathetic story that is the New York Mets. The sad details have been on full display for years now, ever since it was revealed just how intimately intertwined the Mets’ owners and convicted Ponzi schemer Bernie Madoff had become. It should have been simple: the Wilpon family hitched their wagon to the wrong horse from the start, and would now pay the price. However, thanks to Bud Selig-- the ultimate baseball crony-- the Mets’ fans are now forced to come along for the ride.

Since the exposure of Madoff as a fraud and the Wilpons’ investment gains as ill-gotten, the Wilpons have done everything in their power to keep the Mets. That they would do so was expected, even if it was financially questionable. They’ve owned the team for decades and consider it a part of their family legacy. 

But choosing devotion over fiscal responsibility has severely damaged the quality of the team that they put out on the field. First and foremost, the Wilpon’s cut expenses across the board. This offseason, the Mets set an MLB record by slashing its payroll by $50 million year over year. Then they cut an entire minor league baseball team. Even after taking those measures, the Wilpons must still sell a number of minority stakes in the organization to remain financially viable.

Yet despite their mounting debt and inability to draw fans or meet short term obligations, Major League Baseball has allowed the Wilpons to try just about every possible ploy to keep their team. Commissioner Selig loaned them money, and then when that wasn’t enough, he helped them secure a $40 million loan from Bank of America. Since then, he’s given the Wilpons tons of leeway in their desperate search for investors following a botched deal with hedge fund manager David Einhorn.

The one financial bright spot in this entire mess has been SportsNet New York (SNY), the Mets’ television network that was launched through a partnership between Sterling Equities (parent company of the Mets), Time Warner and Comcast. As it stands right now, the Mets own about 70% of the network.

However, a new deal may now have SNY purchasing shares of the Mets, about 16% of the team to be exact. The actual cash is coming from their partners, Time Warner and Comcast, but would be funneled through SNY and result in SNY owning 16% of a company that owns 70% of them.

As Forbes is reporting, this arrangement allows the Mets to use SNY as collateral in the deal. Should the team default, the Mets would potentially have to turn over their share of the network to Time Warner and Comcast, leaving any future buyers of the team without access to the very profitable network.

There is nothing illegal about this. But like everything else surrounding the Wilpons right now, the arrangement reeks of back-door deals and handshakes. The Wilpons are literally stripping the Mets for spare parts in front of our eyes. 

By allowing all this to go on, Selig has done the Mets, and the league, a disservice. Standing idly by while one of baseball’s biggest-market teams crumbles under its own debt and mistakes does nothing to advance the good of the game.

Perhaps the worst part is that, as a fan, there is nothing to be done. Selig has refused to put the Wilpons out of their misery, leaving fans to watch helplessly as the cronyism of Major League Baseball tears this team apart. Maybe our narrator could walk away and laugh about the absurdity, but not me. There’s nothing left to do but keep baking those cakes.

Joe Schackman is a co-founder and editor of Began in '96

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A billion dollar lawsuit. A pile of debt. A third straight losing season. Now a sorely needed deal to stabilize the team's finances is dead. For the New York Mets, the hits keep on coming.

Fred Wilpon, owner of the New York Mets, has had an interesting few months to say the least.

He’s been deeply involved with his close friend Bernie Madoff’s Ponzi scheme. He’s had a $1 billion lawsuit levied against him. He’s publicly bashed his own players. And now he has run one of the summer’s few positives out of town. I’m pretty sure at this point Webster’s dictionary can go ahead and swap “naïve” with “Fred Wilpon.”

It seemed almost impossible that New York Mets could ever lose money. They play in the premier sports market in the world and have a brand new ballpark and one of the most exciting players in baseball. Yet, the Wilpons have found a way.

It really wasn’t even that hard when you think about it. Blow a few million here on Luis Castillo, a couple more on Oliver Perez and spend $60+ million on Jason Bay. Mix in a lack of playoff games four years running and you’ve got the perfect recipe for financial disaster.

So with some hefty debt and an even heftier lawsuit hanging over their heads, the Mets began looking for someone to buy a minority share in the team.

It was a peculiar deal from the start; why someone would want to even get involved with the Mets? Why give money to a floundering team without getting any real say in the operations? Why hand over hundreds of millions of dollars to a family that has consistently failed at running a baseball team? The deal’s only perk was that, if the Wilpons were unable to retain control of the team, the new minority owner would be first in line to buy the Mets. This seemed obvious to David Einhorn but, apparently not so much to Fred Wilpon.

David Einhorn is almost the antithesis of the Wilpons: a shrewd businessman who made his fortune shorting the financial crisis. He fit perfectly with the style of the Mets’ new front office, which puts advanced statistics, savvy decision making and of course, logic, over everything else. When he emerged as the leading candidate to buy into the Mets, fans were giddy. The on-field product was struggling, but at least they were amassing a power group at the top.

That is, of course, until the morning of September 1, when the Mets announced they would no longer make a deal with Einhorn.

It will likely never be exactly clear as to why the deal fell through, but it appears that one of the key issues was that Einhorn tried to clear a path for him to purchase the team outright.

Early in the negotiations, Forbes reported that Einhorn would buy a stake in the team for $200 million. If the Wilpons failed to pay that back within three years, Einhorn would be allowed to purchase a controlling share of the team for an additional dollar. Boiled down, the deal was essentially a large loan: Einhorn gave the Mets $200 million and the Wilpons put up the team as collateral.

It seems that Einhorn tried to go a step further, attempting to get pre-approval from Major League Baseball’s other owners to purchase the Mets in the event the Wilpons were forced to sell. This did not sit well with Fred. He worked hard to block that vote, and eventually the conflict led to the deal’s failure.

I’m sure it was an uncomfortable thought for Fred Wilpon that he could lose his team. But did he really think someone would hand over that kind of money just to sit in owners' box with him?

This, I’m sure, is a drastic oversimplification of a complicated process. But it shows yet again just how out of touch Wilpon is with the world. How he failed to understand that someone would not just give him the money to piss away on more useless free agents.

While Wilpon may have rid himself of the pest that is Einhorn, the Mets still need cash. They are on pace to lose 80+ games for the third year in a row and will miss the playoffs yet again. They also are poised to hand over a $130+ million contract to Jose Reyes, but even that will not put them much closer to winning the division anytime soon. Their problems are going nowhere.

But of course, Fred Wilpon has an idea. He plans to sell parts of the team to family and friends. Which I’m sure can’t backfire…

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By Joe Schackman

With the deadline acquisition of highly touted Zack Wheeler, the New York Mets now boast their best young pitching trio in more than a decade. 

Generation-K 2.0 is upon us. Yeah, that’s right, I said it.

Forget the ghosts of Pulsipher, Wilson and Isringhausen. It's impossible not to look at Jenrry Mejia, Matt Harvey and Zack Wheeler and think about what could be for the New York Mets, because when you root for a struggling sports team, what do you have other than hope?

It really is amazing just how much can change in just a few short months. Thanks to a billion dollar lawsuit against the Wilpons because of their business dealings with Ponzi schemer Bernie Madoff, the Mets were on the brink of financial ruin and had hit rock bottom. They were the laughing stock of baseball. A fraud of a baseball team now represented financial fraud on the grandest scale. It seemed painfully fitting.

But those nightmares have been erased, for now. With the trade deadline fast approaching, The Mets had what was by far the best bat available in centerfielder Carlos Beltran. Beltran had been linked to almost every team in playoff contention, but for most of the summer no team was willing to give up a top prospect. 

The San Francisco Giants, though, knew they needed a strong bat in the middle of the lineup. And with time running out, they took a chance and offered up their best pitching prospect. The Mets didn’t blink and ended up with Zack Wheeler, a centerpiece for their depleted farm system.

Wheeler, as a 21-year-old, is one of the top 40 prospects in baseball. He was drafted straight out of high school at number six overall in 2009. He has a big fastball and a solid curve that can make him a dominant strikeout pitcher.

Then there is Matt Harvey, the Mets’ first round draft pick last year.  Harvey is a year older than Wheeler because he decided to forgo the draft out of high school to attend UNC. However, in just a few short months he has shot up the prospect rankings and is now ranked a few slots ahead of Wheeler at number 30. He’s a flame-throwing righty whose fastball can hit 98 mph. God, can you imagine that pitch ripping through the heavy Queens air?

And of course there is Jennry Mejia, the 21-year-old from the Dominican Republic who only started playing baseball six years ago. Mets fans are familiar with this one, because for the last year-and-a-half, he has been the only prospect worth noting. Mejia has already debuted in the majors, but underwent Tommy John surgery this year and will spend the next year-and-a-half recovering.

It is impossible not to think that this has the makings of one of the best rotations in baseball. It is impossible not to imagine these three guys rolling through the NL East.

It is also impossible not to worry that any of these pitchers could flame out before reaching the big leagues.

In the cruel world of minor league development, these three prospects could mean absolutely nothing. Wheeler could fail to find the strike zone. Harvey could turn out to be nothing but a flashy fastball thrower and Mejia could never fully recover from the surgery.

But while Carlos Beltran never won a championship in Queens, he left the Mets fans with a parting gift. Hope. 


Image via NJ.com

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By Adam Cancryn

Jose Reyes was the best thing to happen to the New York Mets in more than a decade. But if the team wants to win that elusive championship, they must first part ways with their mercurial shortstop.


It will not be an easy breakup, nor a popular one.


More than any other individual in the past decade, Jose Reyes has become synonymous with the New York Mets. He is the youthful face, churning legs and whip-quick arm of the team’s most exciting and optimistic period since the late 1980s. The homegrown jewel developed through a farm system where, far too often, the growing stops somewhere around AA Binghamton.


Despite Reyes’ contributions, though, nearly every October of the past eight years has come and gone without him. Outside of a 2006 season in which the improbable trio of Suppan, Molina and Wainwright knocked the NL-best Mets out in the NLCS, just the opportunity to play for baseball’s top prize has never been within reach.


This is not a problem that can be pinned fully on Reyes. Baseball championships, perhaps more than any other sport, are won through the timely contributions of the stars on down to the last man on the bench, and the Mets have never been quite in sync.
But it is a problem that Reyes can perpetuate by remaining in New York.

***************


When Sandy Alderson arrived as the Mets’ new general manager, it was with the expectation he would redefine the organization’s overarching philosophy. Gone, supposedly, were the free-spending Mets, the ones whose splashy acquisitions won many back pages but little else. Replacing them were the shrewd, do-more-with-less Mets, willing to make the hard cuts and long-term decisions that keep a team on the track toward a championship.


This is not a novel approach. The previous two GMs set out on the same path. But in the process of developing the Octavio Dotel’s and Aaron Heilman’s into steady Major Leaguers, each gave in. Whether to the daily competition with the cross-town Yankees, the pressure to seal their legacy or the deceptive notion that just one impact player might put this team over the top, they all abandoned their level-headed ideology for the allure of a big-time move.


With Reyes, Alderson has already reached this moment. He can hold onto Reyes past the trade deadline, clinging to his centerpiece and hoping maybe, just maybe, everything will fall in line: a playoff push boosted by the dominant return of ace Johan Santana followed by a Wild Card spot and a deep run in the postseason all led by the ever-improving shortstop whose love affair with the City ends up maybe, just maybe, meaning more than the $140 million plus offered by far more established teams.


Or he can stay the course, a methodical, if tedious, route that has already purged closer Francisco Rodriguez and his $17.5 million vesting option in favor of 26-year-old Bobby Parnell. The route that led to eating the contracts of Luis Castillo and Oliver Perez for the good of the team. The route that has put the Mets in position to overachieve with a lineup featuring six players under 30 and a patchwork rotation, but more importantly, given those players under 30 and patchwork rotation a chance to prove their mettle.


Alderson can recognize that the chance to win with the Reyes-Wright-Beltran core is fading, and that to keep Reyes would mean sinking hundreds of millions into one position on a team with many larger holes to fill. He can recognize that this is the decision that determines whether the Mets are a fringe playoff team for the next few years before fizzling out, or whether they are ready to lay the young foundation for the next era.

***************


There is no guarantee that the three or four prospects acquired in a Reyes trade would bring a championship, or even that they would factor into a playoff appearance. The package might yield a few everyday players who toil for a half-decade and move on like so many forgotten Mets. Serviceable, but unremarkable.


They might tank, failing to ever come close to matching the value Reyes provided the Mets over even just a few seasons.


They might blossom to form a powerful core, one that the Mets can build around for the next decade, much the same as they tried to do with Reyes and Wright and Beltran. This time, it might even be successful.


Right now, however, there are just two alternatives. Hold tight to Reyes, and hope the old guard can recapture the magic. A World Series appearance would be nice, but given the state of the team, most fans would settle for some meaningful September games and the pleasure of watching their shortstop hit second and, with a lopsided gait equal parts violent and effortless, dig for third.


Or let him go, stocking the team with new blood and proving it’s possible to push past the daily struggles and keep focused on the ultimate prize in the distance, even in a city as distracting as New York.


It is no easy choice. But that’s the thing about breakups. They’re hard, and often the best solution is to keep a stiff upper lip and move forward with the confidence that, as good as it was, the best is yet to come.

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