The .300 Hitter: The manufactured Luck/RGIII question

By Adam Cancryn

Stanford quarterback Andrew Luck is the consensus No. 1 draft pick, and Robert Griffin III's ascension shouldn't change that.

Now that Andrew Luck and Robert Griffin III are both turning pro, let the games begin.

The second-guessing games.

Luck has been the consensus No. 1 NFL draft pick for two years now. Over that period, he's resurrected the Stanford football program, twice finished second in Heisman voting, inspired a "Suck for Luck" campaign and drawn comparisons to Peyton Manning and Drew Brees.

In November 2010, CBSSports' Rob Rang called Luck the "best quarterback and elite prospect" he's ever scouted, and the overwhelming opinion is that the 6'4" Washington, D.C. native is as sure a thing as you can find coming out of college.

But inevitably, doubts will arise at some point between the end of the NFL season and the draft. Scouts, TV analysts and team front offices will entertain those pesky insecurities that go along with any big investment. Is Luck really that good? Have we hyped him up too much? Is his arm strength/accuracy/mobility what we thought it is?

And what about Robert Griffin III?

Let's do everyone a favor and nip this all in the bud right now. Andrew Luck is the best player in the draft, period. Every snap he's taken over the past two years has been scrutinized and dissected by thousands of experts, and those experts have consistently come to the same conclusion. Luck was the best in 2010, he was the best in 2011 and the few months leading up to the draft aren't going to change that in 2012.

Griffin isn't going to change that either. He's an intriguing athletic specimen, a track star with a strong arm and a knack for making big plays. He's also led a resurrection, turning Baylor from patsy to powerhouse. Considering the success the similarly skilled Cam Newton had in his rookie year with the Panthers, it's tempting to project that same fate onto Griffin.

Yet as exciting and flashy as Griffin might be, he is also erratic and raw; the classic high risk/high reward prospect. Luck, meanwhile, is polished and experienced and unquestionably talented, and therefore also very boring.

The No. 1 pick is made for those boring sure things, though. It's one of the largest, rarest investments a team will make, and for that reason it has to pay off. So when the Indianapolis Colts are put on the clock this April, they must drown out the doubts, go with their gut and make Andrew Luck their next franchise quarterback.


The Week Ahead (all times EST)- Your guide to what to watch-- and what to watch for-- this coming week


College Basketball
Baylor at Kansas- Jan. 16 at 9:30 (ESPN)
Michigan St. at Michigan- Jan. 17 at 7 (ESPN)
Georgetown at Rutgers- Jan. 21 at noon
Virginia Tech at UVa.- Jan. 22 at 6 (ESPNU)
NBA
Lakers at Heat- Jan. 19 at 8 (TNT)
Timberwolves at Clippers- Jan. 20 at 10:30 (ESPN)
NHL
Bruins at Devils- Jan. 19 at 7 (NESN/MSG+)
Penguins at Rangers- Jan. 19 at 7 (FOX PITT/MSG)
Rangers at Bruins- Jan. 21 at 1 (MSG/NESN/NHLNET)
NFL Playoffs
Ravens at Patriots- Jan. 22 at 3 p.m. (CBS)
Giants at 49ers- Jan. 22 at 6:30 p.m. (FOX)
Santana's comeback
Keep an eye on New York Mets' ace John Santana's recovery. The pitcher missed all of the 2011 season, and is eyeing an Opening Day return after throwing on flat ground last week.
Going Pro
Expect more college players to declare for the NFL draft. Baylor's Robert Griffin III, Oregon's LaMichael James and Alabama's Trent Richardson made it official last week, among others.


In the Kitchen- Tracking the major hot stove stories 

• Highly coveted Cuban defector Yoenis Cespedes has at least six teams chasing after him. The 26-year-old free agent outfielder has drawn interest from the Chicago Cubs, Chicago White Sox, Baltimore Orioles, Cleveland Indians, Detroit Tigers and Miami Marlins. Miami, which has been active throughout the offseason, has said it will be "aggressive right to the point of stupidity" when it comes to Cespedes. 
• It's looking like the rich might get even richer down in Texas, where the Rangers have had preliminary meetings with Prince Fielder. The former Brewers slugger has also been connected to the Seattle Mariners and Washington Nationals, but it's believed they're not willing to shell out the kind of money that Fielder wants. Though the Rangers are currently negotiating with Japanese import Yu Darvish, should that deal fall through-- or if they have the resources to go after both-- Fielder would top their wish list.
• The New York Yankees are stockpiling arms again, trading for Mariners hotshot Michael Pineda and signing Hiroki Kuroda. Outside of CC Sabathia, the Yanks haven't had great luck acquiring pitchers-- see Burnett, A.J.-- but Pineda and Kuroda represent different kinds of bets. Pineda is just 22, and under team control for the next five years, giving them plenty of time to get value before having to pay him big money. They had to give up star prospect Jesus Montero to get him, but given the Yankees' offensive firepower and their bandbox of a stadium, great pitchers are more valuable than great hitters. Kuroda, meanwhile, is 36 but was signed for just one year. It's a low risk/high reward deal that won't put New York in a financial hole. 
• Dmitri Young hasn't played in the MLB since 2008, but he's testing the waters for a comeback. The slimmed-down Young is shopping himself as a cheap gamble that could be a solid bat off the bench or even at first base. 
• The Boston Red Sox have invited longtime catcher and captain Jason Varitek to training camp, but the loyalty ends there. He'd be a non-roster player, giving him just a slim chance of actually making the team, as Boston already has two catchers. Though Varitek's offensive output has diminished, the Sox were 42-22 last year when he started, as opposed to 48-50 when Jared Saltalamacchia was behind the dish. Varitek will likely either take this invite or retire.

Web Gems- The week's best, worst or strangest Internet sports finds

From the SI vault, President Richard Nixon compares hands with then Louisiana Tech quarterback Terry Bradshow in 1970.

Did this man really cut Michael Jordan?- Thomas Lake's magnificent investigation into the story that Michael Jordan was cut in high school, and the divergent paths Jordan and his coach took in the following years.

Coming Up- What's next at Began in '96

• Later today: The Began in '96 staff makes their sports predictions for 2012
• Tuesday: Greg Mathews breaks down Prince Fielder's ongoing free agent saga.
• Wednesday: The story of the upstart UVa. men's basketball team, and the 67-year-old undergrad following them every step of the way, by Adam Cancryn.
• Thursday: Joe Schackman warns that history tells us not to expect too much from Andrew Luck too soon.
• Friday: Adam Cancryn wonders how ESPN will fill the news hole left by Tim Tebow's playoff exit.