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2012 Predictions: Forecasting the year in sports

January 16, 2012

By Adam Cancryn, Joe Schackman and Neill Thupari

The year 2012 is a big one in the sports universe. There's the Olympics and the Euro Cup, not to mention two dream teams, multiple new storylines and a bunch of athletes waiting to make their mark on the world. The Began in '96 staff took time to gaze into their crystal ball and answer 10 questions about what this year will hold.

1. Let's start off easy: Name the 2012 winners of the upcoming Super Bowl, the NBA and NHL championships and the World Series.

Joe: The NFC is just kicking the shit out of each other. The Giants downed the Packers and the Niners beat the Saints. Who knows what is coming out of that championship game? So I’m going with the Ravens. They are a dangerous pick because they have the ability to lay an egg out of nowhere. But their defense is menacing. Ray Rice is one of the most complete backs in the league and should absolutely gash New England's defense. If Joe Flacco can get hot (lukewarm for most QBs) then they can battle with the best of them.

NBA- Oklahoma City Thunder, baby. Youth is the X-factor in this year’s condensed season. Kevin Durant is maybe the best pure scorer in the league right now, and Russell Westbrook is that perfect complementary piece you need to survive in the current superstar format of the league. The only question is whether Westbrook is mature enough to accept that role.

World Series- It's so easy to pick the Angels, but goddamn are they good. So yeah, those guys.

Neill: I’m so angry Joe took the Ravens. THE REVERSE JINX COMETH! I would love to pick my hometown Purple and Black, but I can’t do it. I’m mentally preparing myself for the evil empire from the Northeast to rain all over our parade in Foxboro. That being said, while my heart will be rooting hard for the Ravens, I’m going to go with the NEW YORK FOOTBALL GIANTS to win it all.

Why? Why the hell not? Just like Baltimore, they can come into a game and look like a team that is completely and utterly lost. They can be dysfunctional, unpredictable, and a heart attack in waiting for their fan base. Still, when they come into a game focused and playing up to their potential, I don’t think anyone’s better. Much the way Green Bay got hot last year, I see all the pieces coming together for a healthy Giants team. In the Super Bowl, they’ll beat the Pats, just like they did in 2008.

I’m not going to pretend like I know what is actually going to happen in the NBA this year, because I doubt anyone could reasonably predict anything with any sort of particularity. We have a 66-game schedule where older teams will struggle (see Lakers, Spurs, Celtics and Mavs) and younger teams will flourish (Thunder, Bulls, Knicks, Clippers and, believe it or not, the Indiana Pacers). That being said, most, if not all of the teams I’ve mentioned above will make the playoffs, and regardless of whatever crazy things happen this regular season, I think order will be restored come playoff time.

While I will enjoy rooting against them each playoff game, I’ll take the Miami Heat over the OKC Thunder in a fiercely contested NBA Finals, Russell Westbrook will cost the Thunder a championship because he can’t handle playing second fiddle.

While normally my NHL predictions consist of picking which team the Caps will have another playoff collapse against, I think I've got a pretty good chance at predicting who will hoist Lord Stanley’s Cup this spring. Ladies and gentlemen, say hello to the next dynasty in the NHL: The Boston Bruins. Move over, 90’s Redwings and Avalanche, there’s a new dynasty in town.

People are taking the Angels in the MLB, right? Well, if there’s anything that the Eagles and Heat superteams have taught me, it takes more than a year to put it all together. Then again, baseball is such an individualistic sport that it can be broken down into the Moneyball-esque sabermetrics so that things like team chemistry and clubhouse personnel become practically obsolete. Let’s just keep this jinx thing going and take the Red Sox.

Adam: In the NFL, I like the San Francisco 49ers to win the Super Bowl. They would have never been my pick even a few weeks ago, much less at the beginning of the season, but the playoffs so far have shown us that good defense still beats good offense. Of the teams remaining, the Niners have the best defense by far. The offense is no slouch either, thanks to a relentless running game and the Alex Smith we've been waiting to see for six years.

I see the Chicago Bulls pulling it off in the NBA Finals this year. Like Joe said, youth is key in a condensed season, but you need experience to go along with that youth. The Bulls have all the pieces in place, led by Derrick Rose, one of the best guards in the league. With all the attention paid to the Heat, Clippers and Lakers, Chicago hs had the luxury of flying under the radar a bit. They'll cruise to a high playoff seed, then turn it on and beat the Thunder in six.

Though I won't go as far as calling them a dynasty, the Boston Bruins sure do have the look of a repeat champion. Tim Thomas is as consistent as you'll get in goal, and the offense has incredible depth. That doesn't mean it'll be easy, though. Two teams to watch are the New York Rangers and Detroit Red Wings. Both weren't supposed to be anywhere near as good as they are, but the Rangers have a top notch defense and Detroit has a its next franchise goaltender in Jimmy Howard.

Lastly, the World Series. The Yankees are officially scary again now that they've added Michael Pineda and Hiroki Kuroda to the rotation. They've slowly remolded themselves to resemble the championship teams of the late '90s, and have the firepower to beat the Angels as long as they stay healthy.

2. Which team in each of those four leagues will be the biggest surprise, and which will be the biggest disappointment in their upcoming seasons?

Joe: I have no idea who will surprise, which is the beauty of the NFL. But as far as disappointments, I think the Jets continue down their path of doom. Right now, they're like that surreal scene after a car crash, where everything is scattered on the ground and people are standing around in disbelief waiting for someone else to call 911. The Jets have a serious lack of leadership right now, and Rex Ryan will have to take a HUGE step forward as a head coach and leader to save next season.
Unless they get Peyton Manning. Then wow, will they be good.

I think this year’s surprise NBA team will end up being the Warriors. They beat the Heat in overtime last week, and Steph Curry's  shot is just so so pretty. Disappointment? The Knicks. I hate James Dolan.

In the MLB, the Nationals are going to be filthy. It'is kind of cheating to pick them because the team is stacked, but no one is talking about them thanks to the Marlins and Angels making the big moves and the Phillies’ and Braves’ firm grip on the division.

The Marlins will disappoint everyone. Mark Buehrle can’t be a workhorse forever, Jose Reyes’ legs are made of glass and Hanley Ramierez' pouting will be a giant fun sponge.

Neill: I think the Eagles will be back next year. It’s contingent on a man named Vick staying healthy, but for some reason, I’m inclined to give the Eagles a pass on their season this year. When you create a “dream team," as Vince Young so eloquently put it, you’re going to have some growing pains. They had those at first, and then in the last month they went 4-0, outscoring opponents 125-46.

I can only hope the disappointment will involve the Patriots, Cowboys or Steelers or Rex Ryan’s wife’s feet. But I think our biggest disappointment next year, unfortunately, will be a serious, life-altering injury in an NFL game. There are just too many hits these days where players are violently launching themselves at one another. It’s not healthy, it’s almost always unnecessary, and it’s downright dangerous. I used to get pumped and jacked up as much as the next guy when a big hit was laid out, but now I find myself cringing at the sight of these receivers and defenders cracking skulls. I have never wanted to be more wrong about a prediction in my life, but I just have a sick feeling in my stomach about this one.

Adam: In the NFL, the wheels will finally fall off for the Pittsburgh Steelers. They've held on admirably over the past few seasons despite injuries and an aging defense, but the division is getting tougher while Pittsburgh spins its wheels. 

The Dolphins showed serious improvement over the back half of this past season, and that should continue as the rebuilding effort gains momentum. Matt Moore, Reggie Bush and Brandon Marshall are a solid core. 

I think the Boston Red Sox will take a big step back this year as well. I'm not convinced last year's collapse won't stretch into this season, and personnel-wise they haven't kept up with the Yankees. Just by virtue of the fact that a big chunk of their schedule comes against New York and the Tampa Bay Rays, the Sox could have major struggles. 

On the other end of the spectrum, the Cincinnati Reds might finally put it all together. They've been the trendy pick for a few years now, and for good reason. If the Reds get their rotation in sync, they could threaten deep into the postseason. 

If the Heat don't win an NBA championship, they're the league's biggest disappointment once again, hands down. And it's hard to call this a surprise given how much attention they've gotten, but the Los Angeles Clippers can go deep into the playoffs. From what we've seen so far this year, they've already meshed and are firing on all cylinders.

On the ice, the Pittsburgh Penguins have had trouble keeping up with the rest of their talented division. Even with Sydney Crosby still working his way back to full strength, the Pens should have enough talent compete for a Stanley Cup. Instead, they've had to battle it out with the rest of the pack.

This has been a season of surprises so far, from the Rangers and Red Wings to the St. Louis Blues. Even the Winnipeg Jets are not nearly as terrible as was predicted. 

3. Within those four sports, what will be 2012's single biggest storyline?

Neill: I believe that the first well known, active athlete in one of the four major sports will announce that he’s gay. Amid all the homosexual, pedophiliac sex scandals that have come to light this year, I truly believe that an athlete will reveal his homosexuality and then proceed to speak out about gays in sports. He'll become an advocate in sports, so to speak, educating many on the struggles and realities of homosexual existence in professional sports. The most interesting part of this will be to see how teammates, opponents, fans and the always mindful media will react to an active athlete coming out.

Adam: Peyton or Pujols, take your pick. How the Indianapolis Colts handle Peyton Manning will grab headlines throughout the NFL offseason because of the league-wide implications. If he stays, the Colts will have to delicately balance the Manning-Andrew Luck relationship (or maybe they won't even take Luck in the draft?) and if he leaves he makes his new team an instant contender.

Pujols, meanwhile, will be the most scrutinized athlete since LeBron. His mega contract comes with expectations the Angels will win a championship immediately.

4. What about the biggest storyline outside the traditional big four?

Joe: Tiger Woods getting back into the winner's circle. This is the year he returns to form. He will never be early 2000s Tiger, but he is going to start winning again. A lot.

Neill: This summer, all of Europe will be captivated for three weeks by UEFA European Cup. Spain comes in as the returning champion, after having dominated the international football scene for the past  six years and become just the second team in history to simultaneously hold the World Cup title and the European Cup. The scary thing? Spain might be even better than they were four years ago. They could start nine out of 11 players from FC Barcelona and Real Madrid, with Spain’s attack led by Xavi Hernandez, Andres Iniesta and Cesc Fabregas in the midfield. Other contenders include a young German squad and a French team that’s full of talent but still reeling from its internal meltdown two years ago in South Africa.

Adam: The Federer/Nadal/Djokovic battle for supremacy will rule tennis once again. Each have something to prove this year, and they'll have to do it during a golden era for the sport. And there's always the potential that Jo Wilfried Tsonga crashes the party. 

5. Scandals dominated the sports landscape in 2011. Where will we see the controversy come from this year?

Joe: I think in 2012 we see the first serious threat to the credibility of the NCAA. The Atlantic fired a warning shot in 2011 with their fantastic piece on the corruption in the organization. The NCAA in response allowed a $2,000 stipend to be added to the scholarship, basically admitting the current deal is inadequate. With O’Bannon v. the NCAA (now In re: NCAA Student Athlete Name & Likeness Licensing Litigation) coming down the pipeline in 2013, the NCAA is in a precarious position. One day a championship team will refuse to take the field/floor and the NCAA will crumble. 2012 could be the year. 

Neill: In 2011, fans were clued in to the darker realities of booster payments, illegal benefits, NCAA violations, child pornography, child sex abuse and, worst of all, the multiple cover-ups that took place at institutions of higher learning. These shadowy acts were hidden for years to preserve the millions of dollars poured into college athletics. Meanwhile, the players remain unpaid, forced to kill themselves for sports where less than 5% of athletes turn professional. But rest assured people, as long as schools' programs keep winning, all shall be forgiven.

In 2012, in addition to the horrifying, gory and troubling details continuing to emerge from the Sandusky and Bernie Fine prosecutions, the sports world will have to endure more of these controversies across college (and possibly high school and youth) athletics as more victims come forward to call out their abuser. I truly do not believe that Americans realize how prevalent of a problem sexual abuse is in youth sports. 

Adam: It seems like it's been a while since someone took aim at AAU athletics, and it's not like those teams have cleaned up their act one bit. I wouldn't be surprised to see an investigation into pay-for-play arrangements or high schools that are essentially diploma mills.

6. There's always a subject or story that get completely overblown. What will we never want to hear about again after 2012?

Joe: Tim Tebow. He is getting overblown right now and it will only continue through the summer and next season. I am so tired of hearing about Tim Tebo. Sportscenter is on right now and Herm Edwards Live is breaking down Tebow. The next three topics? America is Tebowing, then Tebow Bio, followed by Urban on Tebow. Not to mention the fact that they are running fan tweets about Tebow on the bottom of the screen.

Neill: There are a lot of obvious things jumping out at me right now: Timothy Richard Tebow, Gerry Sandusky, the Miami Heat, Kobe Bryant’s wrist, Tim Tebow, Pacquiao-Mayweather, hey, did I mention Jesus H. Tebow? But I think I have a good one. In August, London is scheduled to host the Olympics which means MICHAEL PHELPS! MICHAEL PHELPS MICHAEL PHELPS MICHAEL PHELPS. Not sure if anyone knows this, but Mr. Phelps is a swimmer. He likes to swim, rip bong hits, drive drunk and then somehow become the symbol of all that is heroically American. I’m already sick of seeing his name in print. And the thought of Bob Costas saying his name 6,980 times an hour? I’m done. I will never want to hear about Michael Phelps after 2012. May he breaststroke his way off into the sunset, never to return.

Adam: Peyton Manning and his neck. It already screams "Ed Werder reporting live from Manning's front lawn," and the coverage should ramp up as soon as the NFL season is over. We'll get minute-by-minute updates on what exercises he's doing and BREAKING NEWS ALERTS every time he turns his head a half-inch farther to the right and left.

7. Any story you think will be undercovered this year?

Neill: I already spoke a bit about soccer, but there is a renaissance of sorts taking place in European club soccer. Just last year we were treated to an incredible stretch of soccer where FC Barcelona played its fiercest, most hated rival Real Madrid four times in three weeks, with three different trophies on the line. To give you an idea of what Real Madrid/Barcelona is like, imagine the Red Sox and Yankees on 10 years of steroids. Even UNC/Duke is like 1986 Barry Bonds, and Barca/Real is 2006 Bonds. The hatred. The disgust. The gamesmanship. I’m literally salivating right now. Just give soccer a chance, people. Watch Barcelona play Real Madrid at the Camp Nou on April 22, 2012 at 12:00 p.m. EST. I promise you won’t regret it.

Adam: Drowned out by the attention given to Michael Phelps will be the rest of the talented US Olympic swim team. Missy Franklin is the new name to know, but the entire men' and women's squads have the chance to take home multiple golds. And gear up for the team relays, which are the most intense five minutes in sport.

8. There are rule changes ever year, some subtle and some—like all the NFL's recent changes—not so subtle. What rule change would you like to see in 2012?

Joe: It is time the MLB embraces video review. How many important calls can umpires get wrong before baseball stops living in the past? Umpires are absurdly good at their job, but they are still human. When you have the option to get these calls right, you need to embrace it.

Neill: Joe’s answer regarding MLB video review is right on target. My rule change? I want CBS to stop putting the crappiest play-by-play commentators on air each NFL Sunday. I want Gus Johnson to call each and every single NCAA Tournament game, even if that means the games will be tape delayed and he’ll do them afterwards. That’s the rule I want.

Adam: I agree wholeheartedly with Joe, but I'd settle with fixing the replay system we do have. The NFL challenge system is unnecessary; the officials should just review all controversial plays. Teams shouldn't be penalized for wanting to get the referees to do their jobs right. 

9. A sports media question: Yahoo! Sports arguably won the 2011, breaking a string of huge stories. What media outlet will rule the coming year?

Neill: I’m going with a big underdog. I’m betting that none other than ESPN makes a huge comeback! Believe in the underdogs, people!

Joe: Is it cheating to say Yahoo! again? I am a conspiracy theorist, and I just don’t see the CBS’ and Fox’s of the worlds taking down major sports organizations and figures while they televise the games and make so much money off the product. For example, no way ESPN goes after USC like Yahoo! did when it stands to gain so much from a potential USC title run.

The good news is the door is now open to sites like Yahoo! and Outkick the Coverage to go after these big stories that the giant outlets don’t want to break. I’m also excited to see Deadspin’s new look under Tommy Craggs.

Adam: I'm also going to cheat a little bit and say Twitter will rule 2012. Already we're seeing more athletes find out they've been traded on the social media platform before anyone tells them in person, and Twitter's accessibility and speed means everyone is a reporter and anyone can break news. While professional outlets are the ones that do the in-depth reporting and confirming, more of those stories will be started by rumors that originated on Twitter.

10. Finally, let's get three predictions about anything within the sports universe. The first one should have a good chance of happening, the second one should be plausible and the third should be downright outlandish.

Joe: 1) The New York Mets will be the worst team in baseball. 

2) Peyton Manning restructures his contract so Colts can draft Andrew Luck, who doesn’t play anything outside of garbage time in 2012 season.

3) Mr. Irrelevant, the final pick in the 2012 NFL draft, wins Rookie of the Year.

Neill: 1) Tiger Woods wins two Majors in 2012.

2) Tiger Woods wins four Majors in 2012.

3) Tiger Woods strolls into the PGA Championship this year at The Ocean Course on Kiawah Island, S.C., having won the first three majors. He shows up Thursday morning with 12 gorgeous supermodels from all over the world, one wearing the 2012 Green jacket as she chain smokes, and the others fighting over carrying the Claret jug and the U.S. Open trophy. Tiger roars to a wire-to-wire win, reducing Phil Mickelson and Rory McIlroy to tears in the process. After accepting the Wannamaker trophy, Tiger thanks no one but himself, blasts Stevie Williams and pours out champagne for his father. A guy can dream.

Adam: 1) An SEC team will play for the NCAA football championship for the seventh straight year.

2) Yu Darvish will secure a $100+ million contract, and then be a major, Hideki Irabu-level disappointment.

3) The Heat get knocked out of the playoffs again, prompting LeBron James to say "screw it" and go out for the NFL. He's signed by the Redskins.



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Began in '96 features perspectives on sports and their place in the wider world. Each piece aims to move beyond easy cynicism or blind reverence and instead deliver thoughtful and incisive viewpoints that drive the conversation forward.
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