So far this offseason, we've seen the Miami Marlins dish out $193 million combined for Jose Reyes, Mark Buehrle and Heath Bell, a figure that swells to $202 million if Bell’s option kicks in. The Angels handed C.J. Wilson and Albert Pujols contracts that will cost a minimum of $310 million. That number could, and most likely will, increase as Pujols hits certain milestones. That's more than $500 million from just two teams, a rarity for those not named the Yankees or Red Sox.
The Yankees and Red Sox, meanwhile, as well as the Phillies, are locked up at first base for the foreseeable future. So the other 27 teams in the league had their shot at not one, but two, excellent first basemen this year. Once Pujols inked his deal, it seemed likely that Fielder would soon do the same. But one month later, Fielder still hasn’t signed.
The general feeling is that teams are unwilling to invest long term in a guy like Fielder. Which is odd, given his talent level and the increasing number of mega contracts within Major League Baseball.
Since 2006, Fielder’s first full season, he is third in the majors with 228 home runs, behind only Pujols (244) and Ryan Howard (262). He’s sixth in RBIs with 646, compared with Howard’s 796 RBIs and Pujols' 708. While Howard has a commanding lead in that category, the 62 that separate Fielder and Pujols is a difference of just over 10 RBIs per year.
When it comes to more advanced stats, Prince ranks 10th in the Majors with a .932 OPS since 2006. It should also be noted that Fielder significantly cut down on his strikeouts last season, dropping to 106 K's in 2011 from 138 in both '09 and '10. Last year also produced career highs in on base percentage at .415 and line drive percentage (19.8%).
The bottom line is that he is walking more, striking out less and making better contact, all of which suggests that Fielder is getting even better at the plate. This is a top-tier bat that many teams should be dying to have in their lineup, yet for some reason no one wants to pony up the cash.
Is it his weight that’s the concern? Will that lead to his body breaking down? Fielder hasn’t given anyone a reason to think that he’ll miss any time. Since ‘06, he’s played in 959 games, the most in the majors. He’s missed just one game in the past three seasons. One.
Again, why hasn’t a team jumped on this young, power-hitting first baseman? Pujols has a 10-year deal at the age of 32, and in the same market, teams are balking at an eight- or nine-year contract that would bring Prince to his mid-30s.
Now, if teams are trying to shy away from giving out long-term deals, that’s one thing, but there's no evidence that that's the case. Pitchers are still getting five-year deals, and with the strain that's placed on pitchers' arms, the injury risks are significantly higher than a position player.
So where will Prince Fielder finally end up? Signs point to the Washington Nationals, although they are downplaying their interest. They've already spent an incredible amount of money on Jayson Werth, and they’ll have Bryce Harper knocking on the door to the majors soon. Adding Fielder to their lineup would create quite the splash in the National League East. They wouldn’t be at the Phillies’ level yet, but would certainly push for a Wild Card spot, and maybe contend for the division title within a few years.
The Seattle Mariners have been mentioned a few times, but they aren’t one player away from contention. It’d be odd to see them splurge on one player when they’re concerned about their ability to retain Felix Hernandez at the end of his deal.
The Texas Rangers, meanwhile, may feel pressured to keep up with the Anaheim Angels’ recent signings. With all of the money that they got through their TV deal, it’s not that outrageous for them to spend over $100 million each on Yu Darvish and Fielder-- provided they can come to an agreement with Darvish. If they can’t and Fielder is still available, we may see the Rangers use that money all on Prince.
From the teams' perspective, it may make more sense for an American League team to sign him because he can transition to DH, with a reasonable contract in the neighborhood of about six years at $24 million per year. That's not an unorthodox amount, given what we saw with Jayson Werth in 2011 and Pujols earlier this year. There's go to be one owner out there still willing to spend that kind of money, and his best option is to spend it on Fielder.
Greg Mathews is a guest contributor for Began in '96. He's also written for The LoHud Yankees Blog's Pinch Hitter series.
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