http://bleedingyankeeblue.blogspot.com/2011/08/why-phil-hughes-is-on-mission.html

By Joe Schackman

Robinson Cano will be a free agent in 2014. So how big is that contract going to be?
Robinson Cano is in new territory. There have been 42 $100+ million contracts in MLB history, and excluding relief pitchers, they’ve covered every position on the diamond. Except second base. Seventeen to infielders, 12 to outfielders and 10 to starting pitchers. A distinguished list that doesn’t include any second basemen.

The closest so far was Ian Kinsler and his $75 million deal. But that will all change with Robinson Cano. Whether the Yankee star breaks the nine-digit mark isn’t a question. He almost certainly will, and could even become the fifth player to reach $200 million. But a negotiation for that much money is never simple, and even as the highest-paid second baseman ever, there could still remain a large gap between what Cano is worth and what he ends up earning.

Cano is, at the most basic level, an elite ballplayer. He’s a good fielder and more than capable hitter, slugging more 25 home runs in four of his six full major league seasons and peaking last year with a career-high 33. The rare power hitter with a great ability to make consistent contact, Cano finished in the American League’s top 10 in hits nearly every year since 2007 and ranked sixth in on-base percentege in ‘10 and ‘12. He’s got one of those smooth, sweeping left-handed swings tailor-made for Yankee Stadium’s short porch, but away from home is just as effective at targeting the outfield gaps. And on defense, Cano’s athleticism often makes up for any deficiencies. Though some advanced stats are not kind (a career -30.6 UZR from Fangraphs, mostly coming from his first 132 games as a major leaguer), he possesses the necessary range and arm for the right side of the infield. But what stands out the most is his sheer gracefulness; Cano seems to glide to every ball, the kind of casual speed normally reserved for outfielders.

All of that adds up to a player who, statistically, was one of the league’s best over the last few years. Cano’s 29.5 fWAR since 2007 is the ninth-best in the MLB and third among second baseman. Over the last three seasons, only Miguel Cabrera and Joey Votto compare with him on an fWAR basis, putting Cano in line for a major payday.

But then the question is, how big can that payday get? To get an idea, we should first start with what his past play tells us about Cano’s future value. Fangraphs projects a 5.3 WAR season in 2013 for the second baseman. Using Tom Tango’s philosophy on aging and play quality, we can assume that Cano will lose about 0.5 WAR per year in his 30s. The last element to consider is the market rate for a win, which is currently about $5.5 million. Putting those together, that means a 5.3 WAR season for Cano would be worth nearly $28 million to the Yankees, far more than the $15 million they’ve already agreed to pay him for this upcoming season.

So before we try to predict the future, let’s throw in one more assumption: a 6% inflation annual rate on that $5.5 million worth of a win. With all that, here’s how Cano’s next nine years project:

Length	Year	Age	WAR	$/W	Salary	Total Value
1	2014	31	4.8	$  5,830,000	$  27,984,000	$    27,984,000
2	2015	32	4.3	$  6,179,800	$  26,573,140	$    54,557,140
3	2016	33	3.6	$  6,550,588	$  23,582,117	$    78,139,257
4	2017	34	2.9	$  6,943,623	$  20,136,508	$    98,275,764
5	2018	35	2.2	$  7,360,241	$  16,192,529	$  114,468,294
6	2019	36	1.5	$  7,801,855	$  11,702,783	$  126,171,076
7	2020	37	0.8	$  8,269,966	$    6,615,973	$  132,787,050
8	2021	38	0.1	$  8,766,164	$    876,616	$  133,663,666

That’s just over $130 million in total value. Which is funny, because all signs point to him seeking nothing less than $200 million over that same period. It’s pretty obvious which side will end up getting the better deal here. But that’s the price of doing business in the modern market. Teams are becoming smarter about locking up premier players before they hit free agency, and the clear message is that if you want the best, you’re going to have to pony up. Despite the statistical evidence, Cano’s closest benchmark is likely the 10-year, $214-million megacontract given to Prince Fielder last year. That deal factors in a $24 million annual average value, and applying that to Cano would put him right around $200 million over eight years.

It will now be the Yankees’ job to negotiate that down as far as they can without losing him for good. New York is in an uncharacteristically frugal era, trying to keep their annual payroll under $189 million so as to avoid luxury tax penalties that could cost the team as much as $70 million. That goal is within striking distance, especially with just three players under contract through 2014 (CC Sabathia, Alex Rodriguez and Mark Teixeira). Adding Cano to that roster would take up a chunk of space, but is nevertheless doable. And while this might not be the win-at-all-costs Steinbrenner team of the ‘90s and 2000s, his sons have been upfront about wanting to franchise their star infielder. The odds are that the Yankees end up retaining Cano, though nothing is guaranteed until the contract is signed. Well, one thing is. Robinson Cano is going to get paid.

Joe Schackman is a co-founder of Began in '96.

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By Adam Cancryn

Barry Zito threw an impressive complete-game shutout in his first outing, but figuring out what that means for the beleaguered hurler takes some digging.

You'd be forgiven if you didn't believe it at first. Few would have if the evidence weren't right there in black and white, staring up from the cozy confines of a box score.

The line read nine innings, four hits, zero runs, zero walks and four strikeouts. And just in front of those numbers came the real surprise: Barry Zito (W, 1-0).

Yes, that Barry Zito. He of the 43-61 record and 4.55 ERA over the past four years. The owner of a seven-year, $126 million contract widely derided as the worst deal in baseball. The man who spent his time in Oakland mesmerizing the league with the black magic he modestly called a curveball, only to be exposed as just another run-of-the-mill street magician once he arrived in the big city. Yes, that Barry Zito took the mound on April 9, and over the next two hours and 52 minutes, shut down the opposing Colorado Rockies.

The victory was stunning, not only because of his past poor performance, but because of what such an outing might mean for the future. After an offseason spent rebuilding his delivery, are these early returns an indication of things to come? Is this the 20-game winner that San Francisco imagined he would be when they acquired him back in 2007? The Giants would love to believe it, and a closer look reveals there's some reason for hope.

The first thing to understand is that the old Barry Zito is dead, and in truth he should have died a lot sooner. The lollipop curveballs that the lefty mixed in with his fastball were devastating during his 20s. But once hitters realized that the curve was his only above-average pitch, the jig was up.

That revelation occurred around 2008, a season in which Zito threw his curve 22.0 percent of the time (the highest percentage during his tenure with the Giants) and was rewarded with 17 losses and a 5.15 ERA. Rather than flailing at the knee-bucklers like before, batters were waiting out the curve and forcing Zito to find the zone on his own. The new strategy exposed Zito's inability to pinpoint his pitches. A career-low (to that point) 7.1% of Zito's strikes came via the swing and miss that year, resulting in a career-low 120 strikeouts and career-high 102 walks.

via FanGraphs

That should have been the signal that Zito needed a new approach. But he stuck with what had worked in the past, even as his opponents adapted. Though no season would be quite as bad as that 2008, he never came close to the pitcher he once was. Zito went 19-27 with an even 100 ERA+ over the next two seasons. He was a mediocre player with a top-flight salary.

The much-needed change finally came this past offseason, following an injury-plagued 2011. His new delivery has him crouched more toward the ground in an effort to lower his center of gravity. More importantly is the modified motion developed alongside an increased arsenal of pitches. Where Zito was once a straight fastball-curveball-changeup pitcher, his repertoire is now dominated by more effective variations on each.

The result was a markedly different pitcher agains the Rockies than the one we've seen over the past few years. From a release point roughly six inches to a foot lower than before, Zito employed six different pitches against the Rockies, including three types of fastball (four-seam, two-seam and cutter). In fact, he relied on those supporting pitches so much that the four-seam fastball barely made an appearance. Zito over the course of his 114 pitches went with the straight heater just 7.9 percent of the time, preferring the two-seamer (28.9 percent) and cutter (18.4 percent) instead. Compare that to 2010, when he threw the fastball 40.8 percent of the time, versus the two-seamer (21.4 percent) and cutter (4.8 percent).

via FanGraphs

The additional movement on Zito's pitches kept Colorado's hitters off balance and prevented them from sitting on any one pitch. Even better, he threw all those pitches reliably for strikes, hitting the zone more than six out of every 10 times and avoiding any walks. After years of relying on pure talent, Zito on April 9 was a more cerebral pitcher, more likely to retire hitters with prime placement and unpredictability than sheer stuff.

The shutout is certainly a step in the right direction, an indication that he is willing to embrace his current skills and reinvent himself rather than clinging to things that made him famous. The question now is whether a reinvented Zito can be as consistently good as the original once was.

There are certainly still some red flags, even amid his brilliant first outing. Zito's pitches rarely miss bats, meaning he is, to some extent, at the mercy of the batter's skill and placement. The Rockies' batting average on balls put in play (BABIP) on April 9 was .143, well below the baseline of .300. Had Colorado gotten a little luckier with where it hit the ball, the game could have turned out much different.

Similarly, Zito still allows too many fly balls. About 46 percent of the balls put in play that day went to the outfield, a higher fly ball rate than he's recorded in any season. More fly balls mean more chances for some to fly out of the park, and though it's a small sample size, it nevertheless bears watching. While Zito ended the day with a 0.00 ERA, his xFIP—which measures a player's ERA when factoring in league-average fielding and home run rate—stood at a much higher 3.87.

These are the tea leaves that carry Zito into his next start against the Pittsburgh Pirates. They are no doubt promising, an indication that he might have finally turned the corner. But whether Zito turns that corner and then starts down a better path will only be revealed in time.

Adam Cancryn is an editor and co-founder of Began in '96.

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By Adam Cancryn

New York Knicks small forward Steve Novak has only one job: hit three-pointers.

About two minutes into the fourth quarter of the Sunday matinee between the New York Knicks and Boston Celtics, small forward Steve Novak took a pass from J.R. Smith, set himself, and calmly nailed a 25-foot jumper. It was his fourth three-pointer of the day, and his 113th in a season that ranks among the most specialized in NBA history.

To understand Steve Novak, it's best to first explain what he does not do. He does not play basketball, at least not in the traditional sense. He rarely dribbles or passes; Novak is utilized just 18% of the time he's on the floor, and averages a meager 0.2 assists per game. Despite standing nearly seven feet tall, he does not rebound (1.6 per game), plays subpar perimeter defense and nonexistent interior defense. Creating with the ball is a foreign act, and as a result, Novak rarely draws fouls. The fact that he hasn't missed a foul shot in two years sounds impressive, until you realize that he's only taken 16 of them. By comparison, 21 players made 16 free throws in a single game last season.

But he does do one thing. Steve Novak hits threes, and he often hits them at the most opportune moments. In the drive-and-kick offense that the Knicks now employ under point guard Jeremy Lin, that skill is as valuable as ever. 

Novak has always played the role of three-point specialist. At Marquette, more than seven out of every 10 field goal attempts came from beyond the arc. That trend continued through his first four pro seasons, where Novak hoisted a three about 71 percent of the time he shot the ball, the highest rate in NBA history. 

The results have been similarly consistent. Novak makes threes at nearly the same clip he does two-point field goals (46.9 percent from three versus 51.9 percent from two this year), and in fact shot a better three-point percentage than two-point percentage during the 2010-11 season. 

Despite his shooting prowess, though, Novak never found a steady role with a team until this year. He spent time as a little-used role player for four teams, eventually getting cut by the Sacramento Kings. For those organizations, his three-point contributions simply didn't outweigh his deficiencies everywhere else. 

However, Novak appears to have found a home in New York, mainly because the Knicks already have an abundance of penetrators and paint guys. Where Novak's unwillingness to leave the three-point line was a weakness elsewhere, here it stretches the floor and gives players like Carmelo Anthony, Amar'e Stoudemire and Landry Fields more room to dribble and drive. If they get doubled inside, Novak is a reliable and dangerous outlet. Add in Lin, the distributor, and you have a well-balanced team and the perfect environment for Novak to thrive. Through 25 games, Novak has taken an unprecedented 80.7 percent of his total shots from three, and made those attempts at the fourth-highest rate in the NBA. 

Of course, balance is just one of many attributes needed to win in the NBA, and the Knicks are still tinkering. The signing of sharpshooter J.R. Smith was a tacit admission that Novak is one cold streak away from the far end of the bench, and Baron Davis' return has further crowded the backcourt. 

But Novak has held his ground by doing what he has always done, hitting three after three like a sweet-shooting savant. And when the Knicks need their next big late-game basket, you can be sure Novak will be sitting in the corner, waiting for a pass he can turn into the latest of his long-range daggers.

The Week Ahead (all times EST)- Your guide to what to watch-- and what to watch for-- this coming week

College Basketball- Championship Week
Gonzaga v. St. Mary's- March 5 at 9 p.m. (ESPN)
Pittsburgh at St. John's- March 6 at 2 p.m. (ESPN2)
Big East Tournament- March 6-10 (TBD)
Big 12 Tournament- March 7-10 (TBD)
ACC Tournament- March 8-11 (TBD)
Big 10 Tournament- March 8-11 (TBD)
NBA
Mavericks at Thunder- March 5 at 8 p.m. (NBATV)
Hawks at Heat- March 7 at 7:30 p.m. (NBATV)
Magic at Bulls- March 8 at 8 p.m. (TNT)
76ers at Knicks- March 11 at noon (NBATV)

NHL
Rangers at Devils- March 6 at 7 p.m. (MSG+)
Lightning at Capitals- March 8 at 7 p.m. (NHLNET)
Rangers at Blackhawks- March 9 at 8:30 p.m. (NHLNET)
Bruins at Penguins- March 11 at 12:30 p.m. (NBC)
Golf
World Golf Championships- Cadillac Championship- March 8-11 (NBC/TGC)
Baseball Spring Training
Washington Nationals outfielder Bryce Harper is scheduled to start against the New York Mets March 5 at 6:10 p.m. The game will be televised on MLB Network.

In the Kitchen- Tracking the major hot stove stories

• The Green Bay Packers have until 4 p.m. on March 5 to place the franchise tag on backup quarterback Matt Flynn or else allow him to become an unrestricted free agent. There are arguments to be made for either action, but the majority opinion is that Green Bay will cut Flynn loose unless they already have a sign-and-trade deal in place. If he becomes a free agent, the Miami Dolphins and Cleveland Browns are expected to take a hard look at him, among others.
• The San Diego Padres signed 24-year-old outfielder Cameron Maybin to a five-year extension worth $25 million, with a sixth year option that could pay $7 million to $8 million. The contract is the first extension longer than three years the Padres have given a player since Adrian Gonzalez and Chris Young in 2007, MLBTradeRumors.com said.
• The Texas Rangers also signed an outfielder, 17-year-old Dominican Jairo Beras. However, there is a possibility the MLB will nullify the contract because of questions about whether he is 17 or 16 years old. If he's 16, he's ineligible to sign.
• Catcher Bengie Molina has retired after playing 13 seasons for four seasons. Molina didn't play during the 2011 season, but had remained eligible until now. the 37-year-old finishes his career with a .274/.307/.411 split and 144 home runs.

Web Gems- The week's best, worst or strangest Internet sports finds

Only 19, Harper is dealing with expectations as the next big thing- The latest on Nationals phenom Bryce Harper and his adjustment to Major League life.

B.S. Report transcript: Barack Obama- Bill Simmons interviewed President Obama about a number of sports topics, including Jeremy Lin, Chicago sports and the stress of throwing out the first pitch.

UGA soccer player charged with stealing hashbrowns- "A University of Georgia soccer player is charged with trying to steal an order of hashbrown potatoes in her pants."

The Sacramento Bee's captivating images from the first weeks of MLB Spring Training.

Coming Up- What's next at Began in '96

• Tuesday: The NFL and the bounty system by Joe Schackman.
• Thursday: Breaking down the odd case that is Matt Flynn, by Adam Cancryn.
• Friday: Joe Schackman on the new playoff system in the MLB

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By Joe Schackman

This is the first of a two-part series on what active major league players are bound for Cooperstown. In part 1 we will take a look only at hitters.

Baseball bludgeons you with sheer volume. You start with a simple three strikes and a nine-inning game. Then those games form three and four-game series, and then suddenly, you’re building on a season 162 games long.

As the bloated season treks on, it becomes easy to dismiss the significance of what you’re watching, and even the calm, consistent brilliance of great players like Albert Pujols can become monotonous.

All those thousands of at-bats and hundreds of games can make it difficult to measure a player’s worth when it comes time to evaluate his career and stack it up against his peers. Baseball has a gated community reserved for the best, but determining just who exactly is the best is no exact science. There are a million factors in a ballplayer’s career, and voters must simplify the matter down to a ‘yes’ or ‘no.’

That process undoubtedly opens the door for some less-than-stellar athletes, while simultaneously excluding a portion of the deserving ones, as outlined in Bill James’ Similarity Scores. But no matter the fact that there will be disagreements and snubs, it can be illuminating to capture a small cross-section of baseball history see how they measure up to the game’s greats. What follows is my personal attempt to decide which active players will one day be enshrined in Cooperstown. There are four categories:


The Jedi Council- The highest of the high. These guys are absolute locks and it’s not even a discussion.

The Vinegar Strokers- These players are almost there. They need to pad the stats a bit, but they’ll certainly be included in the conversation.

The Mavericks- They’re young and face a number of unknowns, but are already on their way to being remembered among the best. Can they keep it up?

The Vince Howards- Babyfaced and raw, they have a LONG way to go. However, each has the talent necessary to put together a great career.

We’re looking at hitters this week, and saving pitchers are for another day. I’m using wins above replacement (WAR) as a baseline, a statistic that’s a great starting point because it tends to have the most direct correlation to Hall of Fame induction. The rule of thumb is that a player with a WAR of 55 is a decent candidate, while the average inductee has a WAR of about 60. Remember also that WAR is a counting stat, so the longer a player stays in the league, the higher his total WAR.

This is about determining who should get into the Hall of Fame, not who will. However, I will take into account general voting habits, meaning guys like Manny Ramirez are be left out because their steroid use. Also, peak years will play a factor, meaning no Omar Vizquel. We are only talking about active Major Leaguers.

(NOTE: I am using Baseball Reference WAR, but will refer to Fangraphs if need be)

The Jedi Council

Albert Pujols

He’s a three-time MVP and an absolute lock. Pujols does everything at the plate, hitting for average and power and drawing his fair share of walks. Though he still has a number of years left to play, he’s already one of the greatest all around hitters of all time. Never in his career has he hit less than 34 home runs in a season, and four times Pujols has led the National League in extra base hits. In addition to leading the league in various categories, he is consistent, amassing an average annual WAR of 8.06 (4.00 is generally considered All-Star level). Very few guys in baseball history make you stop what you’re doing to watch their at-bats. This is one of them.

Derek Jeter

Another guy who is guaranteed induction into the Hall of Fame. Even though his defense is statistically below-average, Jeter’s bat has made up for it. He rapped 200 hits in seven seasons, and has finished with an OBP over .400 three times. Jeter has consistently ranked among the league leaders in WAR and win probability added, all while winning five rings and being recognized as one of the game’s great class acts. All the the ol’ time sports writers love to romanticise the Yankee Captain, and at least some of that praise is well-deserved. Even if Mark Wahlberg shoots him in the leg tomorrow Jeter will be crutching his way across the stage.

Chipper Jones

I hate this man. I seriously do. He was so good against the Mets that he named his son “Shea,” which is like someone sleeping with your wife and then naming their illegitimate love child after you. Year in and year out, Chipper was one of the most consistent hitters. Put up great numbers or 18 seasons and you can waltz into Cooperstown.

Ivan Rodriquez

Playing catcher is no easy task, and the position’s physical demands have withered away even the best athletes, so much so that talented young catchers are now pre-emptively moved to other positions. That makes a guy like Pudge Rodriquez, who excelled as a hitter despite catching for 21 seasons, an even rarer find.

Yet despite his offensive prowess, what really separated Pudge from the rest was his fantastic defense. At his peak, his play behind the plate saved his team about 15 to 20 runs a season. So while Pudge’s career 50 WAR might not make him look like a sure thing, his case for the Hall is pretty simple: Rodriguez excelled as one of the league’s best defensive catchers for two decades, while also proving dangerous at the bat.

The Vinegar Strokers

Carlos Beltran

The term “five-tool player” is a wildly overused baseball phrase, especially compared to the few players that actually are those do-it-all guys. In Beltran’s case, though, the phrase fits. From his time in Kansas City to his days in NYC, he has been nothing short of spectacular, even if he rarely gets credit it for it.

Beltran started his career by winning the 1999 Rookie of the Year, and then went on to smash more than 20 home runs in 10 of his 14 seasons. His 2006 season was a thing of beauty, and would be better recognized as one of the best offensive seasons of the last 15 years if he hadn’t struck out looking to end the NLCS. Even last season, when his homers dropped, Beltran made up for it by piling up the doubles in spacious Citi Field and AT&T Park.

On defense, he is an accomplished center fielder, known for years as one of the top defensive outfielders, and his 88% stolen base success rate is among the best for baserunners. His all-around accomplishments make him the Dirk Nowitzki of the MLB, and if he can add one or two more seasons with solid numbers, the underrated Beltran should secure his place in the Hall.

Andruw Jones

Some will view it as criminal that Jones is on here, while Vizquel and Jim Thome get left off. But Jones presents a very interesting case: The former Braves centerfielder has compiled a 60.4 WAR on Baseball Reference and a 71.7 on Fangraphs (Jeter is at 74.4). Fangraphs usually gives a little more weight to defense, where Jones excelled. And that’s the debate for Jones: How much weight will people give his defense?

My feeling is that Jones was so dominant in the field it must be count significantly toward his candidacy. Baseball Reference has him as the second-best defender of all time (Vizquel is tied for 33rd). He had such an unbelievable range that he could play shallow in center field to protect against bloopers and soft liners, and still have the speed to track down shots into the gap and over his head.

Mavericks

David Wright

This is blatant homerism at its finest, but bear with me. From 2006 to 2008, Wright was arguably the second-best player in the National League (King Albert being No. 1), and over those three years, he put up a combined 18.5 WAR (21.2 according to Fangraphs). By comparison, Jeter’s best three-year streak (‘97-’99) ended in a WAR of 20.4 (18.3 on Fangraphs).

The real question for Wright over the next few years is whether he can regain his power stroke. During his dominant stretch, Wright blasted 26, 30 and 33 home runs, respectively. But in 2009, that number dropped to 10 homers. Last year he recovered somewhat, knocking 29 out of the park, a pace that needs to continue if Wright is going to make a legitimate run at the Hall of Fame.

Joe Mauer

Another catcher with great offensive skills, Mauer through eight seasons set a disgusting pace, accumulating a 40.3 career WAR and winning an MVP award. His hitting numbers are impressive by themselves, but are even more so when you recognize that he’s doing it all while squatting behind the plate.


The issue, though, is that Mauer’s days at catcher are numbered. He broke down last year, and his bat is considered too valuable to the Twins to be held back by the wear and tear of catching. Whether Mauer can get back to full strength will determine the strength of his Hall-of-Fame resume. If he does, he’s likely a no-doubter, given that he has finished in the top 10 of MVP voting in each of the four seasons he has played 135 games or more.

Miguel Cabrera

Cabrera blasted a walk-off home run in the first game of his career, setting the tone for what he would do in the ensuing years. His powerful bat led the 2003 Marlins to a World Series victory over the New York Yankees, and over nine seasons, Miggy has produced a 40.2 career WAR. He hit 30 or more homers in seven of his nine MLB seasons, and recorded more than 40 doubles four times, leading the AL with 48 in 2011. And if you needed any more evidence of Cabrera’s power, you can use the isolated power (ISO) stat which is basically a measure of how good a player is at hitting for extra bases. Miggy’s career .239 ISO is pretty impressive and puts him above guys like Joey Votto, who is at .237 and Vladamir Guerrero at .235.

Evan Longoria

Longoria might belong in the category below this one, given that he’s just four years into his career. But what a four years it has been. Longoria has averaged a 6.03 WAR per season, the only player other than Pujols with a WAR-per-year over 6.00 wins. His career WAR, meanwhile, is already ahead of guys like Troy Tulowitzki and Ryan Howard, who have two and four more seasons on Longoria, respectively.
The third baseman’s bat has driven much of those gains; Longoria hit at least 20 home runs in each of his four seasons and drove in more than 100 runs in two seasons (‘99 and ‘11)

The Vince Howards

Andrew McCutchen

Three years into his career, McCutchen has established himself as a potential Hall of Fame candidate. However, whether he gets in will depend on how far voters come to recognize the less sexy aspects of baseball. The Pirates outfielder doesn’t boast big-time power, but what he lacks in pop he makes up for in efficiency. He has a career OBP of .365, and has improved his walk rate improved, taking ball four in 13.1 percent of his plate appearances.


Jason Heyward

Anytime a rookie puts up a 5.0 WAR season you have to take notice. Heyward burst onto the scene in 2009, hitting 18 home runs and finishing with a .393 OBP.

But Heyward hit a sophomore slump, and will have to prove that it was an anomaly. If he can get back on track, the sky is the limit.


Bryce Harper

This is quite the prediction, considering Harper hasn’t even had an at-bat in the Majors. But every indication is that this kid is the real deal. A shift to the outfield from catcher should help as well. There is no way the Nationals will allow their number one pick to risk his health behind the plate.


Joe Schackman is a co-founder and editor at Began in '96

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By Joe Schackman

Shortstop was a star-studded position in 90's and early 2000's. What happened?

Every little league team has that one kid who lives, eats, and breathes baseball. That kid who is a natural-born ballplayer: he is more athletic, works harder, and simply cares more about the game.

That kid is not playing first base. He’s not catching, and he’s not out in right field. That kid is, without a doubt, lining up between second and third, playing the most difficult position on the field: shortstop. And right before the pitch, when he settles down into his crouch, he is not dreaming of becoming a Jose Reyes or an Elvis Andrus; rather, he’s striving to be one of the big-hitting Hall-of-Fame shortstops that took the league by storm just a few years ago.

The golden age of shortstops has come and gone. In the 1990s and early 2000s, Major League Baseball hosted some of the most complete players to trot out to the position. Shortstops were traditionally slick-fielding, slash-hitting speed demons who excelled defensively and hit at the top of the order. But starting in 1991, the position added some serious offensive threats, hitters made for the middle of the order.

Since the Most Valuable Player Award was awarded for the first time in 1931, shortstops have won 15 times (though these were not 15 different players). Four of those wins came in during a 12-year stretch from '91 to '03: Ripken in ‘91, Larkin in ‘95, Miguel Tejada in ‘02 and Alex Rodriquez in ‘03.¹ They put up monster offensive stats, highlighted by Ripken’s 34 home runs and 11 WAR in 1991, which qualified as one of the top-80 seasons in the history of baseball.²

Even those teams without an MVP candidate at short seemed to have a premier player, guys like Omar Vizquel, Nomar Garciaparra, and late-career Ozzie Smith.

Today, however, the pool of elite shortstops is much, much smaller. Troy Tulowitzki is one of the best players in the game right now, but the list thins out after that. Hanley Ramirez’s shift over to third base to make room for Jose Reyes only emphasizes this point. Reyes is a high-quality shortstop, but cut from the traditional slash-hitting mold and injury prone.

The question we must ask ourselves now is, Why? Why did those 12 years produce talented players at a position that has never seen that type of production? The answer is not exactly clear.

The first thought would be that teams today have shifted their focus back to defensive-minded shortstops. With the concept of sabermetrics having permeated the league, it appears that defense is really the last fully unexplored frontier. Billy Beane and his Moneyball disciples can no longer find discounted offensive players, so they've tried to exploit the markets in other ways.

But the stats don't support that theory. In fact, if you compare Total Zone (TZ) data for 1996-2003 against data for 2004-10, you’ll find that the league’s shortstops played better overall defense from ‘96-’03 than '04-'10. Over the two periods, the average TZ was 1.17 compared with .55, respectively. Meaning shortstops on average saved their team one more run over the course of a season. Guys like Vizquel and Rey Ordonez might not have lit it up at the plate, but they were some of the best defenders the position has ever seen. They helped to balance out guys like Derek Jeter who, while they excelled at the plate, were below-average defenders.³

So why were the ‘90s the Gilded Age of shortstops? Well, it seems to simply be a matter of the stars aligning. For 12 years, most major shortstop prospects were able to stay healthy and reach the majors, and once there, they played to the best of their ability as a group.

Compare this to latest era of shortstop prosepcts and you’ll see guys who have serious talent but never quite lived up the the billing. Players like Stephen Drew, J.J. Hardy and Khalil Green had all the potential you could want, but have never managed to put it all together. There are also a number of prospects who started at shortstop, like B.J. Upton, Ian Kinsler and Brandon Phillips, that ended up playing elsewhere by the time they hit the MLB.

The cynic in us might look at the monster numbers from those 12 years and immediately jump to steroids. A-Rod and Tejada both testing positive during their careers may even make you feel as though you’re justified. PED use is the elephant in the room and it cannot be ignored. Yet while it may account for some of the increased production on an absolute level, don’t forget these guys were competing against other players doing steroids, from pitchers to other hitters. They racked up the MVP because they took their level of play above and beyond the league, not because they outproduced Honus Wagner’s 1908 season.

So while that kid on the little league field might not want to emulate Asdrubal Cabrera, he can still dream of guys like Larkin and Ripken. And when he strides to that plate, he can settle into the patented Jeter stance, hands high, ready to explode on the next pitch and bring the shortstop position back to the golden age.

Joe Schackman is a co-founder and editor at Began in '96.

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1) Since then, the MVP award has only been won once by a shortstop, Jimmy Rollins in 2006. A-Rod has since won it twice but as a third baseman.

2) To put this in perspective, Derek Jeter does not have a single season in the top 500. That's not a shot at Jeter, it just tells you how good Ripken was in 1991.

3) This is an argument for another day, but just so we are clear, Jeter is not a good defender. TZ basically measures how many runs a players defense saved his team. A TZ over the course of the season of 0 means a player did not save his team any runs nor did he cost them any runs. Only twice in his career has Jeter put up a TZ above 0, and even then it was a measly 2 and 5 respectively. The best season over that stretch was 40 runs in 2006 by Adam Everett.

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