Second to None

http://bleedingyankeeblue.blogspot.com/2011/08/why-phil-hughes-is-on-mission.html

By Joe Schackman

Robinson Cano will be a free agent in 2014. So how big is that contract going to be?
Robinson Cano is in new territory. There have been 42 $100+ million contracts in MLB history, and excluding relief pitchers, they’ve covered every position on the diamond. Except second base. Seventeen to infielders, 12 to outfielders and 10 to starting pitchers. A distinguished list that doesn’t include any second basemen.

The closest so far was Ian Kinsler and his $75 million deal. But that will all change with Robinson Cano. Whether the Yankee star breaks the nine-digit mark isn’t a question. He almost certainly will, and could even become the fifth player to reach $200 million. But a negotiation for that much money is never simple, and even as the highest-paid second baseman ever, there could still remain a large gap between what Cano is worth and what he ends up earning.

Cano is, at the most basic level, an elite ballplayer. He’s a good fielder and more than capable hitter, slugging more 25 home runs in four of his six full major league seasons and peaking last year with a career-high 33. The rare power hitter with a great ability to make consistent contact, Cano finished in the American League’s top 10 in hits nearly every year since 2007 and ranked sixth in on-base percentege in ‘10 and ‘12. He’s got one of those smooth, sweeping left-handed swings tailor-made for Yankee Stadium’s short porch, but away from home is just as effective at targeting the outfield gaps. And on defense, Cano’s athleticism often makes up for any deficiencies. Though some advanced stats are not kind (a career -30.6 UZR from Fangraphs, mostly coming from his first 132 games as a major leaguer), he possesses the necessary range and arm for the right side of the infield. But what stands out the most is his sheer gracefulness; Cano seems to glide to every ball, the kind of casual speed normally reserved for outfielders.

All of that adds up to a player who, statistically, was one of the league’s best over the last few years. Cano’s 29.5 fWAR since 2007 is the ninth-best in the MLB and third among second baseman. Over the last three seasons, only Miguel Cabrera and Joey Votto compare with him on an fWAR basis, putting Cano in line for a major payday.

But then the question is, how big can that payday get? To get an idea, we should first start with what his past play tells us about Cano’s future value. Fangraphs projects a 5.3 WAR season in 2013 for the second baseman. Using Tom Tango’s philosophy on aging and play quality, we can assume that Cano will lose about 0.5 WAR per year in his 30s. The last element to consider is the market rate for a win, which is currently about $5.5 million. Putting those together, that means a 5.3 WAR season for Cano would be worth nearly $28 million to the Yankees, far more than the $15 million they’ve already agreed to pay him for this upcoming season.

So before we try to predict the future, let’s throw in one more assumption: a 6% inflation annual rate on that $5.5 million worth of a win. With all that, here’s how Cano’s next nine years project:

Length	Year	Age	WAR	$/W	Salary	Total Value
1	2014	31	4.8	$  5,830,000	$  27,984,000	$    27,984,000
2	2015	32	4.3	$  6,179,800	$  26,573,140	$    54,557,140
3	2016	33	3.6	$  6,550,588	$  23,582,117	$    78,139,257
4	2017	34	2.9	$  6,943,623	$  20,136,508	$    98,275,764
5	2018	35	2.2	$  7,360,241	$  16,192,529	$  114,468,294
6	2019	36	1.5	$  7,801,855	$  11,702,783	$  126,171,076
7	2020	37	0.8	$  8,269,966	$    6,615,973	$  132,787,050
8	2021	38	0.1	$  8,766,164	$    876,616	$  133,663,666

That’s just over $130 million in total value. Which is funny, because all signs point to him seeking nothing less than $200 million over that same period. It’s pretty obvious which side will end up getting the better deal here. But that’s the price of doing business in the modern market. Teams are becoming smarter about locking up premier players before they hit free agency, and the clear message is that if you want the best, you’re going to have to pony up. Despite the statistical evidence, Cano’s closest benchmark is likely the 10-year, $214-million megacontract given to Prince Fielder last year. That deal factors in a $24 million annual average value, and applying that to Cano would put him right around $200 million over eight years.

It will now be the Yankees’ job to negotiate that down as far as they can without losing him for good. New York is in an uncharacteristically frugal era, trying to keep their annual payroll under $189 million so as to avoid luxury tax penalties that could cost the team as much as $70 million. That goal is within striking distance, especially with just three players under contract through 2014 (CC Sabathia, Alex Rodriguez and Mark Teixeira). Adding Cano to that roster would take up a chunk of space, but is nevertheless doable. And while this might not be the win-at-all-costs Steinbrenner team of the ‘90s and 2000s, his sons have been upfront about wanting to franchise their star infielder. The odds are that the Yankees end up retaining Cano, though nothing is guaranteed until the contract is signed. Well, one thing is. Robinson Cano is going to get paid.

Joe Schackman is a co-founder of Began in '96.