By Joe Schackman
This is the first of a two-part series on what active major league players are bound for Cooperstown. In part 1 we will take a look only at hitters.
Baseball bludgeons you with sheer volume. You start with a simple three strikes and a nine-inning game. Then those games form three and four-game series, and then suddenly, you’re building on a season 162 games long.
As the bloated season treks on, it becomes easy to dismiss the significance of what you’re watching, and even the calm, consistent brilliance of great players like Albert Pujols can become monotonous.
All those thousands of at-bats and hundreds of games can make it difficult to measure a player’s worth when it comes time to evaluate his career and stack it up against his peers. Baseball has a gated community reserved for the best, but determining just who exactly is the best is no exact science. There are a million factors in a ballplayer’s career, and voters must simplify the matter down to a ‘yes’ or ‘no.’
That process undoubtedly opens the door for some less-than-stellar athletes, while simultaneously excluding a portion of the deserving ones, as outlined in Bill James’ Similarity Scores. But no matter the fact that there will be disagreements and snubs, it can be illuminating to capture a small cross-section of baseball history see how they measure up to the game’s greats. What follows is my personal attempt to decide which active players will one day be enshrined in Cooperstown. There are four categories:
The Jedi Council- The highest of the high. These guys are absolute locks and it’s not even a discussion.
The Vinegar Strokers- These players are almost there. They need to pad the stats a bit, but they’ll certainly be included in the conversation.
The Mavericks- They’re young and face a number of unknowns, but are already on their way to being remembered among the best. Can they keep it up?
The Vince Howards- Babyfaced and raw, they have a LONG way to go. However, each has the talent necessary to put together a great career.
We’re looking at hitters this week, and saving pitchers are for another day. I’m using wins above replacement (WAR) as a baseline, a statistic that’s a great starting point because it tends to have the most direct correlation to Hall of Fame induction. The rule of thumb is that a player with a WAR of 55 is a decent candidate, while the average inductee has a WAR of about 60. Remember also that WAR is a counting stat, so the longer a player stays in the league, the higher his total WAR.
This is about determining who should get into the Hall of Fame, not who will. However, I will take into account general voting habits, meaning guys like Manny Ramirez are be left out because their steroid use. Also, peak years will play a factor, meaning no Omar Vizquel. We are only talking about active Major Leaguers.
(NOTE: I am using Baseball Reference WAR, but will refer to Fangraphs if need be)
The Jedi Council
Albert Pujols
He’s a three-time MVP and an absolute lock. Pujols does everything at the plate, hitting for average and power and drawing his fair share of walks. Though he still has a number of years left to play, he’s already one of the greatest all around hitters of all time. Never in his career has he hit less than 34 home runs in a season, and four times Pujols has led the National League in extra base hits. In addition to leading the league in various categories, he is consistent, amassing an average annual WAR of 8.06 (4.00 is generally considered All-Star level). Very few guys in baseball history make you stop what you’re doing to watch their at-bats. This is one of them.
Derek Jeter
Another guy who is guaranteed induction into the Hall of Fame. Even though his defense is statistically below-average, Jeter’s bat has made up for it. He rapped 200 hits in seven seasons, and has finished with an OBP over .400 three times. Jeter has consistently ranked among the league leaders in WAR and win probability added, all while winning five rings and being recognized as one of the game’s great class acts. All the the ol’ time sports writers love to romanticise the Yankee Captain, and at least some of that praise is well-deserved. Even if Mark Wahlberg shoots him in the leg tomorrow Jeter will be crutching his way across the stage.
Chipper Jones
I hate this man. I seriously do. He was so good against the Mets that he named his son “Shea,” which is like someone sleeping with your wife and then naming their illegitimate love child after you. Year in and year out, Chipper was one of the most consistent hitters. Put up great numbers or 18 seasons and you can waltz into Cooperstown.
Ivan Rodriquez
Playing catcher is no easy task, and the position’s physical demands have withered away even the best athletes, so much so that talented young catchers are now pre-emptively moved to other positions. That makes a guy like Pudge Rodriquez, who excelled as a hitter despite catching for 21 seasons, an even rarer find.
Yet despite his offensive prowess, what really separated Pudge from the rest was his fantastic defense. At his peak, his play behind the plate saved his team about 15 to 20 runs a season. So while Pudge’s career 50 WAR might not make him look like a sure thing, his case for the Hall is pretty simple: Rodriguez excelled as one of the league’s best defensive catchers for two decades, while also proving dangerous at the bat.
I hate this man. I seriously do. He was so good against the Mets that he named his son “Shea,” which is like someone sleeping with your wife and then naming their illegitimate love child after you. Year in and year out, Chipper was one of the most consistent hitters. Put up great numbers or 18 seasons and you can waltz into Cooperstown.
Ivan Rodriquez
Playing catcher is no easy task, and the position’s physical demands have withered away even the best athletes, so much so that talented young catchers are now pre-emptively moved to other positions. That makes a guy like Pudge Rodriquez, who excelled as a hitter despite catching for 21 seasons, an even rarer find.
Yet despite his offensive prowess, what really separated Pudge from the rest was his fantastic defense. At his peak, his play behind the plate saved his team about 15 to 20 runs a season. So while Pudge’s career 50 WAR might not make him look like a sure thing, his case for the Hall is pretty simple: Rodriguez excelled as one of the league’s best defensive catchers for two decades, while also proving dangerous at the bat.
The Vinegar Strokers
Carlos Beltran
The term “five-tool player” is a wildly overused baseball phrase, especially compared to the few players that actually are those do-it-all guys. In Beltran’s case, though, the phrase fits. From his time in Kansas City to his days in NYC, he has been nothing short of spectacular, even if he rarely gets credit it for it.
Beltran started his career by winning the 1999 Rookie of the Year, and then went on to smash more than 20 home runs in 10 of his 14 seasons. His 2006 season was a thing of beauty, and would be better recognized as one of the best offensive seasons of the last 15 years if he hadn’t struck out looking to end the NLCS. Even last season, when his homers dropped, Beltran made up for it by piling up the doubles in spacious Citi Field and AT&T Park.
On defense, he is an accomplished center fielder, known for years as one of the top defensive outfielders, and his 88% stolen base success rate is among the best for baserunners. His all-around accomplishments make him the Dirk Nowitzki of the MLB, and if he can add one or two more seasons with solid numbers, the underrated Beltran should secure his place in the Hall.
Andruw Jones
Some will view it as criminal that Jones is on here, while Vizquel and Jim Thome get left off. But Jones presents a very interesting case: The former Braves centerfielder has compiled a 60.4 WAR on Baseball Reference and a 71.7 on Fangraphs (Jeter is at 74.4). Fangraphs usually gives a little more weight to defense, where Jones excelled. And that’s the debate for Jones: How much weight will people give his defense?
Some will view it as criminal that Jones is on here, while Vizquel and Jim Thome get left off. But Jones presents a very interesting case: The former Braves centerfielder has compiled a 60.4 WAR on Baseball Reference and a 71.7 on Fangraphs (Jeter is at 74.4). Fangraphs usually gives a little more weight to defense, where Jones excelled. And that’s the debate for Jones: How much weight will people give his defense?
My feeling is that Jones was so dominant in the field it must be count significantly toward his candidacy. Baseball Reference has him as the second-best defender of all time (Vizquel is tied for 33rd). He had such an unbelievable range that he could play shallow in center field to protect against bloopers and soft liners, and still have the speed to track down shots into the gap and over his head.
Mavericks
This is blatant homerism at its finest, but bear with me. From 2006 to 2008, Wright was arguably the second-best player in the National League (King Albert being No. 1), and over those three years, he put up a combined 18.5 WAR (21.2 according to Fangraphs). By comparison, Jeter’s best three-year streak (‘97-’99) ended in a WAR of 20.4 (18.3 on Fangraphs).
The real question for Wright over the next few years is whether he can regain his power stroke. During his dominant stretch, Wright blasted 26, 30 and 33 home runs, respectively. But in 2009, that number dropped to 10 homers. Last year he recovered somewhat, knocking 29 out of the park, a pace that needs to continue if Wright is going to make a legitimate run at the Hall of Fame.
Joe Mauer
Another catcher with great offensive skills, Mauer through eight seasons set a disgusting pace, accumulating a 40.3 career WAR and winning an MVP award. His hitting numbers are impressive by themselves, but are even more so when you recognize that he’s doing it all while squatting behind the plate.
The issue, though, is that Mauer’s days at catcher are numbered. He broke down last year, and his bat is considered too valuable to the Twins to be held back by the wear and tear of catching. Whether Mauer can get back to full strength will determine the strength of his Hall-of-Fame resume. If he does, he’s likely a no-doubter, given that he has finished in the top 10 of MVP voting in each of the four seasons he has played 135 games or more.
Miguel Cabrera
Cabrera blasted a walk-off home run in the first game of his career, setting the tone for what he would do in the ensuing years. His powerful bat led the 2003 Marlins to a World Series victory over the New York Yankees, and over nine seasons, Miggy has produced a 40.2 career WAR. He hit 30 or more homers in seven of his nine MLB seasons, and recorded more than 40 doubles four times, leading the AL with 48 in 2011. And if you needed any more evidence of Cabrera’s power, you can use the isolated power (ISO) stat which is basically a measure of how good a player is at hitting for extra bases. Miggy’s career .239 ISO is pretty impressive and puts him above guys like Joey Votto, who is at .237 and Vladamir Guerrero at .235.
Evan Longoria
Longoria might belong in the category below this one, given that he’s just four years into his career. But what a four years it has been. Longoria has averaged a 6.03 WAR per season, the only player other than Pujols with a WAR-per-year over 6.00 wins. His career WAR, meanwhile, is already ahead of guys like Troy Tulowitzki and Ryan Howard, who have two and four more seasons on Longoria, respectively.
The third baseman’s bat has driven much of those gains; Longoria hit at least 20 home runs in each of his four seasons and drove in more than 100 runs in two seasons (‘99 and ‘11)
The Vince Howards
Andrew McCutchen
Three years into his career, McCutchen has established himself as a potential Hall of Fame candidate. However, whether he gets in will depend on how far voters come to recognize the less sexy aspects of baseball. The Pirates outfielder doesn’t boast big-time power, but what he lacks in pop he makes up for in efficiency. He has a career OBP of .365, and has improved his walk rate improved, taking ball four in 13.1 percent of his plate appearances.
Jason Heyward
Anytime a rookie puts up a 5.0 WAR season you have to take notice. Heyward burst onto the scene in 2009, hitting 18 home runs and finishing with a .393 OBP.
But Heyward hit a sophomore slump, and will have to prove that it was an anomaly. If he can get back on track, the sky is the limit.
Bryce Harper
This is quite the prediction, considering Harper hasn’t even had an at-bat in the Majors. But every indication is that this kid is the real deal. A shift to the outfield from catcher should help as well. There is no way the Nationals will allow their number one pick to risk his health behind the plate.
Joe Schackman is a co-founder and editor at Began in '96
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