Bourn Free

www.amazinavenue.com

By Joe Schackman

Why is Michael Bourn still sitting at home? It has something to do with his agent.

Scott Boras is likely the first person that comes to mind when you think of a sports agent. And with good reason; he’s built his reputation on helping the some best baseball players in the world ink some of the biggest contracts in history. Of the four $200 million deals ever signed in Major League Baseball, Boras had a hand in three of them. He’s a super agent.

But even a super agent fails sometimes, and Michael Bourn is in the middle of finding that out.

Any conversation about Bourn’s lengthy free agency has to include Boras, because Boras is the main reason that the former Atlanta Braves outfielder is still sitting at home. It’s clear that Bourn still has the kind of talent coveted by big-league teams. He was ranked among the top three defenders by both Baseball Reference and Fangraphs at a premium position, and is a potent leadoff hitter at the plate. What he lacks in power (a career-high nine in 2012), he makes up for with a decent walk rate and excellent speed on the basepaths. As an overall offensive package, he’s a solid addition to any lineup. Couple that with his best-in-show defense, and you have a player consistently putting up 4+ WAR seasons. The stats all say the same thing: Michael Bourn is a very good baseball player.

So in a market that shelled out $125 million for Josh Hamilton and $75 million for B.J. Upton, why is the best player available still without a home?

Part of the answer is that teams are worried about investing in a player whose talents might not age so well. As Dave Cameron detailed a few weeks ago at Fangraphs, players who excel defensively from from ages 18 to 29 tend to drop off significantly after they hit 30. Andruw Jones, Carl Crawford and Aaron Rowand are each recent cautionary tales. With so much of Bourn’s value wrapped in outfield range that could quickly diminish, there could be some hesitation in giving him a lengthy and potentially bloated contract.

Then, of course, there’s the Boras factor. He’s notorious for extracting big-money contracts for players that at times haven’t panned out as expected, and as a result teams have learned to think twice before jumping into bed with him. With Bourn, he’s used his traditional method of dangling his client on the open market far longer than any other top player. The advantage is that there is no disputing that Bourn is the best one available. But in the meantime, the demand for him has shrunk. The Nationals, A’s, Braves, Red Sox and Angels all addressed their needs with other players through free agency or a trade while Boras was driving a hard bargain.

Bourn will play somewhere next year, though, even if it takes him longer than he’d like. The Mets would make the most sense given their current outfield personnel, which is the worst in the league. Lucas Duda is a horrible defender, center field is a platoon between Kirk Nieuwenhuis and newcomer Colin Cowgill, and Mike Baxter and Andrew Brown are battling it out in right field. Bourn would give them one legitimate everyday outfielder, and help them cover Citi Field’s cavernous confines. But there are some major obstacles. New York is still mired in its messy financial situation, and signing Type-A free agent Bourn would mean forfeiting their top draft pick. Though the Mets were the 10th-worst team in the league last year, they’re picking 11th because the Pirates couldn’t sign their first rounder from last year. That means the typical protections for top-10 picks don’t apply to New York, unless the MLB grants them an exception. Should Bud Selig rule in their favor, they could be a good bet to end up with Bourn. Without that, though, it seems unlikely.

If not the Mets, the Mariners and Rangers are the top contenders. Seattle has flirted with outfielders this entire offseason, from their Josh Hamilton pipe dream to a legitimate courtship of Nick Swisher that ended when he signed with Cleveland. Adding Bourn would instantly infuse them with much-needed talent. But like the Mets, it would mean giving up a relatively high first-round pick (No. 12). They’ve also been burned in the past by a poorly aging defensive wonder. After watching Chone Figgins and his four-year, $36 million deal flame out, they might not be too eager to pony up the cash again.

Texas also has a hole at center field after Hamilton’s departure, and has also missed on just about every free agent and trade prospect so far this offseason. Bourn would mitigate that issue, especially with Nelson Cruz facing a 50-game suspension. But in the Rangers’ hitter-friendly ballpark, his defensive value would also be somewhat limited. They might instead opt to give homegrown Leonys Martin a shot at the job, rather than commit to a long-term contract.

Outside of those three, it looks bleak for the last remaining big talent. Though Prince Fielder played a similar role of odd man out last year and got a nine-year, $214 million deal, that only came after Victor Martinez tore his ACL and the Tigers found themselves with an unexpected hole to fill. And don’t forget, Fielder signed his contract on Jan. 26. We’re now into early February.

If all else fails, Bourn could always take a one-year deal and reset his market next year. That would bring a lot of teams back into the mix, including the Yankees and Phillies. It’s always a risk though, especially after coming off a career year. As hard as it might be to believe, Bourn’s value might never be higher than it is now, and the super agent Boras might have overplayed his hand.

Joe Schackman is a co-founder of Began in '96