A team on team crime

Via Looplane

By Joe Schackman

So far, the ballyhooed Jesus Montero for Michael Pineda trade looks like a dud, for both sides.

Not every trade works out. From the playground to the corporate boardroom, swapping assets is often more art than science. Sometimes you strike gold, other times you get hosed.

Two months ago, when Michael Pineda went down for at least this season with a labrum tear in his shoulder, Yankee fans thought for sure they’d been had by the Mariners front office. But now just a few months later, the outcome isn't so clear. The catching prospect they let go, Jesus Montero, is so far nothing like what Seattle thought they were getting.

A power-hitting catcher is one of the rarest and therefore most valuable assets in baseball. Of the 134 players to hit more than 300 home runs in their careers, just seven were catchers. And Mike Piazza is the only one to crack 400. Compare that with first base, where 42 players have hit more than 300 home runs, nine players have hit more than 500 and one has even hit more than 600. 

That stat has a bit of a selection bias, of course, because promising young power hitters are not often put behind the plate. Life as a catcher ain’t easy, and the position’s physical demands take a toll. Catchers are more susceptible to injuries and fatigue, and thus require more days off than the average fielder. Therefore, teams are more likely to transition their power hitters into corner infielders or outfielders, where they can play almost everyday. 

Sometimes, that even happens to elite catchers. Joe Mauer and Buster Posey are getting more action at first base in hopes it will prolong their careers. Bryce Harper, a catcher up until he went pro, was moved to the outfield as soon as the Nationals drafted him. Having a big bat in the catcher’s spot can be a boon for the offense, but most times it’s not worth the risk to those players’ health. 

The Mariners were willing to take that risk, though. The tantalizing thought of having the powerful Montero at catcher along with the usual production from the corner spots proved too much to resist. So they dealt their best young pitcher, Pineda, to chase the dream.

At the time of the deal, Montero had torn it up at every level. He slugged .491 in A ball and .493 over two seasons in triple-A. Then he followed that with an 18-game stint in the Majors where Montero hit .328 with four homers and four doubles, stats good enough to equal a 0.6 WAR. 

But fast forward to 2012, and that sweet stroke has faltered. He sits at a mediocre .258/.298/.393, and even more alarmingly, has struck out in more than 21% of his at bats. That over-aggression wouldn’t be too concerning for a young hitter, except for his complete aversion to walks, a double dose of bad news that puts his walk-to-strikeout ratio in the same neighborhood as Delmon Young, Chris Davis and Jeff Francoeur. 

Unfortunately for the Mariners, Montero does them few favors in the field either. His defense prevented him from a quicker promotion when he was with the Yankees, and some have already wondered whether Montero can remain a catcher over long term. 

The ineptitude at the plate, combined with his shaky play behind it, has put Montero at a -0.1 WAR this year, meaning he is completely replaceable. Meaning, he was more valuable in 18 games last year than he has been in 82 thus far this year. 

Now, the jury is certainly still out on the Montero-for-Pineda swap. Montero is just 22, after all, and has less than 400 career at bats. Similarly, Pineda is 23, and has already shown he can dominate major league hitters. Five years from now we could look back at this and laugh. But right now, with both players far from meeting expectations, it’s an honest question which team got screwed more on this one.

Joe Schackman is an editor and co-founder of Began in '96.