Sizing up the contenders

By Neill Thupari

With the NFL playoffs down to its final four, a breakdown of each team's championship hopes according to their (supposedly) most important player: their quarterback.

ESPN labeled the 2011-2012 NFL Season “The Year of the Quarterback,” which makes perfect sense because the four remaining teams heading into the Conference Championship weekend each have one of the few elite quarterbacks in the league.

It’s not like the new single-season passing-yard record holder was beaten last weekend by a team with a superior defense and a quarterback that had never won a playoff game (See Brees, Drew). It’s not like the other two quarterbacks who threw for over 40 touchdowns during the regular season have already exited the postseason due to their subpar efforts when facing comparatively strong defenses (See Rodgers, Aaron and Stafford, Matthew). But hey, it must be the Year of the Quarterback because ESPN told us so. 

So with that in mind, let’s rank the postseason's remaining signal callers, since their play and their play alone will be indicative of how their entire team will do on the road to Indianapolis.

1. Tom Brady, New England Patriots: Playoff Record 15-5. Super Bowl Wins: 3. Playoff Stats: 4,770 yards, 38 TDs, 17 INTs. 

On the surface, this looks like a runaway for Brady and his incessantly gritty Patriot squad. No quarterback left has won as much as Brady in the playoffs, no quarterback left has played as well as he has all year (5,235 yards, 39 TDs, 65.6% completion rate), and no other quarterback is dating Giselle. His tight end combo of Rob Gronkowski and Aaron Hernandez, combined with the ever courageous Wes Welker, means you’d be hard-pressed to find a defense that could stop this offensive juggernaut. I can tell you right now that the Ravens don’t have the defensive personnel to keep pace with the Pats, and I don’t believe the Giants or the 49ers do either. 

But, in true Belichickian form, Brady is downplaying his talent and accomplishments. This week Brady has been showering praise on the Ravens as “the toughest test” he has had yet this season. Keen observers of such obvious Patriot deflection know that behind closed doors, Brady is simply licking his chops at the thought of carving up the weak Ravens secondary and breaking his own record for most TDs in a playoff game. 

Pay no attention to the fact that the Patriots have not beaten a team that finished with a winning record this year. Forget about their 31st-ranked defense having played only four top-10 offenses all year, and while you do that, don’t worry about the fact that no team has ever finished with the 31st-ranked defense and won a Super Bowl. Pats fans, with Tom Brady at the helm, the Lombardi trophy is as good as yours.

2. Eli Manning, New York Giants: Playoff Record 4-4. Super Bowl Wins: 1. Playoff Stats: 1,574 yards, 10 TDs, 6 INTs. 

I learned this week on ESPN Radio’s The Herd with Colin Cowherd that we, as fans, apparently do not give the younger Manning the credit he deserves. 

According to Tim Hasselbeck, former backup quarterback for the New York Giants, Eli would routinely study films and gameplans all week leading up to a Sunday contest, only to have coach Tom Coughlin come up to him on Friday night, sometimes even Saturday, with an entirely new strategy that Eli would have to learn in time for the game Sunday. To say that such a practice was unorthodox would be an understatement, but Hasselbeck said it astounded him how Eli would be so quick to learn, master and execute these complex gameplans, despite having mentally prepared himself for something completely different all week. 

I remember when Eli was coming out of Ole Miss and a big knock on him was that he wasn’t nearly as smart as big brother Peyton in terms of his football IQ. Apparently, he’s doing just fine in his neck of the woods, and depending on his playoff performance this year, there might be a debate over the better Manning brother when all is said and done. It doesn’t hurt that he seems to have Tom Brady’s number as of late, or that his defense is as ferocious as they come, preying on quarterbacks that want to throw the ball downfield and dictate their offense through the air. 

3. Joe Flacco, Baltimore Ravens: Playoff Record 5-3. Super Bowl Wins: 0. Playoff Stats: 1,226 yards, 6 TDS, 7INTs. 

Despite Flacco’s rather stellar playoff record (especially for someone who’s been in the league for only four seasons), one glaring deficiency for Joe Cool is that he’s never actually had to win a playoff game by himself. Maybe this says more about the Ravens than Joe, but the fact of the matter is, Flacco has never had to put Baltimore on his back and singlehandedly lead them to victory in the postseason, so the jury is still out as to whether or not he could pull it off. Sure, he’s had flashes of brilliance in big games against the Steelers earlier this year, or on the road in Kansas City during last year’s playoffs, but he’s still prone to the occasional 137-yad, zero touchdown performance like we saw this year in Jacksonville. There hasn’t been a player this polarizing in Baltimore since Ravens fans faced the dilemma of rooting for felony murder defendant Ray Lewis.[1] 

Flacco’s been incredibly fortunate to have a top-tier defense each of his four years in the league, and because of that, he's never had to be much more than a great game manager. However, with a road trip to New England looming, it’s put up or shut up time for Flacco, and his performance this weekend will likely determine how he’ll be viewed in the annals of Raven history. Will he rise to the occasion, silence the critics and beat Tom Brady in a high-octane shootout? Or, will he shrink in the face of adversity, capping his potential in the NFL as a player that could never be a truly elite quarterback come playoff time? Either way, it’ll be interesting to watch. 

4. Alex Smith, San Francisco 49ers: Playoff Record 1-0. Super Bowl Wins: 0. Playoff Stats: 299 yards, 3 TDs, 0 INTs. 

Although the aforementioned quarterbacks share a wealth of playoff experience between them, Smith enters unchartered waters with a 49er squad that boasts the best defense in the NFC. However, Smith outdueled Drew Brees last week[2] in the most exciting game of the divisional round. He'll now have to do the same against a much better Giants defense.

Conventional wisdom states that the battle-tested Giants will wreak havoc on the pedestrian 49er offense, and Eli will lead them back to the promised land. No Giants fan is as easily convinced though, because they’re well aware that Eli and his crew are capable of throwing a stinker of two on their own as well, and a repeat of their past week’s excellent performance is no guarantee. 

As much as I would like to sit here and write about Smith’s potential as a playoff QB[3], the 49ers live and die by Vic Fangio’s defense. In fact, I like to think of them as a poor man’s 2000 Baltimore Ravens team. No offense to Smith, but if the 49ers had the 2000 Trent Dilfer, I’d probably bet on them to win the Super Bowl, no questions asked.[4] 

Seriously though, this defense didn’t give up a rushing touchdown until week 16 this season. That is truly remarkable. I got a chance to see the 49ers in person when they came to Baltimore on Thanksgiving, and I was shocked as to how incredibly fast their defense was. Led by Pro Bowl linebacker Patrick Willis, the 49ers defense flat-out outplays their opposition. They swarm to the ball with an intensity and speed that I just haven’t seen in a lot of NFL teams. 

Nonetheless, on Thanksgiving, when the Ravens took a 10-point lead in the fourth quarter, there was a palpable awareness throughout the stadium that there was no chance in hell San Fran was coming back, not with Alex Smith as their quarterback. Two months later and in the playoffs, I still feel the same way. If the Giants are able to get up by two or more possessions in this game, I just don’t think Smith is going to be able to carry his team back, not this year at least. 

[1] Obviously Ray eventually won over the fans and hasn’t looked back since. 

[2] Just writing and rereading that sentence made my head hurt.

[3] He’s on pace to finish the season with 897 yards, 9TDs and 0 INTs in the playoffs! 

[4] Okay, maybe that is completely insulting to Smith, but I still mean it.


Ed. note- A previous version said the Pats had not beaten any team with a winning record this year. Updated to clarify that they haven't beaten any team that finished the year w/ a winning regular season record.

Neill Thupari is Began in '96's DMV correspondent, and is finally an official resident of Baltimore.