By Joe Schackman
The field at this years US Open is as deep as ever but here are some players to watch.
The United States Open is, by far, the most grueling golf tournament of the year. It features the biggest names playing the most challenging golf course, right in the midst of the summer heat. While the Masters and Augusta National are often romanticized, it’s the U.S. Open that distinguishes the sport’s truly great golfers.
This year, the tourney is at the Olympic Club, just outside of San Francisco. The course is steeped in history, having already hosted four U.S. Opens with winners that include Billy Casper and Lee Janzen. It also presents a bit of a different challenge: it’s just a par 70, excluding two of the typical par fives. That means that longer hitters have less of an advantage than normal. Instead, the Olympic will emphasize accuracy off the tee, precise iron shots onto the green, and of course, steady nerves.
The beauty of the PGA Tour right now is that the field is incredibly deep. But while any player can win on any given week, these are the 11 golfers likely to be in contention come Sunday.
Tiger Woods
Any list of tournament favorites has to start with Tiger Woods, and the U.S. Open is no exception. He’s coming off a classic win at The Memorial, and finally appears to have settled into his new swing. Now, we’ll see if he’s ready for major championship play.
Pressure in golf affects players a little differently than in other sports. It forces players to revert to their comfort zone, which often involves making the technical mistakes they’ve tried so hard to fix. When the pressure mounts, we might just see Tiger’s old swing creep back. If that happens, you can count him out.
But there’s one big reason to like Woods’ chances outside of the fact that, well, he’s Tiger: He’s been driving the golf ball well. For the first time since 2000, Woods leads the PGA Tour in total driving, a statistic that factors in both accuracy and distance. Tiger used to regularly rank among the best in this category finishing in the top 10 three times between 1997 and 2000. Since then, he’s reached that high just once. If Woods can continue to hit the ball far and straight, he’s the odds-on favorite to win the U.S. Open.
Phil Mickelson
Mickelson’s list of U.S. Open failures is lengthy. He’s finished second on five occasions, most notably when he collapsed in 2006 on the 18th hole at Winged Foot. In high-pressure situations, he has a tendency to go for broke, endearing him to fans and TV execs but ultimately leading him toward some bad decisions.
Yet, there’s no doubting his ability, and because of that talent, he has to be considered a main contender. For every four wood flub into the rough, Mickelson is capable of producing a miraculous iron shot off the pine straw. Determining when to take those chances and when to play conservatively will take control and discipline, and be crucial to his attempt at his first U.S. Open victory.
Bubba Watson
If it wasn’t for the fact that Bubba Watson won the Masters, he would be the hot pick for this week’s tournament. He’s the longest hitter on tour and is surprisingly accurate given his power, ranking 12th in total driving. But what gives Watson an advantage is his creativity. He loves to work the ball left or right in the air and is great at applying sping, allowing him to attack pins that other players have to avoid.
The only question is whether his heart will be in it. Watson might still be basking in the glow from his first major, and the only time he’s played since then, he missed the cut. While there’s no doubting Watson’s talent, he might not be sharp enough to win this time.
Lee Westwood
Westwood (right) currently holds the title as the “best player never to win a major.” He has 13 top 10 finishes in major championships, and if it wasn’t for a missed putt on the 72nd at the 2008 U.S. Open, he would have been in an 18-hole playoff with Tiger and Rocco Mediate. He’s widely considered the best ball-striker on tour, and this year’s course set up puts a premium on golfers’ ability to place their shots. With the pins in some extremely difficult positions, his particular skills could help create birdie opportunities. The main worry, though, is his putting. Westwood’s performance on the green has historically held him back, and you can’t win a tournament without making big putts. But if he can put it together for one week, Westwood could walk away with his first major championship.
Luke Donald
There are many reasons to like the chances of the world’s No. 1 player. He’s accurate off the tee, hits quality iron shots, has a fantastic short game and putts as well as anyone in the game. The course will be sure to reward a deadly accurate player like Luke Donald, and he’s already racked up two wins this year.
However, Donald has always had some trouble with this tournament. Despite finishing in the top five of every other major at least once, he’s never been in contention for the U.S. Open. It’s hard to come up with one reason why that’s happened, and even more difficult to see that happening again. This course was made for him.
Rory McIlroy
Evaluating McIlroy’s chances of a successful title defense is a bit tricky. His performance last year ranked among the most dominant U.S. Open wins ever, but is seemingly the exception rather than the rule. Outside of that week, McIlroy has been streaky, bowing out early or keeping pace late into the tournament but rarely finding himself in between those two extremes.*
This year, he’s won a few overseas tourneys, as well as the Honda Classic, and was in contention last week at the St. Jude Classic. He’s also played poorly on a number of occasions, like his missed cuts at The Memorial and the Players’ Championship.
While McIlroy certainly has the skills to return to championship form, he’ll likely have to wait another year to capture his second U.S. Open.
* This is probably the most under appreciated part of Tiger Woods’ game. He never quits. For a lot of players, when they’re off their games and about to miss a cut, they seem to pack it in, go through the motions and move on to next week. Never Tiger. Whether he’s 10 strokes ahead or 20 behind, he puts maximum effort into every shot. He grinds it out, and that’s what makes him the most incredible competitor in the game.
Hunter Mahan
He isn’t as popular a name as Bubba, Tiger or Phil, but Hunter Mahan (left) could mount a strong case for being the best American player in the game right now. He’s ranked eighth in the world, and won the Shell Open and Accenture Match Play, while finishing 12th at the Masters. Mahan is a quality ball-striker who ranks fifth in greens in regulation and 10th in total driving.Like Westwood, the challenge will be the greens. Olympic has some speedy surfaces, and if those give Mahan trouble early on, he could fall out of the running early.
Matt Kuchar
Kuchar rarely gets the respect he deserves going into majors, despite ranking sixth overall in the world. He’s finished in the top 15 at majors four times since 2010, including a third place finish at this year’s Masters. He also recently took home the trophy at the Players’ Championship.
Like many of the others on, it’s his ball-striking that will give him the leg up on this course. The perennial dark horse has already shown he can win big tournaments, and his first major could be next.
Rickie Fowler
Fowler is a very popular pick this year. He’s young, talented and has played well of late, breaking through for his first win this year at the Wells Fargo Championship. He’s also been a model of consistency, finishing in the top 10 in five out of 15 events so far this season.
Fowler is accurate off the tee, ranking 23rd on tour in driving accuracy while averaging 293 yards per drive. Yet like most of the players on this list, he’s streaky with the putter, placing 61st in putting percentage (one slot ahead of Westwood). If he keeps the ball in the fairway and can get it going with the putter, Fowler has a chance to win this. But without a ton of major championship experience, it’s hard to imagine that he’s able to pull it off this week.
Dustin Johnson
Dustin Johnson has come oh-so-close to winning his first major a couple of times now. He absolutely kills the ball, and has a knack for the top in the toughest of conditions. Part of winning majors is simply remaining in contention long enough to reach that final day, and Johnson has the ability to do that. He held a big lead at Pebble Beach in the 2009 U.S. Open before faltering, was just a penalty stroke away at the 2010 PGA Championship, and came close again during the 2011 Open Championship.
The key for Johnson will be accuracy off the tee. The course won’t reward him just for hitting the ball far, and he currently ranks just 133rd in driving accuracy.Webb Simpson
If you’re looking for a dark horse, then Webb Simpson (right) is your man. He’s certainly not a household name, but that doesn’t mean that this U.S. Open can’t be his coming out party.
Amid all of these great ball strikers, Simpson excels at rolling the rock. He’s 18th in strokes gained putting, and in the top 10 in both putts made between 20 feet and 25 feet and putts made longer than 25 feet. While he’s short on major championship experience, Simpson did finish tied for 14th at last year’s Open, and won twice in 2011, so he knows what it takes to close out a tournament.
Joe Schackman is an editor and co-founder of Began in '96.
