The mismanagement of Stephen Strasburg

By Jake Simpson

The Nationals must choose whether to shut down Stephen Strasburg and risk their season, or keep him pitching and risk his health. It's a tough dilemma, and one that some advance planning could have prevented.

As Stephen Strasburg moves inexorably closer to his 160-inning limit, the debate over his planned shutdown in the midst of the Washington Nationals' World Series run has reached a fever pitch. Medical experts (including the guru himself, Dr. James Andrews) argue that shutting down the 24-year-old ace is necessary to ensure he fully recovers from his Tommy John surgery two years ago. On the other side, teammates and legendary pitching coaches, and even Tommy John himself, have call the team's plan everything from outrageous to pathetic.

What's lost amid all the shouting is that this scenario could have been avoided. But general manager Mike Rizzo and the Nationals' front office didn't expect their team to be this good, and now they're paying for it.

The Nationals announced way back in spring training that Strasburg would be put on a regimen similar to fellow Washington pitcher Jordan Zimmermann, who had Tommy John surgery in 2009. Zimmermann threw 161.1 innings last season without re-injuring his elbow, and this season has the second-best ERA in the NL at 2.54.

Plotting a similar course for Strasburg — the team's most valuable asset — makes sense, both for the organization and for Strasburg himself. And manager Davey Johnson's decision to pitch Strasburg on normal rest each time through the rotation — a move urged by Strasburg's surgeon — also make sense. But what doesn't make sense is starting Strasburg's season on Opening Day and failing to limit his pitch count even as the Nats' hold on first place in the NL East grew stronger.

Why didn't Rizzo, et al, simply move Strasburg's season back six weeks? His "spring training" could have been practice and short starts in the minors in April and early May, with a season debut for the big club roughly 40 games into the season. By the Nats' 40th game, Strasburg had already thrown 48 innings in eight starts. Take that away, and he would be at just 97 innings for the season, with seven starts left before the playoffs. Cap those outings at a six-inning maximum, and the Nats' ace would have had no more than 139 innings pitched headed into the playoffs. That's a good three starts (21 innings) below the 160-inning limit and six starts (41 innings) short of his drop-dead number of 180. He would have enough legroom to get through the playoffs, including a potential World Series appearance.

The counter-argument here is that the Nationals might not be in first place were it not for a steady diet of Strasburg every five days all season. But the Nationals have a deep rotation and could conceivably have spot-started Chien-Ming Wang (a former 19-game winner for the Yankees) at various points.

The simple truth is that Rizzo, Johnson and the Nationals' front office didn't expect the team to do so well this season. They may have hoped for a division title, sure, but it wasn't their expected outcome headed into the season. The Nats finished 80-81 last season, 21.5 games back of the Phillies in the NL East and 9.5 games behind the Cardinals in the wild card race. If there's no pennant race, there's no controversy when the team shuts down Strasburg in September; put the Nats out of playoff contention and 100% of fans would vote to protect their ace. Rizzo & Co. could have hedged their bets and started Strasburg in mid-May, but they didn't.

But even the Nats' existing plan could have been carried out better, especially when it came to pitch count. Pitch counts are actually more important than innings counts during the Tommy John recovery process, which makes sense when you think about it. The cumulative wear and tear of a season on a surgically repaired elbow — what Dr. Andrews calls "seasonal fatigue" — is a result of each pitch thrown, not each inning completed.

The Nats, though, managed Strasburg's pitch count even worse than his innings counts. He's tied for 60th in innings pitched (145.1), but is closer to the league leaders in pitches thrown (53rd in the MLB with 2,359 pitches). Of the 3,760 pitches Strasburg has thrown in his career, 62.7% have come this season. By comparison, 61.2% of his career innings pitched have come this year. Strasburg's pitch count in each game should have been paramount. And yet there he was in August, topping the 100-pitch mark in three consecutive starts in July and throwing 119 pitches in a 7-4 win over the Red Sox on June 8, 32 of which came in the sixth inning with Nats up 7-2. When you're managing an asset as valuable as Strasburg, sloppiness like letting him pitch unnecessary innings shouldn't happen. There can't be any throwaway innings, or pitches, all season when the stakes are this high.

The Nationals have no choice to shut Strasburg down come mid-September. It's simply the best move for both athlete and team in the long term. But it didn't have to be this way. Washington failed to get creative with Strasburg's early-season work and was not aggressive enough in limiting his pitch counts during the season. Come October, the Nats will pay the price.

Jake Simpson is a sportswriter for TheAtlantic.com and operates a New York Yankees blog. He fondly remembers 1996 as the year he refused to go to bed during Game 4 of the World Series.