Credit: News Tribune
By Joe Schackman
Jimmy Clausen over Ryan Tannehill...? No seriously, it makes sense.
Jimmy Clausen over Ryan Tannehill...? No seriously, it makes sense.
If you fell asleep during Economics 101, let me give you a quick supply and demand lesson. When demand for a certain product or service is extremely high but in very short supply, the price of that product skyrockets. This is what causes parents to go crazy around the holidays while they search for the hottest toys, and it’s why neurosurgeons are so well paid. It’s also why quarterbacks like Ryan Tannehill get drafted in the top 15 every year.
Ryan Tannehill, the senior quarterback who starred at Texas A&M this past season, is soon going to be a very rich man. Thanks to a final season at A&M in which he threw for over 3,700 yards and 29 touchdowns in a pro-style offense, Tannehill has seen his stock skyrocket over the last few weeks as teams scramble to fill their quarterback need.
But despite Tannehill’s strong numbers last season, there are some serious concerns. Tannehill lacks the experience you’d like to see in a future NFL starter. He was stuck behind Stephen McGee and Jerrod Johnson until senior year. The two are now backups for the Cowboys and Steelers, respectively. He also turned the ball over far too frequently, throwing 15 picks last season. That’s one interception less than Sam Bradford threw during his entire college career.
In scouts eyes, though, the past numbers pale in comparison to Tannehill’s potential, and it’s that potential that has him shooting up the draft board. His large, athletic body is ideal for playing quarterback. He has a strong arm and can make almost any throw on the field. He’s a raw player, and if developed properly, he could become a very good NFL starter. Unfortunately, that development will likely never happen.
Each season it becomes more evident that to win on Sundays, you have to have an effective passing offense. And moving the ball through the air starts and ends with a quality quarterback. But the problem is that there are not nearly enough good quarterbacks available to match the demand for them, and without 32 starter-quality signal callers on the market, teams become desperate. They overdraft and then overpay for players like Christian Ponder or Blaine Gabbert.
But despite Tannehill’s strong numbers last season, there are some serious concerns. Tannehill lacks the experience you’d like to see in a future NFL starter. He was stuck behind Stephen McGee and Jerrod Johnson until senior year. The two are now backups for the Cowboys and Steelers, respectively. He also turned the ball over far too frequently, throwing 15 picks last season. That’s one interception less than Sam Bradford threw during his entire college career.
In scouts eyes, though, the past numbers pale in comparison to Tannehill’s potential, and it’s that potential that has him shooting up the draft board. His large, athletic body is ideal for playing quarterback. He has a strong arm and can make almost any throw on the field. He’s a raw player, and if developed properly, he could become a very good NFL starter. Unfortunately, that development will likely never happen.
Each season it becomes more evident that to win on Sundays, you have to have an effective passing offense. And moving the ball through the air starts and ends with a quality quarterback. But the problem is that there are not nearly enough good quarterbacks available to match the demand for them, and without 32 starter-quality signal callers on the market, teams become desperate. They overdraft and then overpay for players like Christian Ponder or Blaine Gabbert.
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Credit: The Commish
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These players all have the potential to be good players, but are rarely developed properly. Instead, they’re overpaid at the start of their career by a usually mediocre team that feels pressured to win some games now. The team unwraps their new toy too early, and the speed of the NFL proves to be too much for the inexperienced quarterback.
Even the best quarterbacks can’t be expected to make an impact in their early years. Drew Brees, Aaron Rodgers, Carson Palmer and Tom Brady all sat the majority of their first seasons. Rodgers sat for almost three full seasons behind Brett Favre. The quarterbacks who did start in their first season, like Peyton and Eli Manning, had little success.
The development process is just slower than people care to realize. Brees, Rodgers and Eli all needed at least four seasons to grow into the elite quarterbacks they are now. Kurt Warner went undrafted in 1994, and it took years before things clicked and he became an MVP and Super Bowl champion.
The worst-case scenario is when a team makes a judgment too quickly on a first round quarterback, like the Buccaneers did with Vinny Testaverde. The first overall pick in 1987, Testaverde played in Tampa Bay for a few seasons without much success. The Bucs let him walk in 1992, and from there he went on to make two Pro Bowls and play for 15 more seasons. In 1998, he took the New York Jets to the brink of a Super Bowl.
The worst-case scenario is when a team makes a judgment too quickly on a first round quarterback, like the Buccaneers did with Vinny Testaverde. The first overall pick in 1987, Testaverde played in Tampa Bay for a few seasons without much success. The Bucs let him walk in 1992, and from there he went on to make two Pro Bowls and play for 15 more seasons. In 1998, he took the New York Jets to the brink of a Super Bowl.
Most NFL teams don’t have that kind of time, though. Developing a quarterback is a slow and sometimes painful process, and while fans might tolerate one or two rough seasons, they’ll rarely tolerate much more, especially if a highly-touted, well-compensated quarterback is on the bench.
So what’s the solution? NFL teams should begin channeling their inner Moneyball. There are quarterbacks on the market that were once highly regarded, who now have some experience and can be had for a bargain of the price
So what’s the solution? NFL teams should begin channeling their inner Moneyball. There are quarterbacks on the market that were once highly regarded, who now have some experience and can be had for a bargain of the price
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Take Jimmy Clausen: Clausen (pictured right) was taken with the 16th pick of the second round in the 2010 draft. It was a surprising development for a player who was once thought to be a top-10 choice, but he had struggled at Notre Dame during the Charlie Weiss years.
In the pros, he started 10 games during a disastrous rookie season, and was soon buried on the depth chart, replaced by Cam Newton. It was never a fair audition. When Clausen started, the Panthers were a terrible team, one that even with Newton the next year could only manage a 6-10 record. He never got the benefit of time to develop, or good players to lift his play. Nevertheless, he was quickly cast aside.
Clausen isn’t the only experienced young quarterback on the market who might be had for cheap. There’s Brady Quinn, who signed this past offseason as a backup with the Chiefs, or even Matt Leinart, who’s still a free agent.
These types of players might never match the high ceiling of a prospect like Tannehill, but they might provide substantially better returns relative to their pay. Acquiring one of these guys on the cheap allows teams to use the remaining cap space to build out a deep roster, rather than blowing all that money in the draft on a quarterback still a few years away from starting. The first round pick is also freed up to use on a player that will have a more immediate impact.
Drafting and developing quarterbacks isn’t an exact science. it’s a high-risk high-reward process. But there are ways to hedge your bets and it starts with acquiring an experienced, cheap signal caller.
In the pros, he started 10 games during a disastrous rookie season, and was soon buried on the depth chart, replaced by Cam Newton. It was never a fair audition. When Clausen started, the Panthers were a terrible team, one that even with Newton the next year could only manage a 6-10 record. He never got the benefit of time to develop, or good players to lift his play. Nevertheless, he was quickly cast aside.
Clausen isn’t the only experienced young quarterback on the market who might be had for cheap. There’s Brady Quinn, who signed this past offseason as a backup with the Chiefs, or even Matt Leinart, who’s still a free agent.
These types of players might never match the high ceiling of a prospect like Tannehill, but they might provide substantially better returns relative to their pay. Acquiring one of these guys on the cheap allows teams to use the remaining cap space to build out a deep roster, rather than blowing all that money in the draft on a quarterback still a few years away from starting. The first round pick is also freed up to use on a player that will have a more immediate impact.
Drafting and developing quarterbacks isn’t an exact science. it’s a high-risk high-reward process. But there are ways to hedge your bets and it starts with acquiring an experienced, cheap signal caller.
Joe Schackman is a editor and co-founder at Began in '96
1 comments:
I have to disagree with you. Testaverde was a decidedly average quarterback with one really good year. Other than in 1998, Testaverde never sported a rating about 90.
You might have a point about Clausen and Quinn. Neither of them had more than one full season in which to improve themselves. And although Eli Manning wasn't so good his first year, he showed marked improvement in Year 2 and beyond.
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