The NFL Roundtable: Previewing the 2011-12 season

By Joe Schackman, Adam Cancryn and Michael Bennett


The NFL season starts tonight. The Began in '96 roundtable answered 10 pressing questions about the about the upcoming year.

1. Let's get the run-of-the-mill predictions out of the way first: Best overall record in the NFC and AFC, and then Super Bowl matchup.

Joe: Have to go Packers for NFC. They are just as talented as last year. They get tight end Jermichael Finley and Ryan Grant back. Their defense will be one of the best in the league. Ted Thompson has proved he is one of the best GMs in the NFL, so you can bet they've reloaded with quality talent. And they have Aaron Rodgers, the best quarterback right now not named Mike Vick.

As for the AFC, I’d love to say Jets. But when you have to play the New England Patriots twice, along with Ravens and Eagles, it is tough to have the best record. That's on top of the fact that the team is inconsistent. So, I’m actually going to say the Patriots, as painful as it is. I don’t think the Pats are as good as they have been in the past. But if you assume that the lockout will lead to some sloppy football early, then go with the best coach out there: Bill Belichick.

As for Super Bowl: Jets-Packers. I can’t go against my boys twice.

Adam: It’s hard to pick against the Packers in any situation right now, and the back end of their schedule is what will likely help them to the best record in the NFC. It’s not going to be as easy as you might think, though. With Green Bay getting much of the spotlight this season, you’ve got to believe New Orleans, Chicago and Atlanta will have a game plan ready for Aaron Rodgers and that hyped offense. It’s conceivable the Packers could start 2-3 or even 1-4, and though they’d make the playoffs, it wouldn’t be with the best record. Remember, Rodgers is just a year removed from getting sacked 50 times. The O-line is improved, but the Saints in the opening game could provide the kind of blitzing formula others can copy down the line.

In the AFC, I’m going with the Pittsburgh Steelers. This team hasn’t changed much from last year, and running back Rashard Mendenhall (just 24 years old) could force defenses to focus on the ground game. Meanwhile, Roethlisberger, who managed not to do anything stupid (in public) this offseason, has receiver Mike Wallace over the top and Hines Ward, who’s good for 1,000 yards and seven touchdowns easy. Plus, they get crippled Indy out of the way early (Wk 3) and Cleveland in two of the last four games.

Super Bowl is neither Packers nor Steelers. It’s Chargers-Saints. I firmly believe this is Phillip Rivers’ year, and the Saints have the firepower to rival Green Bay.

Michael: The Falcons won’t necessarily get far in the playoffs, but they will dominate the regular season. The NFC South presents quality opponents in New Orleans and Tampa Bay, but neither team is unbeatable by Atlanta’s standards. Compared with Green Bay, which has to face a surging Lions team and the Bears and Vikings, Atlanta is primed for home-field advantage in the postseason.

In the AFC, the Patriots may be the favorite here, but their biggest rival has the talent in the secondary that they desperately need. The Patriots’ offense has grown too old to keep up with their defensive woes (Chad Ochocinco isn’t that good anymore), whereas Jets' quarterback Mark Sanchez is inching closer to his prime (whatever that may be). Santonio Holmes will shine as the top receiver, and he’ll get more looks without Braylon Edwards. Can’t wait to see the opening night matchup with the Cowboys.

Super Bowl matchup: Packers and Jets.

The Jets are hungrier than ever. The team learned last year that treating a divisional playoff game like the Super Bowl isn’t the best strategy, and it has every necessary component save a consistent run defense to take it to the ‘ship.
I’ll admit it, I got very sick of the Aaron Rodgers crushfest that went on in the postseason. But his championship belt dance is just too good to cast aside. Also, we don’t know how good this guy really is, and I’m thinking he’s in his prime and staying there. If any championship team in the past five years could return to the Super Bowl, it’s this squad.

2. What team and individual player will have the most disappointing season? Most surprising season?

Joe: Team with most disappointing season? Philadelphia Eagles. They are a Super Bowl or bust team, and when Vick gets injured they just won’t be the same. They will still make playoffs, but they have highest expectations and they won’t meet them.

Most disappointing player will be the Titans' Chris Johnson. Again, not that he will be really terrible. But he is showing up to camp late in an already shortened preseason. He has the weight of that new mega-contract. And premier running backs are no longer necessary.

Surprise team will be the Houston Texans. Having been predicted to break out for the last two years, this will finally be the year they win the division. They have the best receiver in the game, a good quarterback, improved pass defense and a premier pass rusher, and the Colts are without Manning for who knows how long.

Surprise player? Cincinnati's Andy Dalton. Not that he will come out and set records as a rookie, but he is going to be solid. He has A.J. Green to throw to, who is a monster. And no one is expecting anything from him. He will be the best quarterback from last year’s draft, and we will get a glimpse of that this year. 

Adam: I don’t think the Eagles get to the Super Bowl either, and maybe that qualifies as the most disappointing. But how about a team with tons of talent that won’t sniff the postseason once again? 

Take a look at the Cowboys. Looks good, right? Sure does, if it’s fantasy football. But a real team needs a real defense and some real chemistry on offense, and I don’t think Dallas has either. The Cowboys had a horrible defense last year that was overshadowed by the fireworks between Tony Romo and Miles Austin. But remember, for all those 300+ yard games, Romo was 1-5 before he got hurt. That’s thanks to the defense, which hasn’t made near enough upgrades to significantly improve. On offense, Dallas appears to have all the tools, but I think they’re one more year from using them properly and in concert. 

Most disappointing player has got to be Maurice Jones-Drew, and it’s not even his fault. Take away David Garrard, and you’re looking at eight in the box on almost every down. If MJD breaks 1,000 yards and/or avoids injury this season, consider it a win and move on.

On the flip side, I like the look of the Detroit Lions. Matthew Stafford showed flashes of brilliance before his injury, and Calvin Johnson and a healthy Jahvid Best make the offense go. As Joe will address later, the Detroit defense could be a monster. Look for a 9-7 or 10-6 record if Stafford stays healthy.

As far as a surprise player, consider him the anti-MJD, a running back that could be helped by an injury. Joseph Addai has increasingly played second fiddle to the Indianapolis Colts’ passing game, but with Kerry Collins under center for the forseeable future, he will have to produce. At 28, I still believe he can, and unlike the Jags, he’ll have an adequate quarterback and above average offensive line to help him.

Michael: The Colts will, by far, be the most disappointing team this season. Peyton Manning’s injuries won’t cease for the season, and Indianapolis has no depth to boost its ground or air game. It will be a sad decline for a team that spend the 2000s at the top of the standings. Indy will miss the playoffs by a mile this year.

I know this irrational, but I’m going with the Browns as the biggest surprise team. Last year, Cleveland showed promise against big opponents, and if they are determined and disciplined the Browns could really catch their opponents off guard. Peyton Hillis will rank in the top five in rushing yards in the NFL.

3. There was a lot of speculation about the abbreviated training camp having some kind of effect on how the season plays out. Any distinct differences we'll see this year that will be a result of the lockout? 

Joe: I don’t think there will be much difference in how teams approach their play-calling and what not. I think what we will see is more emphasis on running back by committee (but we were going that direction anyway), and we will see teams with best coaching staff rise to the top early. Play will be sloppy to start, so the coaches who are the best at game planning and preparing will have an advantage. 

Adam: I agree. I think players and coaches had more interaction with each other than they let on, and there likely won’t be any major differences. I’d look for the defenses to dominate a little bit more early on, and maybe a handful more interceptions than usual  route mix-ups, because quarterbacks aren’t as familiar with their receivers as they should be.

Michael: Teams might be a bit rusty the first couple games, but I think we’re going to see the main effects of the lockout next year when sophomore players are looked upon to step into crucial roles. Rookies this year didn’t get the full development they need, and there are some free agent surprises out there that won't get a shot because teams didn’t have time fiddle with depth charts and development. There will be a large gap between the sophomores who go H.A.M. next summer, and those who are still relying just on their natural abilities.

4. We're about to see the Colts without Peyton Manning for the first time, and it could be a disaster. Is he the most valuable player to his team, or is there another in the NFL whose absence would singlehandedly sink his team? 

Joe: I think Manning is second to Michael Vick, just because Vick's presence is so unique. He does things for an offense that no player in the history of the NFL has been able to do. It's hard to change gears like that if and when he gets hurt. Especially since the Philly O-line is a major weakness. Granted, they have Vince Young to turn to, who is in the same mold. But I still think the drop from Vick to Young is biggest in league. 

Adam: Vick is certainly important, but Peyton Manning’s tenure puts him above all else in my mind. In 13 years, he has essentially written the Colts’ playbook, along with all of the extra unwritten knowledge that really makes than offense go. Someone on Twitter recently said that if Manning misses the season and the Colts get Stanford quarterback Andrew Luck in the draft, Buffalo and Miami are bringing the pitchforks and torches to Indianapolis. Should Manning be out come Week 5 or so, this could be closer to the truth than we’d care to imagine. 

Michael: Like I said, the Colts will be the most disappointing team because we’re unsure about the health (and age effects) of #18. Manning is, by far, the most crucial player for Indianapolis. On that note, I think the Browns would be doomed without Peyton Hillis. He is on the cover of Madden ’12, by the way. 

5. Relatedly, we've seen quarterbacks come out of retirement/obscurity to contribute again in the NFL. Any chance the likes of Tiki Barber, Clinton Portis or other older running backs get a chance should injuries hit? 

Joe: Portis probably, Tiki no. I think we learned with the guys like Tampa's LaGarrette Blount just how unimportant your running back is. The difference between Adrian Peterson and Ryan Torain may be vast, but the difference between your average NFL running back and your backup is not huge. I think you'll see more unsigned free-agents and rookie backs. RBs just take a beating throughout their careers. Age of players in years shouldn’t matter, rather it's the number of hits you have taken. Younger backs, especially guys who left college as juniors, are more enticing. 

Adam: I don’t think either will get the chance. At any other position, there’s a chance. But one that requires the kind of speed, agility and vision as running back has a short window. Teams are more willing to take a chance on someone whose window hasn’t yet opened rather than one who’s hoping theirs hasn’t closed. 

Michael: Old running backs returning present rare success stories. The prime age for a running back, 24, is younger than most positions, so teams would much rather give time to younger talent than try their luck at Tiki Barber or Clinton Portis. 

6. What second year players are you expecting to make a major leap forward? 

Joe: Colt McCoy will establish himself as a solid NFL quarterback. The guy is accurate, savvy and can make plays on the move. He’s got Mike Holmgrem around as well, who somehow made Matt Hasselbeck into a Super Bowl quarterback. I think he will be Aaron Rodgers lite.

Ndamukong Suh is already a beast. But I think he becomes the best defensive lineman in the league this year. The combo of him and Nick Fairley (depending on his health) will keep centers and QBs up at night. 

Adam: C.J. Spiller, in what could be the only good news to come out of Buffalo this year. He showed what he can do at times on kick return and in a couple long runs, and Spiller should get more of an opportunity to prove he can handle a full workload.

I’ll follow Joe and go with a defensive player as well, Jason Pierre-Paul of the New York Giants. The Giants made almost no offseason moves and have been hit hard by injuries, including top defensive end Osi Umenyiora. Pierre-Paul will be given the chance to be an every down player, and should fill in well given the pedigree of those before him. 

Michael: Tim Tebow and Sam Bradford are the obvious standouts for sophomore improvement, but I think we’ll be surprised with just how dominant Ndamukong Suh and Maurkice Pouncey will become this year. Devin McCourty will continue to improve in his second year, and Jahvid Best and Dez Bryant will make big splashes for their respective offenses. 

7. How about rookies? One high-rounder and one low-rounder that should make an impact.

Joe: Well, I already said Andy Dalton earlier so I'll give another guy that way I improve my chances of being somewhat right: Mark Ingram. 

We saw last year how tough it is for a rookie running back to step in and become a standout back with Ryan Mathews, but I think Ingram is a slightly different mold. If he can stay healthy, which was really Matthews' problem, then he will get the carries to make an impact.

As for late rounder, it's Casey Matthews, linebacker for the Eagles, taken in the fourth round. He has a starting role on that defense and his brother is Clay Matthews. He has the pedigree and has the rare opportunity. 

Adam: J.J. Watt in is joining a fearsome front seven in Houston, and should be a great compliment. In the 3-4 defense, some of the pressure is off and he can go all out after the ball carrier knowing Brian Cushing and Mario Williams have his back.

In the sixth round, the Giants took linebacker Greg Jones to round out a developing corps. But as with Pierre-Paul, injuries have decimated the depth chart. Middle linebacker Jonathan Goff is out for the season, giving Jones a chance to compete with whomever the Giants sign this week.

Michael: Nick Fairley and A.J. Green will shine in their first year, whereas Kansas City defensive end Allen Bailey could be a surprise starter from the third round. 

8. There was a lot made about Eli Manning saying he was an elite quarterback. Whether he is or isn't, how many elite QBs are in the league today?

Joe: I think a lot depends on how you classify "elite" and what kind of weight you put behind winning a ring. As for my definition of elite: Rodgers, Vick, Brady, Manning and Drew Brees. However, I think this is the year Brady starts to slip out of that and Matt Ryan starts to move in. Not that Brady will be bad by any stretch of the imagination, but he just won’t be the cream of the crop anymore. 

Adam: Eli’s not elite in my mind because he’s not consistent enough yet. The interceptions need to come down, and stay down for a few consecutive seasons. Elite for me is Rodgers, Brady, Manning and Brees, not necessarily in that order. Vick is another year away, I think, only because he’s only been the starter for one full season. This is the same guy that completed passes in the low 50-percent range for the Atlanta Falcons, and I have a hard time believing all it took was a couple years in jail, a shortened first name and Desean Jackson and boom, pinpoint passer. Let’s see him do it again, and then revisit the subject.

Michael: Drew Brees, Tom Brady, Peyton Manning, and Ben Roethlisberger are the only elite quarterbacks in the NFL. Aaron Rodgers and Matt Ryan are on the bubble, and Matt Schaub isn’t far behind. Eli Manning lacks the consistency that has made all of the aforementioned QBs elite. I expect more from Matt Stafford and Sam Bradford than I do from New York's Manning, and I won’t even start with Joe Flacco and Tony Romo. 

9. Every season is always the Year of the [blank]. In past seasons, it's been the year of the running back committee, or the wide receiver, or the 3-4 defense, etc. What will this be the year of? 

Joe: Well I’m pretty sure ESPN has already arbitrarily labeled this The Year of the Quarterback. So yeah… That? 

Adam: A number of teams have been running the spread offense for a couple years now, but I think this season is when it becomes a full-blown epidemic. It’s easy enough to implement on a shortened schedule, relies on quick passes and sure routes that are young or mediocre quarterbacks’ bread and butter, and requires the kind of quick hit running game you’re seeing more and more of. This is it. This is the year of the spread offense. Enjoy it, because some coach will pick up something else from a college team, and the suddenly the spread will be extinct. 

Michael: Year of the slot receiver. Teams have recognized that the pass offense is the way to make the best of the league’s ever-tightening rulebook. The slot receiver provides a short option that will force linebackers into coverage and avoid secondary talent that seems to improve by the year. It’s the only strategy that completely destroys the Steelers and Packers, and teams adjust their play calling based on the previous year. 

10. Finally, everyone make one bold prediction for the 2011-2012 NFL season. GO.

Joe: Matt Stafford plays 16 games and Lions make the playoffs.

Adam: Ronnie Brown comes back strong in Philadelphia and he and LeSean McCoy become the focal point of the Eagles’ offense.

Michael: As if my prediction that the Browns will be the league surprise this year wasn’t bold enough, I’ll go with Lions winning a playoff game.

That's all folks. Think you've got a more pressing question or a better answer? Throw it in the comments.