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| Deadspin.com |
By Adam Cancryn
The Angels, Mets and Red Sox. Three teams with the same goal, and wildly different strategies.
With apologies to Kenny Rogers, the secret to surviving the MLB offseason is knowing what to throw away and what to keep. Every trade and no-trade, signing and release, is sure to reverberate through the subsequent season, subtly tipping the scales of wins and losses. String a few good moves together, and you've set the franchise on a prosperous long-term path. Yet for every dynasty in the making, it seems there are an equal number haunted by the mistakes of winters past.
These stakes make for a kind of segregational dynamic when the weather turns and ballcaps are replaced by suits and ties. This isn't Opening Day, where hope springs eternal and everyone has a shot at glory. This is business: cold, calculating and jarringly realistic. You're either in it to win, to sell, or floundering somewhere in the middle.
Narrowed down, you're either the Angels, the Mets or the Red Sox.
While others have certainly made moves that could prove momentous down the road, these three franchises captured much of the attention this offseason. The Angels are the proud new owners of center fielder Josh Hamilton, which is the equivalent of buying a Lamborghini to wedge in between your Bentley and Maybach. Sure, it's probably too expensive and not the most practical investment. Hamilton's addiction struggles could sink him at any moment. But when everything is humming just right, it's a rare experience. After all, how many players have found themselves compared to Mickey Mantle? In Hamilton and Mike Trout, the Angels now have two.
There was Twitter speculation that Trout could score 200 runs in front of a lineup including Hamilton, Albert Pujols and Mark Trumbo. That might sound absurd, but consider that he reached 129 runs in just 139 games during Pujols' worst year ever. Maybe 200 is a bit of a stretch, but 180 certainly seems reasonable.
Lost amid all that late-offseason excitement was the fact that Los Angeles also shored up its pitching corps. That unit held the team back in 2012, but Ryan Madson, Joe Blanton and Tommy Hanson should help on the margins and provide significant upside for an 89-win team that only needs a small boost to leapfrog its way to a division title.
With the Angels holding all aces, the Mets can take some consolation in the fact that they are finally playing with a full hand again. General Manager Sandy Alderson warned that the rebuilding process would be lengthy, and on that point at least, the underachieving Mets have come through. But give them points for sticking to a plan, especially amid the typical New York uproar. They chose one fan favorite (David Wright) over another (R.A. Dickey), an accomplishment considering their still-stretched finances. And for all of the botched optics around Dickey's trade, they played the 38-year-old knuckleballer into an impressive haul. By adding Travis D'Arnaud and Noah Snydergaard, the Mets now have long-term solutions at catcher, shortstop (22-year-old Ruben Tejada) and for three-fifths of its pitching rotation. Add in Wright, and it's almost enough to dull the pain of being perhaps the first franchise to let a batting champ (Jose Reyes) and a Cy Young winner (Dickey) walk in two consecutive years. It could be ugly for a season or two, but Alderson and the Mets are hoarding their chips and settling in for the long haul.
Which brings us to the Red Sox, the third big-market player and perhaps the most baffling. The team's main haul so far is catcher/first baseman Mike Napoli and outfielders Jonny Gomes and Shane Victorino, which sounds like the core of a .500 team in 2009 and isn't much more promising in this day and age. Napoli is wholly unpredictable, following a standout 2011 with a .227/.343/.469 line in 2012. He also creates a glut behind the plate. The Sox already have backstops Jarrod Saltalamacchia and Ryan Lavarnway, and this offseason also added human placeholder David Ross. At first base, meanwhile, Napoli's total zone defense was a bruising five runs below average.
Similarly, it's hard to see where the impatient, low-power Gomes fits in beyond a stopgap role. He did hit .480 with runners in scoring position and two outs, but for that to pay dividends, there's a lot of work that needs to be done with the rest of the lineup.
Victorino could be the worst signing of them all. For three years and $39 million, the Sox get an aging center fielder coming off his worst year for a price on par with with what more promising players like B.J. Upton or Angel Pagain are receiving. Not to mention that Boston already has a centerfielder in 29-year-old Jacoby Ellsbury. For those scoring at home, that's four catchers, two center fielders and approximately zero progress toward replacing the talent lost following this past year's epic collapse.
That's the difficulty with getting stuck in the middle, though. The Angels see an opportunity and are throwing everything at it in hopes of a grand payoff. The Mets are folding in 2013 and in search of a more promising future. And the Sox can either bide their time and bleed chips or jump the gun and do something crazy. Either way, you hope they have a plan.
That's how it appears now, at least. Fortunes can turn on a small decision, and the games are far from started. The Red Sox could stage a full reveal that puts all the seemingly mismatched pieces each perfectly in their place. The Mets could grow up quick, reeling off win after precocious win and wash away this year's sour taste. Los Angeles could trip and then topple under the pressure, becoming just the latest superteam to disappoint. The offseason is a crucial time, but ultimately just one hand in a long and unpredictable game.
Adam Cancryn is an editor and co-founder of Began in '96.
7 comments:
While I agree with some of the premise of the article, I actually think that all three teams are heading in the "right" direction, even though they are taking vastly different roads.
The Angels, like the Dodgers and Blue Jays, realize they have a chance to win right now. They are going all in. If they fail (Marlins/Red Sox in '11), we'll most likely see a cliff dive within 5-6 years. If Pujols or Hamilton gets injured, the Angels are handcuffed. If Carl Crawford or Hanley Ramirez goes down, same thing. These teams have their hands full financially, but are giving their fan-bases something to cheer about that they are not wholly used to.
The Mets are taking, in my opinion, a very smart approach. If you look at the NL East, they cannot even pray to compete with the Nationals, Braves, and maybe Phillies. The Nationals and Braves are young and primed to battle it out for the next 8-10 years in that division. The Phillies will always have the money, and once they turn over the aging/injured Utley-Howard era, they will have money to reinvest. And with that pitching staff, they will always compete. The Mets signed their best franchise player to continue to sell tickets and show a commitment to their fans. But they offloaded a gimmicky pitcher who could pitch for another 5-8 years, but the AL East knows a thing or two about hitting knuckleball pitchers (ask any Red Sox fan who grimaced every time Wakefield took the mound). They are retooling their minor leagues with the aim to compete in 3-4 years.
The Red Sox don't have that ability to retool and take a few years off. They realize the next wave of prospects are a few years off (can someone teach Jose Iglesias how to swing a bat?). In the meantime, they still have All-Stars in Pedroia, Ellsbury, Ortiz, and potentially Buckholz and Lester. So instead of selling of everything and going into rebuilding mode, they found serviceable rental pieces to plug the gaps and hope they can get some rebound years and contend in a tough AL East. It most likely will not work, but if that means winning 85 games, that will do for a "rebuilding" year. The contracts are not hand-cuffing the team, and unless they sell the farm to acquire Giancarlo Stanton (can you imagine him denting the Green Monster for the next ten years), they will be content to middle in the AL East for the next few years. I expect them to sell off Ellsbury and Lester this year (barring miracles worked by John Farrell on Lester's career) and get some heavy prospects back. I'm sure Philadelphia would like both of those guys in a pennant race.
My bet is that the Mets start to contend again in 2016. The Angels will win the AL West but don't have the pitching strength to win in the playoffs. They'll dominate that division for the next 5-10 years, but not because of Pujols/Hamilton. Those two will fade into the twilights of the career, but their careers will be extended by Trumbo/Trout. The Red Sox will stay put and finish in 2nd-4th for the next 3-4 years until Ortiz has retired. All that will be left is Pedroia and Middlebrooks, with new franchise players and pitching staff. Expect them to contend in 2015.
I pretty much agree with everything Parker said. At first I didn't really understand what the hell the Red Sox were doing but it seems that they are just, like you said, trying to win 85 games in a rebuilding year. They have the money so why not spend it? They didn't sign Hamilton to five years. No contract they offered was longer than 3 years. Maybe its not cost efficient but they have the money, it won't hamper them down the road. Why not add some talent?
Although I don't think that the Dodgers would be handcuffed if Hanley or Crawford go down. The limits to their spending seems to be endless. Any type of ceiling will be self imposed. Thats what happens when you sign a 6-7 billion dollar TV contract.
The same somewhat goes for the Angels. Maybe LA needs a third team....
I don't think the talent existed this summer to dole out any big contracts. BJ Upton got way too much, Hamilton is one mistake from throwing it all away, and Anibel Sanchez got a ton of money for a sub .500 career pitcher (granted he has pitched for some awful teams).
Michael Bourn is still standing out there, but no one likes Scott Boras clients. I think the Sox will sign some big names in the next few years, but are trying hard to "be good" after making way too many big mistakes the past few years.
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We currently have 3 writers and cover some of the same content.
I think Sanchez is pretty good. I think when you consider what the Dodgers threw at Greinke and what the Tigers gave Sanchez, he looks like a steal.
Forget the drugs. Hamilton is a 30+ corner OF who swings and misses A LOT. That will be fun in 4 years.
Good points, all. And I'm not passing judgment on the Sox yet, when it's someone so statistically inclined like Cherington, he gets the benefit of the doubt. I just don't think their signings make any sense so far. Napoli and Victorino are on the downsides of their careers (and they were both just above average to start), which would be fine. Except they already have better players at those positions. And yet they're getting starter money. $39 mil for Victorino? If you have that money to spend and you want to pay a center fielder like a starter, why him and not Upton or Pagan? If Upton got too much, Victorino is in the same boat times two.
And why sign Napoli and David Ross? Saltalamacchia and Lavarnway have more upside, and both capable of starting.
So I don't get it. Seems to me there are shrewder places to put your money. That said, give Cherington the benefit of the doubt. He could flip Ellsbury and two catchers and end up with the best haul of the offseason, so the story certainly isn't over. If it were another GM, I'd worry that they're getting stuck into the semi-rebuilding BS cycle the Mets used to do, where they can't commit to being sellers and just end up at 78 wins for six years straight.
And I have faith in Hamilton, even if it's misplaced. Still some of the best raw talent I've ever seen.
I have to think it has to do with the years. Not the AAV. Sure Victorino gets more per year but they are only tied to him for three years. Same with Napoli. And my guess is he will play first in the absence of A-gon and Loney.
David Ross I don't really get.
Again I think its all about the years. The sox can pay anything they want really and for the next 2 years they probably won't be contending for WS. But since none of the deals are long term they won't handcuff themselves when they are ready to make that step.
Hamilton is an AMAZING talent. But hes moving from the Bandbox in Arlington to a hitters park. He strikes out so freaking much. I really just seeing it getting bad over the next five years.
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