A stunning reversal

By Adam Cancryn

Just a year removed from a 93-loss season, the Cleveland Indians are suddenly in the thick of the pennant race. How exactly have they engineered such a turnaround? And will this good run last? A wonky look at why the Indians are winning again.

Starts like the one the Cleveland Indians had this year are often accompanied by a certain species of cliché.

The team “shakes of a sluggish start” that saw two opening-season losses by a combined score of 23-13. Then suddenly they are “quick out of the gate” with a 20-8 record in early May, punctuated by eight dominant innings from Fausto Carmona. Nearly a month later, the Indians are looking down from their perch on top of a five-game division lead as “surprise contenders,” a veritable “Cinderella Story” and a “force to be reckoned with.”

The players themselves, well, they’d finally “clicked,” “jelled” and “put it all together.”

There is no doubt the Indians have done that, and more. What is not as apparent is just how they’ve done it. From game to game, it seems clear enough: some timely hitting here, a quality start there, a few blowouts sprinkled in between. But take a step back and the winning formula becomes a little more puzzling.

The Indians have the fourth-worst batting average in the American League, and the on-base percentage and slugging aren’t too pretty either. So where are the hits coming from?

Two-fifths of the starting rotation have combined for a 7-16 record, with a 5.84 ERA. As a whole, the pitching staff strikes out just 6.3 a game, good for next to last in their league. So where are all those dominant performances?

The answer, as it often is, is in the details. And the details reveal a team that is not as much winning, but surviving, gripping tight to the rails and hoping to high heaven they can find a solution before they crash.

Through 102 games, the Indians are 52-50, second in the AL Central and within striking distance of the shaky Detroit Tigers for a postseason spot. They have gotten to this point partly in the manner many smaller-market teams have in the past: by playing above-average defense. Outfielders Michael Brantley and Shin-Soo Choo have led the way, with advanced fielding statistics ranking their play as worth a combined 17 runs above the average outfielder. By comparison to the rest of the AL, they are the fifth- and seventh-best among those patrolling the grass.

The Indians are more than solid at the rest of the positions too, putting them first in all of baseball when it comes to total fielding runs above average, with 32 (even when factoring in shortstop Asdrubal Cabrera, whose 12 ESPN Web Gems can’t save him from a -3 rating).

That stellar fielding makes a difference for any team, but especially one that pitches like the Indians. The staff not only doesn’t strike hitters out, it also doesn’t walk many, meaning potential runs are more frequently the product of a string of batted balls that it is the defense’s job to take care of.

Thanks to the superb defense, games are kept closer than normal (a 5-4 lead becomes a more manageable 5-3 lead, for example), allowing the true second strength for the 2011 Indians to shine.

As inconsistent as much of the starting rotation has been, the relief corps has impressed. The young group of late-inning specialists is enjoying a collective career year, locking down the second half of games and preserving leads for All-Star closer Chris Perez. This is not a team that wins comfortably, as evidenced by the negative one-run differential between runs scored and runs allowed. Those last three or four innings are where the Indians have distinguished themselves, successfully walking the tightrope enough times to keep their record on the right side of .500.

Lastly, and perhaps most importantly, Cleveland has beaten the teams they are supposed to beat. By refusing to play down to the level of the likes of the Baltimore Orioles, Cincinnati Reds, Seattle Mariners and Kansas City Royals, the Indians compiled a 21-5 record against the four and used them as stepping stones back into contention whenever the team faltered.

Now, with 60 games left in the season, it is up to them to maintain their edge and finish off a “magical” year. But for all the things that went right the first 102 times, those same things are likely to play major roles in a late-season slide that would drop the Indians out of the playoffs and possibly put them on track for a third straight losing season.

The deeper into the season teams go, the more everything begins to even out. Streaky hitters batting over .400 drop into a slump and end up with an average in the low .300s. A 6-0 start for a pitcher will not extrapolate out to a 19-0 season. There are too many variables, too many highs and lows over six months of baseball.

For the Indians, the first half of their season will likely be seen as the high. The defense kept them in games despite inconsistent pitching and a mediocre lineup. The relievers handled a heavy workload while barely breaking a sweat. And it is hard to ask for more than 20 games versus the AL’s three cellar dwellers, plus another six against the 50-54 Reds.

But as the innings pile up, the cracks the Indians have so far concealed will begin to materialize. For as good as the defense is, the back-end of the rotation is worse. Carlos Carrasco and Mitch Talbot are not legitimate starters for a playoff team, and neither is the unpredictable Carmona. As the season grows older and more is put on the line, their performances are more likely to deteriorate rather than improve. Justin Masterson has assumed the role of bona fide ace, but Cleveland will need more than one sure thing every five days to make it in this year’s pitching-dominated league.

Similarly, the team cannot expect its bullpen to maintain its effectiveness under so much stress. The Indians have gotten 16 wins from their relievers, most in the AL, and rank fourth in relief appearances. That much activity will test the durability of their five main relievers, who collectively average less than four years at the Major League level. 

Yet most importantly once again, the reason the Indians will stumble down the stretch is the same simple reason they looked like world-beaters early on. During the first half, they beat up on the Orioles, Royals, Mariners and Reds consistently and convincingly. But now they have just five games left versus the Mariners, and won’t get to face Baltimore, Kansas City or Cincinnati again this season.

On the flip side, the three teams they had the most trouble with over 102 games, the Texas Rangers and division rivals Minnesota Twins and Detroit Tigers, are going to become familiar faces. The Indians play them 27 more times, making up about 44% of their remaining games. Suddenly, a bloodied and bruised limp to the finish looks a lot more feasible.

Some believe that limp has already begun to show. After a blistering start, the Indians dropped 17 games in June and are 10-13 so far in July, which includes getting no-hit by the Anaheim Angels' Ervin Santana. They sit in second in an uninspiring but clustered division, with just six games separating first from fourth. Three weeks from now, the Indians could be closer to the bottom than the top.

That doesn’t mean they’ve stopped fighting. Highly regarded call-up Jason Kipnis might provide some much-needed infield offense, and a trade for another outfielder and starting pitcher might shore up the team’s major holes.

But those are serious mights for a team holding on to the slimmest of margins, hoping their season doesn’t go “up in smoke.”